Tài liệu Topic exports of germany in the period 2015 to 2022 and suggestions forvietnam

lOMoARcPSD|17838488 TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC KINH TẾ QUỐC DÂN VIỆN THƯƠNG MẠI VÀ KINH TẾ QUỐC TẾ BỘ MÔN KINH TẾ QUỐC TẾ ===000=== Topic: Exports of Germany in the period 2015 to 2022 and suggestions for Vietnam Sinh viên thực hiện : Nguyễn Công Dũng Mã sinh viên : 11211495 Lớp : Kinh tế quốc tế CLC 63A Khóa : 63 Hà Nội – 9/2022 1 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 Table of contents A. Introduction........................................................................................................................................2 B. Main content.......................................................................................................................................4 1. 2. 3. Overview of Germany's economic development, trade and investment.....................................4 1.1. Economy..................................................................................................................................4 1.2. Trade........................................................................................................................................7 1.3. Investment...............................................................................................................................8 Germany’s export...........................................................................................................................9 2.1. List of embargoed countries...................................................................................................9 2.2. Overview of Germany's export in the period 2015 to 2022................................................12 2.3. Types of German export products.......................................................................................14 2.4. Trade regulations in Germany.............................................................................................14 2.5. German export process........................................................................................................15 Suggested to Vietnam from export of German.............................................................................16 3.1. Characteristics of Vietnam's commodity market...................................................................16 3.2. Current status of Germany’s goods exports..........................................................................17 3.3. Vietnam's key export industrial products..............................................................................18 3.4. Export application of the German economy in Vietnam.......................................................19 C. Conclusion..........................................................................................................................................21 D. References.........................................................................................................................................22 2 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 A.Introduction Exports of goods and services represent an important part of a country's income. Their share in real gross domestic product (GDP) varies with the size and openness of countries. Beyond their mere quantitative importance, aggregate exports provide an indication of how well a country is progressing towards integration into the world economy. Indeed, in the " process of converting separate national economies into an integrated world economy " called globalization that took off nearly two decades ago, international trade in goods and services is one channel through which this integration has been achieved. According to the Department of Trade Promotion (Ministry of Industry and Trade), the Federal Republic of Germany is known as one of the most "fastidious" consumer markets in the world. German consumers are often very picky, “conservative” and loyal to familiar brands. An estimated 60% of German consumers are willing to buy the same brand repeatedly (Santandertrade, 2021). Therefore, Germans often prefer to use European Union (EU) products, national and local products. However, in recent times, German consumers have also become more open to international goods. For agricultural products, although accounting for a small proportion of total import turnover, Germany is still the EU country that imports the most fresh and processed vegetables and fruits (US$23.1 billion), tea and coffee. coffee - spice. Flavors ($4 billion) processed seafood ($1.65 billion), honey ($274 million... (according to Trademap ITC data in 2020). 3 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 Germany is the EU's largest economy and the fourth largest in the world. For many years, Germany remained the third largest importer and exporter of goods in the world (after the US and China). According to ITC Trademap statistics, in 2020, Germany's total import-export turnover is 2.550 billion USD (accounting for about 67% of Germany's GDP), of which exports reach 1.378 billion USD and imports reach 1.172 billion USD. The core content of this essay lies in analyzing the export activities of Germany in the period from 2015 to 2022, thereby summarizing and giving ways to develop Vietnam's exports. 4 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 B. Main content 1. Overview of Germany's economic development, trade and investment 1.1. Economy 1.1.1. Overview of economic development German economy - the fifth largest economy in the world in terms of GDP (PPP) and the largest in Europe - Germany is a leading exporter of machinery, vehicles, chemicals and equipment family and benefit from a skilled workforce. Like its Western European neighbors, Germany faces significant demographic challenges to sustain long-term sustainable growth. Low birth rates and falling immigration are increasing pressure on the country's social welfare system and necessitating structural reforms. Reforms by German Chancellor Gerhard SCHROEDER (1998-2005) were needed to address high annual unemployment and low average growth, contributing to strong growth and falling unemployment. These advances, as well as government subsidies and reductions in working hours, help explain the relatively low rise in unemployment during the 2008-2009 recession - the deepest recession since World War II and down 5.3% in 2014. The German government introduced a minimum wage of around $11.60 an hour, effective from 2015. Efforts to encourage and stabilize started in 2008 and 2009 and tax cuts were introduced in Chancellor Angela Merkel's second term increased the total Germany's budget deficit – including federal, state and government budgets – rose to 4.1 per cent in 2010, however spending cuts and 5 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 higher tax collection reduced the deficit to 0.8 per cent in from 2011, to 2012 Germany achieved a budget surplus of 0.1%. Balanced Budget 2014. A constitutional amendment in 2009 aimed to limit the government deficit to no more than 0.35% of GDP per year until 2016 although this target was achieved in 2012. After the disaster The explosion of a nuclear reactor in Fukushima-Japan in March 2011, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced in May 2011, eight of the country's 17 nuclear reactors would have to be shut down immediately. and the remaining plants will close in 2022. Germany hopes to replace nuclear power with renewables, which account for about 34% of total energy consumption, up from 9% in 2000. With the closure of eight plants, Germany was dependent on nuclear energy, which accounted for 23% of electricity supply and 46% of electricity generation. 1.1.2. Germany's key economic sectors Germany is one of the leading industrialized countries in the world, ranked 4th in the world after the US, China and Japan in GDP, ranked second in the world in terms of exports (in 2012 exports 1381 billion euros, +4, 5%). The main industries are car manufacturing, machinery and equipment manufacturing, chemical industry, electrical and electronic engineering industry. Since 1975 Germany has been a member of the G8. 6 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 Source: Share of economic sectors in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 Industry: The main industries are automobile manufacturing, machinery and equipment manufacturing, chemical industry, electrical and electronic engineering industry. Agriculture: Most of Germany's area is used for agriculture, but only 2-3% of the German population works in this industry. The North Coast region specializes in dairy cows and horses. The foothills of the Alps focus on raising poultry, pigs, cows and sheep. The fertile strip of land along the southern slopes of the lowlands is where wheat, barley, cereals, sugar beets, fruit trees, potatoes, and grapes are grown. Germany is among the world's largest producers of milk, dairy products, and meat. Agriculture in Germany is regulated by EU agricultural policy. Services: Thrives in recent years and now contributes the most to GDP. Frankfurt is Germany's largest financial center and one of the world's leading financial centers 7 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 1.2. Trade Exports are very important in the German economy, employing about 25% of the workforce. Germany is the second largest exporter in the world (after China) with a value of over 1000 billion euros in 2013 and is also the third largest import market in the world (after the US and China) with a about 930 billion USD. Manufacturing and technology products account for 60% of exports, including machinery, electronics, automobiles, chemical products, food, textiles, optical and electrical instruments. The main imported goods are machinery, means of transport, and chemicals. Germany's most important trading partners are the EU, the US, and China. The EU market accounts for nearly 60% of exports. German exports outside the EU, especially to emerging markets such as China and India, tend to increase rapidly. Foreign trade is one of the key factors in the success of the German economy. Exports play a vital role in the German economy and are one of the largest foreign exchange earners. Germany's main exports include machinery, electronics, automobiles, chemical products, food, textiles, optical and electrical instruments. As a country heavily dependent on foreign trade, Germany also imports many goods and is the second largest importer in the world. Major imports are machinery, vehicles, chemicals, tobacco, food, beverages, metals and petroleum products. 1.3. Investment Germany has an attractive investment environment thanks to its possession of many technologies, know-how, a geopolitical position in the heart of Europe, highquality infrastructure, mature legislation, and high-quality human resources. Due to rising labor costs, Germany has the advantage of attracting investment in industries that use technology and capital, and gradually loses its advantage in industries that 8 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 use labor. Corporate tax reforms at par with the world average provide a certain advantage for reducing investment costs in Germany, helping Germany to remain attractive for investment. Germany is also a big investor holding a lot of source technology. Every year, Germany invests abroad about 30-45 billion euros, mainly focusing on EU countries and China. Since 1998, Germany has started to focus on providing ODA to a few key countries. Germany's ODA recipients include about 70 countries, divided into two categories: focus countries and development partner countries. Germany's annual ODA budget is around 3-4 billion Euros for various sectors. Currently, German development aid accounts for 0.28% of GDP. Germany has committed to spend 0.33% of GDP on development aid and is striving to achieve the year target of 0.7% of GDP by 2015 on development aid in line with the target set by the United Nations. 2. Germany’s export 2.1. List of embargoed countries For foreign policy or security policy reasons, restrictions, some of which are considerable, have been placed on certain countries, which curb trade with the country concerned. Whether exports may be made from Germany therefore also depends on the destination of an export shipment. Basically, there are three categories of embargo measures: Arms embargo - prohibits the export of armaments to the country concerned, usually based on Section 74 of the German Foreign Trade and Payments Ordinance 9 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 Partial embargo - specific prohibitions and limitations of trade with the country concerned, as laid down by European Union regulations Total embargo - all trade is prohibited, as laid down in European Union regulations Depending on the objective of the specific trade restriction, the type and extent of the embargo rules include various restrictions and prohibitions which supplement or strengthen other restrictions laid down elsewhere, and which are not limited to the country of destination. Usually within the framework of the country-specific embargo measures additional prohibitions or authorisation requirements for the export of products to the country concerned are introduced, as well as a variety of other restrictions which confine foreign trade to a greater or a lesser extent. There is a prohibition on the provision of funds and economic resources to specific individuals, organisations and institutions. The procedures that are indirectly related to an exportation, such as payments, agency services or technical assistance may also be restricted on the basis of embargo measures. The following link leads to a list of all the embargoed countries and a summary of the embargo restrictions that must be directly observed when products are exported. The following list of sanctions imposed on the respective countries is an abbreviated and incomprehensive list for reference purposes only. Legally binding are solely the legal texts printed in the Official Journal of the European Union 10 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 (formerly the Official Journal of the European Communities) and/or the German Federal Gazette (Bundesanzeiger), as amended.  Armenia  Azerbaijan  Belarus (White Russia)  Bosnia  Burundi  China  Democratic Republic of the Congo  Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea)  Haiti  Iraq  Iran  Republic of Yemen  Lebanon  Libya  Mali  Myanmar (previously Burma) 11 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488  Nicaragua  Republic of Guinea  Republic of Guinea-Bissau  Russia  Zimbabwe  Somalia  Sudan  South Sudan  Syria  Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic  Tunisia  Turkey  Ukraine  Venezuela  Central African Republic In addition to the embargo measures that apply to specific countries, several non-country-specific restrictive embargo measures (for example, anti-terrorism regulation, anti-torture regulation) as well as the prohibitions and restrictions of 12 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 foreign trade under the EC Dual-Use Regulation, the Foreign Trade and Payments Act, and the Foreign Trade Ordinance that must be observed. 2.2. Overview of Germany's export in the period 2015 to 2022 Source: The world bank data The line graph indicated the volatility of the amount of Germany's export in the period 2015 to 2022. The first thing to note is that Germany's export altered dramastically in 7 years of research. The diagram shown the amount of export in 2015 was 1575 billion US dollars corresponding to 46.92% gdp of germany that year. The diagram shown the amount of export in 2016 was 1598 billion US dollars corresponding to 46.07% gdp of germany that year. The diagram shown the amount of export in 2017 was 1740 billion US dollars corresponding to 47.17% gdp of germany that year. The diagram shown the amount of export in 2018 was 1881 billion US dollars corresponding to 47.30% gdp of germany that year, 13 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 increase from 2017. The diagram shown the amount of export in 2019 was 1812 billion US dollars corresponding to 46.62% gdp of germany that year, 3.64% decline from 2018. The diagram shown the amount of export in 2020 was 1669 billion US dollars corresponding to 43.42% gdp of germany that year, 7.88% decline from 2019 duo to the effection of covid-19 pandemic. The diagram shown the amount of export in 2021 was 2004 billion US dollars corresponding to 47.46% gdp of germany that year, up to 20.02% increase from 2020. 2.3. Types of German export products Source: Destatis statisticches Bundesamt Germany is a top exporter for vehicles and cars parts, machinery, pharmaceuticals, industrial oils and alcohols. The first place in Germany’s exports is occupied by cars that represent 11% of Germany’s total exports, followed by vehicle spare parts with 4% of the exports. The third place is occupied by pharmaceuticals and aircraft spare parts with a percentage of almost 4. Among other products that Germany exports there are also petroleum, industrial machinery, 14 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 computers, and medical devices. The countries Germany exports most to are France and the United States that import about 8% of Germany’s products, followed by China and the United Kingdom with almost 6%, The Netherlands, Italy, Austria and Belgium with almost 5% and countries like Russia, Spain, Japan and Turkey where Germany exports just a small percentage of its goods. 2.4. Trade regulations in Germany When it comes to taxes, Germany’s taxation system applies import turnover tax (Einfuhrumsatzsteuer) of 19% form countries outside the European Union, and 7% tax for certain categories of products. However, this tax can be deducted as an input tax (Vorsteuer). EORI registration in Germany is needed for companies engaged in trade activities. According to EU regulations there is a Tariff of the Community, also known as TARIC (Tarif Intégré de la Communauté) that enables rules for goods imported from other EU member states, or goods exported outside the Community. Germany has a list of import (Einfuhrliste) with rules for some categories of products that require licenses or restrictions are applied. The tariffs and licenses for these products can be verified online. German VAT registration is required, according to the current threshold. Import and export companies interested in IP rights can start the process for trademark registration in Germany once they are incorporated. 2.5. German export process 15 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 Source: Exporting guide for Germany A German federal agency known as the Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control (Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle, short BAFA) is approved to make the ultimate decision on whether German products are allowed for export. The Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control decides on granting or rejecting an authorisation subsequent to consideration all the accessible information about the intended use. In various cases the Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control takes such a choice only after political consultations with the Federal Ministry of Economics and Energy and the Federal Foreign Office. Germany is a member state in European Union. So, the member states do have some similarities in trade procedures. Since Germany falls under EU countries, a common trade policy is adopted to import most of the products. A separate rules and regulations are applied to specific products when importing and exporting in the European Union called Integrated Tariff of the European Communities (TARIC code). An EORI number is compulsory for any import, export or transit in EU 16 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 countries. EORI means Economic Operator Registration and Identification. The European Union (EU) legislation has required all member states to adopt the Economic Operators Registration and Identification (EORI) scheme. All importers, exporters and other transporters need to use a unique EORI reference number in all electronic communications with Customs and other government agencies involved in the international trade. This means that anyone involved with export, transit or import operations need to have EORI number. 3. Suggested to Vietnam from export of German 3.1. Characteristics of Vietnam's commodity market Market size Vietnam is a developing country with a high economic growth rate in the region and in the world. According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Vietnam's average GDP growth in the period 2011-2020 was 5.96%. In 2020, although the economy was negatively affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, Vietnam's GDP still grew by 2.91%, reached USD 271.2 billion while many countries in the world had negative GDP growth. This figure shows that Vietnam has succeeded in controlling the pandemic and minimizing negative impacts on the economy. Vietnam is in the process of transforming its economy from backward agriculture to modern industry. At the same time, Vietnam is also an exportoriented economy, with exports playing an increasingly important role in gross domestic product. Therefore, the demand for modern machinery, equipment and raw materials for production, export and construction has increased. With a total population of nearly 100 million people and the average GDP per capita of about USD 2,786/person in 2020 (World Bank, 2021), Vietnam is becoming a large and potential consumer market for foreign consumer goods. As a country with a young population (about 55.5% of the population under the age of 35), Vietnam has diverse consumption needs and Vietnamese consumers have quickly grasped new 17 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 and modern consumption trends. Vietnam's middle class is forming with about 13% of the current population and is expected to increase to about a third of the population by 2026 (World Bank, 2021). This class has modern shopping habits and high demand for quality products. 3.2. Current status of Germany’s goods exports Germany is known as one of the world's leading developed economies with extremely vibrant trade activities. According to the World Bank, in 2020, Germany's trade accounted for 81.1% of this country's GDP, of which exports of goods and services accounted for 43.4% of GDP. For many years, Germany has always maintained the 3rd largest export country in the world (after China and the US). In 2020, despite being heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, Germany's exports still reached USD 1,377.9 billion, accounted for 8% of total exports worldwide. The German economy is mainly concentrated in manufacturing and service sectors. German industry is highly specialized, with modern and high technology that can develop and manufacture many sophisticated and complex products, especially new technological equipment. Germany's strong industrial sectors include the manufacturing of aircraft, spacecraft, automobiles, mechanical machinery, electronic equipment, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals. These are also products that Germany exports a lot to the world (Table 12). Most of the products exported from Germany are considered to be of good quality, diverse in models and types... In particular, German automobiles are very popular with consumers around the world (including Vietnam). German automobiles now account for nearly 19% of the world's total automobile exports (World's Top Exports). 3.3. Vietnam's key export industrial products In the 2016-2020 period, in general, the export of machinery, equipment, tools and other spare parts to most markets has increased, with the main markets being: 18 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 the US, EU, Japan, Korea, China. China, India, and Hong Kong account for about 65% of the country's total export turnover of this item. Among the big markets mentioned above, the proportion of export turnover of machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts to the US market tends to increase; EU and Korean markets are relatively stable; while the proportion of export turnover to Japan, China, India and Hong Kong markets tend to decrease. According to the results of the report "Assessment of Vietnam's export potential", the largest export potential belongs to the following categories: cashew nuts, petroleum, furniture, coal, footwear... Next are handicraft products, seafood, rubber, shipbuilding, glass, coffee, agricultural machinery, pepper, household appliances, toys and garments. 3.4. Export application of the German economy in Vietnam We all know that Germany also has a very developed agriculture sector. More than 80% of the country's territory is used for agricultural and forestry purposes. The value of German agricultural and food exports amounted to EUR 50 billion in 2019 (german-meat.org, 2019), with key export products including chocolate, cheese, pork, confectionery and some other processed foods. Taking advantage of that, Germany has become a country with a highly dependent economy and agricultural exports. The retail market’s key characteristics are consolidation, market saturation, strong competition and low prices. Germany is an attractive and cost-efficient location in the center of the EU. While many consumers are very price sensitive, the market also provides many wealthy consumers who follow value-for-money concepts. These consumers are looking for premium quality products and are willing to pay higher prices. Germany still has some of the lowest food prices in 19 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected]) lOMoARcPSD|17838488 Europe, and German citizens spend only about 14 percent of their income on food and beverages. Low food prices are a result of high competition between discounters and the grocery retail sale segment. Fish and fishery products enjoy growing popularity in Germany. The German market offers lucrative opportunities for fish and seafood products. Fish consumption is growing as consumers associate fishery products with a healthy diet. The best prospects for U.S. seafood exports are Alaska pollock, salmon, caviar substitutes, hake, cod, dogfish, shrimps, crabs, cuttlefish and squid, sea urchin, catfish, lobster, and scallops. By value, the two most important U.S. fishery export products to Germany are Alaska pollock and salmon. Looking at the German and Vietnamese economies, we are also making significant changes in the field of agricultural exports. According to the report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the total export turnover of agriculture, forestry and fishery in the first 6 months of 2022 reached US $ 27.88 billion, up 13.9% over the same period in 2021, of which the US , China and Japan are the most Vietnamese agricultural products market. Accordingly, the main agricultural group of 11.37 billion USD (up 8.8%), the main forest product of 9.1 billion USD (up 3%), aquatic products 5.8 billion USD (up 40.8%), blankets Raising 176 million USD (down 15.9%), input production of 1.42 billion USD (up 64.8%) Notably, due to the expansion of the export market, there are 9 products, the product group with high export value and reach over 1 billion USD including coffee, rubber, cashew, vegetables, rice, pangasius, Shrimp, wood products, inputs for production. 20 Downloaded by hây hay ([email protected])