MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING OF VIETNAM
UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY
[Company name]
[Document title]
TU THI KIM THOA
[Document subtitle]
Firms’ Investment – Cash Flow Relationship
In The Context Of State Ownership And
Banking System Reform In Vietnam
DOCTORAL THESIS
Kim Thoa Tu Thi
Ho Chi Minh City, June 2020
[Date]
i
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING OF VIETNAM
UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY
TU THI KIM THOA
Firms’ Investment – Cash Flow
Relationship In The Context Of State
Ownership And Banking System
Reform In Vietnam
DOCTORAL THESIS
Specialization: Finance and Banking
Code: 9340201
Supervisors:
VU VIET QUANG, Ph.D.
NGUYEN THI UYEN UYEN, Ph.D.
Kim Thoa Tu Thi
[Date]
Ho Chi Minh City, 2020
ii
STATEMENT OF AUTHORSHIP
I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and except where due
reference is made; this thesis contains no material previously published or written
by another person(s).
This thesis does not contain material extracted in whole or in part from a
thesis or report presented for another degree or diploma at University of Economics
Ho Chi Minh City or any other education institution.
Tu Thi Kim Thoa
June 2020
iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
First and foremost, I would like to express deepest gratitude to my
supervisors, Dr. Vu Viet Quang and Dr. Nguyen Thi Uyen Uyen, for their continual
guidance and mentorship, invaluable support, remarkable patience, useful feedback,
and spiritual encouragement during the completion of my thesis. My thesis can not
be completed without their supervisions, which provided me with much precious
advice to expedite my thesis completion.
I would like to thank the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City for its
generous financial support of my PhD studies. I also wish to thank all the colleagues at
the UEH School of Finance, School of UEH Graduates and others for their great and
continuing encouragement and full support during my PhD candidature.
My gratitude also goes to my colleagues at UEH who have constantly given a
great help, support and encouragements to me not only during but also before the
completion of my thesis.
Finally and most importantly, I would like to thank my friends and family for
their
unconditional
love,
immense,
constant
and
endless
support
and
encouragements during my life. I would have been unable to finish the thesis
without their supports and encouragement. And I also wish to dedicate this thesis to
my late mother who is always in my heart.
i
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABBREVIATIONS............................................................................................i
LIST OF TABLES............................................................................................ii
LIST OF FIGURES...........................................................................................v
ABSTRACT.....................................................................................................vi
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION..................................................................... 1
1.1. Thesis motivations.........................................................................................1
1.2. Thesis objectives............................................................................................5
1.3. Firm’s investment – cash flow relationship in the context of state ownership
in Vietnam................................................................................................................. 5
1.3.1. Objectives and hypotheses....................................................................5
1.3.2. Data......................................................................................................6
1.3.3. Methodology.........................................................................................6
1.3.4. Empirical findings................................................................................7
1.3.5. Contributions........................................................................................7
1.4. Firm’s investment – cash flow relation in the context of banking system reform
in Vietnam................................................................................................................. 8
1.4.1. Objectives and hypotheses....................................................................8
1.4.2. Data......................................................................................................9
1.4.3. Methodology.........................................................................................9
1.4.5. Contributions...................................................................................... 10
1.5. Thesis structure............................................................................................ 10
CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW ON VIETNAM’S ECONOMIC REFORMS....11
2.1. Overview on Vietnam’s economy................................................................ 12
2.2. Overview on equitization of state owned enterprises of Vietnam.................20
2.3. Overview on Vietnam’s banking system reform.......................................... 24
2.4. Chapter summary......................................................................................... 29
ii
CHAPTER 3: FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS AND INVESTMENT: A
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND LITERATURE REVIEW...............31
3.1. Theories of investment................................................................................. 33
3.1.1. The Modigliani-Miller Theorem (MM)............................................... 34
3.1.2. Neo-classical model............................................................................ 34
3.1.3. Sales accelerator model...................................................................... 35
3.1.4. Tobin’s Q model................................................................................. 36
3.1.5. The Euler model.................................................................................. 38
3.2. Financial constraints and investment: a literature review.............................39
3.2.1. Financial constraint and investment................................................... 39
3.2.2. State Ownership and Investment–Cash Flow Relations......................48
3.2.3. Banking system reform and investment – cash flow relation..............50
3.2.4. Financial leverage, growth opportunity and investment relation.......51
3.3. Chapter summary......................................................................................... 53
CHAPTER 4: FIRM’S INVESTMENT – CASH FLOW RELATIONSHIP IN
THE CONTEXT OF STATE OWNERSHIP IN VIETNAM.........................54
4.1. The study introduction.................................................................................. 55
4.2. Literature review and hypothesis development............................................ 57
4.2.1. Relation between investment and cash flow........................................ 57
4.2.2. State Ownership and Investment–Cash Flow Relations......................60
4.2.3. State Ownership and Investment–Leverage Relation..........................62
4.3. Research design............................................................................................ 63
4.3.1. Testing Investment–Cash Flow Relation............................................. 63
4.3.2. Testing the Impact of State Ownership on Investment–Cash Flow
Relations.................................................................................................................. 66
4.3.3. Testing the Impact of State Ownership on Investment–Leverage
Relations.................................................................................................................. 67
4.3.4. Data.................................................................................................... 67
4.4. Empirical results........................................................................................... 68
iii
4.4.1. Descriptive Statistics.......................................................................... 68
4.4.2. Empirical Results................................................................................ 70
4.4.3. Robustness Check............................................................................... 83
4.5. Conclusion.................................................................................................... 92
4.6. Chapter summary......................................................................................... 93
CHAPTER 5: FIRM’S INVESTMENT – CASH FLOW RELATIONSHIP
UNDER THE CONTEXT OF BANKING SYSTEM REFORM IN
VIETNAM...................................................................................................... 94
5.1. The Stuty Introduction.................................................................................. 95
5.2. Literature review.......................................................................................... 98
5.2.1. Investment – cash flow relation.......................................................... 98
5.2.2. Effect of banking system reform on investment – cash flow relation . 100
5.3. Research methodology............................................................................... 101
5.3.1. Hypothesis development and model specification............................. 101
5.3.2. Data.................................................................................................. 106
5.4. Empirical results......................................................................................... 107
5.4.1. Descriptive statistic.......................................................................... 107
5.4.2. Correlations...................................................................................... 109
5.4.3. Regression results............................................................................. 111
5.4.4. Robustness check.............................................................................. 129
5.5. Study conclusion........................................................................................ 130
5.6. Chapter summary....................................................................................... 131
CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION......................................................................133
6.1. Introduction................................................................................................ 133
6.2. Firm’s investment – cash flow relationship in the context of state ownership
in Vietnam............................................................................................................. 133
6.2.1. Research findings............................................................................. 133
6.2.2. Research contributions, implications and policy recommendations . 134
6.2.3. Research limitations and future research directions........................136
iv
6.3. Firm’s investment – cash flow relationship in the context of banking system
reform in Vietnam................................................................................................. 137
6.3.1. Research findings............................................................................. 137
6.3.2. Research contributions , implications and policy recommendations 138
6.3.3. Research limitations and future research directions........................140
LIST OF AUTHOR’S PUBLICATIONS..................................................... 141
REFERENCES..............................................................................................142
APPENDIX................................................................................................... 148
i
ABBREVIATIONS
Agribank
Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development
ASEAN
Association of Southest Asian Nations
ATFA
ASEAN Free Trade Agreement
BIDV
Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam
CPI
Comsumer Price Index
FDI
Foreign direct investment
GDP
Gross Domestic Products
HCMC
Ho Chi Minh City
HNX
Hanoi Stock Exchange
HOSE
Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange
JSCB
Joint-stock commercial bank
JVB
Joint – venture bank
MM
Modigliany and Miller Theorem
SBV
State Bank of Vietnam
SOCB
State-owned commercial bank
SOE
State owned enterprise
US
United States of America
VCB
Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam
Vietinbank
Vietnam Industrial and Commercial Banks
WTO
World Trade Organization
ii
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1
Table 2.2
Main economic indicators of Vietnam, 1986 – 2018
Stages of SOE equitization in Vietnam (1992 – 2018)
19
21
Table 2.3
Credit institutions of Vietnam, 2010 - 2017
26
Table 2.4
Foreign banks’ branches in Vietnam
27
Table 3.1
Summary of Financial Constraint Proxies
47
Table 4.1
Sample structure
68
Table 4.2
Variable descriptive statistic
69
Table 4.3
Differences between non state-owned and state-owned
70
enterprises
Table 4.4
Analysis of relation between investment and cash flow
73
Table 4.5
Impact of state ownership on investment – cash flow
76
relation
Table 4.6
Impact of state ownership on relation between investment
78
and cash flow under different growth opportunities
Table 4.7
Impact of state ownership on the investment and leverage
81
relations
Table 4.8
Impact of state ownership on the relations between
investment - leverage under different growth opportunities
82
iii
Table 4.9
State ownership and relations between investment and cash
flow under different growth opportunities: GMM
84
estimation method
Table 4.10
Classification of state-owned and non-state-owned
87
enterprises using the threshold of 33.15 percent
Table 4.11
State ownership and relations between investment and cash
90
flow under different growth opportunities in which high
growth opportunity is classified by quartile
Table 5.1
Sample structure
107
Table 5.2
Variable descriptive statistic
108
Table 5.3
Pearson and Spearman correlation matrix
110
Table 5.4
Analysis of investment - cash flow relation
115
Table 5.5
Effect of banking system reform on investment – cash flow
119
relation
Table 5.6
Effect of banking system reform on investment –cash flow
122
relation of state – controlled listed companies by different
growth opportunities.
Table 5.7
Effect of banking system reform on investment –cash flow
relation of non state – controlled companies by different
growth opportunities
124
iv
Table 5.8
Effect of banking system reform on investment – leverage
relation
126
Table 5.9
Effect of banking system reform on investment – leverage
128
relation for both low and high growth opportunities
Table 5.10
GMM estimates of investment – cash flow sensitivity
129
v
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1 Annual GDP growth rate for the period of 1986 – 2018 (%)
Figure 2.2 Vietnam’s Inflation (% change of CPI), 1986-2018
13
15
Figure 2.3 Vietnam’s volume of imports and exports (% of GDP),
16
1986-2018
Figure 2.4 Vietnam’s Foreign Direct Investment, net inflows (% of
18
GDP)
Figure 2.5 Progress of SOE equitization, 1992 – 2018
22
Figure 2.6
Number of SOEs, 1995 - 2017
24
Figure 5.1
Fitted value of investment (IK) on cash flow (CFK) on a
112
full sample of Vietnamese listed firms for the period of
2009 – 2014
Figure 5.2
Fitted value of investment (IK) on cash flow (CFK) on a
113
subsample of Vietnamese State controlled firms for the
period of 2009 - 2014
Figure 5.3
Fitted value of investment (IK) on cash flow (CFK) on a
subsample of Vietnamese Non - state controlled firms for
the period of 2009 - 2014
114
vi
ABSTRACT
This thesis applies the style of a series of papers in the field of corporate
finance, which mainly composes of the two stand-alone essays.
The first essay investigates the effect of state ownership on the relationship
between investment and cash flow in Vietnam, a small transitional economy. Using
a sample of companies listed on the both Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchanges
(HOSE) and Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) during the period 2008 to 2015, the Ushaped investment–cash flow relations for both state-owned and non-state-owned
firms are found. In addition, state-owned companies (SOEs) have higher cash flow
sensitivity of investment, which perhaps is due to their socioeconomic and political
responsibilities, poor corporate governance and agency problem. Their growth
opportunities also affect the sensitivity.
The second essay examines the effect of banking system reform, which is
defined by the presence of foreign banks, on investment-cash flow relation in a
context of a small transition economy. I find evidence that the presence of foreign
banks in Vietnam results in decreasing in firm’s dependence on local banks and has
changed their financial constraint. Company investments are less reliant on internal
cash flow in the post reform period. Although overinvestment of state controlled
firms can not be reduced but underinvestment problem of non- state -controlled
listed firms is mitigated due to better accessibility to bank loans. The investigated
relation between investment and leverage is robust for this conclusion.
JEL classification: G30, G31, G32
Keywords: financial constraints, investment – cash flow relations, state ownership,
banking system reform, small transition economy.
1
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
This thesis applies the style of a series of papers in the field of corporate
finance, which mainly composes of the two stand-alone essays. This chapter
summarizes the content of the thesis, which brieftly presents the thesis’ motivations,
objectives, methodologies, contributions and structure. Section 1.1 presents the
thesis motivations on impact of financial constraints, particularly state ownership
and banking system reform on firm’s investment – cash flows of a transition
economy, Vietnam. Section 1.2 introduces the research objectives. Section 1.3 and
Section 1.4 respectively summarize the two essays: firm’s investment – cash flow
relation under the context of state ownership in Vietnam and firm’s investment –
cash flow relation under the context of banking system reform in Vietnam. Finally,
Section 1.5 presents the structure of the thesis.
1.1. Thesis motivations
The thesis was inspired by the following motivations:
Firstly, investment is one of the most important decisions in corporate financial
decisions. The company managers will make all of efforts to conduct positive NPV
investment opportunities because these investmens are expected to increase the firm
value. Beside availability of positive NPV investment opportunities, the availability of
financing funds (internal or/and external) is another important factor affecting the
firm’s investments. Therefore, relationship between investment and cash flows,
especially in the context of financial constraints have attracted
2
interests of many scholars. Fazzari, Hubbard, Petersen, Blinder, and Poterba (1988)
show that financially contrained firms have high investment – cash flow sensitivities
because of higher cost of external funds in compared with that of internal funds.
Different types of the relationhip between investment and cash flow have been
found in financial literatures. Fazzari et al. (1988) find the linear relationship while
Cleary, Povel, and Raith (2007) document the non-linear (U-shaped) ones, which
have been confirmed by many other studies (Firth, Malatesta, Xin, & Xu, 2012;
Guariglia, 2008; Tsai, Chen, Lin, & Hung, 2014). So, there is no consistent relation
between investment and cash flows found in the literatures. Moreover, the relation
has not been under-investigated for Vietnam context.
Secondly, the investment – cash flow sensitivity is one of commonly used
measures of financial constraint which is defined as a limit in capital accessibility,
either internally or externally. In the context of transition economy like China and
Vietnam, the role of state ownership on financial constraints has been unclear. Many
studies shows evidence that state-ownership does have impact on firm financial
constraints, i.e. investment – cash flow relation (Firth et al., 2012; Haider, Liu, Wang,
& Zhang, 2018; Tsai et al., 2014) while H.-C. M. Lin and Bo (2012) shows that state
– ownership does not help to reduce financial constraints on investment even via the
state-controlled banking system.
Vietnam used to follow the centrally-planned economy which was entirely
dominated by state-owned enterprises (SOEs). This mechanism led the country into
crisis and backward, which required a broad and in–depth renovation of the whole
economy. A comprehensive program which is well-known as Doi moi was introduced
in 1986 to transform the economy from a socialist to a market oriented. As one of the
components of the Doi moi policy, an equitization (privatization per-se) program
launched in the early 1990s has transformed a number of state-owned companies into
joint-stock companies beside for the first time allowing existence of private companies.
A number of private companies (both equitized and non-equitized) has
3
been constantly increasing. However, the government still plays an important role in
a large number of companies by holding a large percentage of outstanding shares at
many equitized SOEs. In the literatures, the impact of state ownership on firm
performance as well as financial decisions is still controversial. Sun and Tong
(2003) report that the privatization program in China improved earnings, sales, and
workers’ productivity at Chinese SOEs but not profitability. Du and Boateng (2015)
assert that shareholder value is significantly affected by state ownership, formal
institutional distance, and reforms in the foreign currency approval system.
However, G. Chen, Firth, and Xu (2009) find that firm performance is enhanced by
certain types of state ownership. SOEs have slow, even negative growth whereas the
rapidly growing private sector significantly contributes to economic growth (Allen,
Qian, & Qian, 2005). It finds that SOEs with a soft budget constraint can easily
access external financing, resulting in lower dependence on internal cash flows than
is the case at privately owned firms (Allen et al., 2005; Cull & Xu, 2003). Firth et
al. (2012) also report that state ownership has an impact on the relation between
investment and cash flow. R. R. Chen, El Ghoul, Guedhami, and Nash (2018) assert
that an increase in state ownership leads to an increase in corporate cash holdings,
which means a positive relation between government ownership and corporate cash
holdings. More specifically, SOEs have higher investment–cash flow sensitivity
than privately owned firms, especially when cash flow is negative. So, whether state
ownership has any impact on corporate financial constraint, specifically, investment
– cash flow relation of Vietnamese companies is still an unanwered question.
Thirdly, in Vietnam, due to the underdevelopment of financial market, beside
internal cash flows, bank loans have been main financing sources of funds for firm’s
investments. However, credit market is not a fair play ground for private companies
due to some historical reasons1 although Vietnam has done several efforts to improve
1Vietnam used to be a centrally-planned economy in which state – owned banks mainly served for stateowned enterprises.
4
the situation. Nhung and Okuda (2015) show that Vietnamese SOEs have an
advantage over privately owned firms in accessing bank loans as well as making a
profit, even after economic booms. The higher accessibility to bank loans, the less
financially constrained the firm is, meaning the lower investment – cash flow
sensitivity. Therefore, banking system reform is proved to have an impact on
investment – cash flow relation (Tsai et al., 2014). In the process of transforming
the economy from centrally – planned to market oriented, Vietnam also has
conducted a number of financial system reforms as a component of overal economic
reform. One of them is to allow the entry of foreign banks to do business in
Vietnam. This does not only come from the reality but from entrance requirements
of international free trade agreements such as WTO also. The presence of foreign
banks on one side would increase competition in credit market, and on the other side
put pressures on domestic banks to improve their transparancy, effeciency and
profitability to be survival and grow in a integrated market. As such, the presence of
foreign banks – which can be considered a measure to reform the banking system –
may have certain impact on companies accessibility to external funds to finance
their investment, or on the other words, firm’s investment – cash flow relation.
Therefore, it also motivates me to conduct this thesis.
The topic of investment – cash flows have been intensively conducted in
financial literatures, but most of them use the samples of developed countries like U.S,
Canada, or China – a big transitional economy. To my best knowledge, the relationship
between investment and cash flows, especially in the context of state – ownership and
foreign bank entry has still not investigated for the case of a small transition economy
like Vietnam. Furthermore, in spite of sharing some cutural, social and political
similarities with China, Vietnam also has many differences such as size of economy,
history of the transformation, openness to the world economy, development of
financial market, etc. Studying the Vietnamese context is believed to be worthwhile
and valuable for international finance literatures because results form
5
the rather specific case of China may not be generalizable for other small emerging
markets. Therefore, I choose to examine the impact of banking system reform, and
state ownership on investment – cash flow sensitivity in Vietnam for my Ph.D thesis.
1.2. Thesis objectives
The general objective of the research is to investigate the impact of financial
constraints, which are measured by state ownership and banking system reform on
the relation between firm’s investment and internal cash flows in the context of
small transitional economy – Vietnam. The general objective is implemented by the
two essays which are separately presented in the following Sections of 1.3 and
Section 1.4.
1.3. Firm’s investment – cash flow relationship in the context of state
ownership in Vietnam
1.3.1. Objectives and hypotheses
The study examines the effect of state ownership on the relationship between
investment and cash flow in Vietnam, a small transitional economy. The study
objectives are as follows:
-
Examine the nonlinear relationship (U-shape) between investment and cash
flows of Vietnamese listed companies.
-
Examine impact of state ownership on the investment – cash flow relation in
general, and for state controlled and non –state controlled firms.
-
Examine impact of state ownership on the investment – leverage relation in
general, and for state controlled and non –state controlled firms.
-
Propose some policy reccommendations to various related parties based on
the research findings
To achieve the research objectives, following research questions are set forth:
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