Tài liệu Risk attitudes and perceptions on extreme weather events of small scale farmers in siniloan, laguna, philippines

THAI NGUYEN UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY NICOLE ALEXIA VERIDIANO DE CASTRO RISK ATTITUDES AND PERCEPTIONS ON EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS OF SMALL-SCALE FARMERS IN SINILOAN, LAGUNA, PHILIPPINES BACHELOR THESIS Study Mode: Full-time Major: Environmental Science and Management Faculty: Advanced Education Program Office Batch: 2015 – 2018 Thai Nguyen, 25/09/2018 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This research would not have been made possible without the help of my advisers namely Asst. Prof. Maricel A. Tapia and Ms. Nguyen Thi Thu Huong, as well as Dr. Nikki H. Dagamac and Gerard Navarro for their statistical help and unnerving faith, patience and support on me. I would also like to thank my family (Mom, Dad, Jules and Kuya Jason) for their support. The Redeña-Santos Family (Tito Jhun, Tita Annie, Kuya PJ, Ate Darla, Carlo, Paulo and Peterd), the Redeña-Valdenarro Family (Tita Issa, Noreen, Noriel and Nhica), the Corpuz Family and the Lanzador Family for their care and support and being my second family in Laguna. I would also like to thank my friends (Carlo, Hannah, Alex, Jeanne, Ate Colleene, Mark and Kuya Jose) for their help when I needed a hand and for keeping me sane in general. NICOLE ALEXIA VERIDIANO DE CASTRO i TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures .................................................................................................................v List of Tables ................................................................................................................ vi List of Abbreviations .................................................................................................... ix Part I. Introduction ..........................................................................................................1 1.1. Research Rationale ............................................................................................1 1.1. Research Questions ...........................................................................................4 1.2. Research Objectives ..........................................................................................4 1.3. Significance of the Study ..................................................................................5 1.4. Hypotheses ........................................................................................................5 1.5. Scope and Limitations .......................................................................................6 1.6. Definition of Terms ...........................................................................................6 Part II. Review of Related Literature ..............................................................................9 2.1. Extreme Weather Events and its Effects on Agriculture ..................................9 2.1.1. Extreme Weather Events ...................................................................................9 2.2. Risk Perception among Farmers .....................................................................12 2.2.1. Risk Perception ............................................................................................12 2.2.2. 2.3. Measurement and Determinant for Risk Perception ................................15 Risk Attitude among Farmers .........................................................................16 2.3.1. Risk Attitude ................................................................................................16 2.3.2. Measurement and Determinant for Risk Attitude ........................................18 2.4. Conceptual Framework ...................................................................................19 Part III. Methodology....................................................................................................20 3.1. Materials ..........................................................................................................20 3.1.1. Farm Survey Questionnaire ......................................................................20 3.1.2. Qualitative Pre-Survey: Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and Key Informant Interviews (KII) .....................................................................................20 3.2. Description of the Study Area .........................................................................21 3.3. Selection of Respondents ................................................................................22 3.4. Data Gathering ................................................................................................25 3.5. Method of Analysis and Data Presentation .....................................................26 ii 3.5.1. Quantitative Analysis ...............................................................................26 3.5.2. Qualitative Analysis .................................................................................26 Part IV. Results and Discussion ....................................................................................29 4.1. Profile of Respondents ....................................................................................29 4.1.1 Socio-economic profile ............................................................................29 4.1.2 Farm profile ..............................................................................................29 4.2. Risks to Farming and Adaptation Strategies ...................................................37 4.2.1. Risks to Farming .......................................................................................37 4.2.2. Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on production .................................41 4.2.3. Adaptation Strategies ................................................................................52 4.2.3.1. Adaptation Strategies to Pests ...............................................................52 4.2.3.2. Adaptation Strategies to Extreme Weather Events ...............................55 4.2.4. Key farm production decisions .................................................................69 4.2.5. Climate’s influence on crop production decisions ...................................72 4.3. Risk Perception and Risk Attitude ..................................................................75 4.3.1. Risk Perception to Extreme Weather Events............................................75 4.3.1.1. Extreme Weather Events experienced by the Farmers .........................75 4.3.1.2. Likelihood of occurrence ......................................................................77 4.3.1.3. Potential loss .........................................................................................84 4.3.2. Risk Attitude to Extreme Weather Events................................................99 A. Number of Adaptation Strategies ....................................................................99 B. Nature of the Adaptation Strategies ..............................................................100 4.4. Analysis .........................................................................................................103 4.4.1. Relationship of Risk Perception, Risk Attitude and Socioeconomic Characteristics of Rice Farmers ...........................................................................103 4.4.2. Relationship of Risk Perception, Risk Attitude and Socio-economic Characteristics of Vegetable Farmers ..................................................................106 4.4.3. Overall results .........................................................................................107 4.4.4. Risk Attitude and Perception and Agricultural Practices .......................110 4.4.4.1. Risk Perception and Agricultural Practices ........................................110 4.4.4.2. Risk Attitude and Agricultural Practices ............................................115 iii Part V. Conclusion and Recommendations ................................................................117 5.1. Conclusion .....................................................................................................117 5.2. Recommendations .........................................................................................119 References ...................................................................................................................121 Appendices .................................................................................................................130 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Conceptual framework ..................................................................................19 Figure 2: Slope map of Siniloan, Laguna highlighting the study areas (CLUP, 2013) 22 Figure 3: Risk matrix ....................................................................................................27 Figure 4: Impacts of drought on rice farmers ...............................................................42 Figure 5: Impacts of drought on vegetable farmers ......................................................43 Figure 6: Impacts of typhoon on rice farmers...............................................................44 Figure 7: Impacts of typhoon on vegetable farmers .....................................................45 Figure 8: Impacts of excessive rains on rice farmers ...................................................46 Figure 9: Impacts of excessive rains on vegetable farmers ..........................................47 Figure 10: Impacts of flood on rice farmers .................................................................48 Figure 11: Impacts of flood on vegetable farmers ........................................................49 Figure 12: Surveyed rice farmers' perception on the probability of different sources of climate risk (1 = very low, 5 = very high). Source: Data on surveyed farmers............81 Figure 13: Surveyed vegetable farmers' perception on the probability of different sources of climate risk (1 = very low, 5 = very high). Source: Data on surveyed farmers ..........................................................................................................................84 Figure 14: Surveyed rice farmers’ perception on the overall potential loss of production in rice farming due to extreme weather events ...........................................87 Figure 15: Surveyed vegetable farmers’ perception on the overall potential loss of production in vegetable farming due to extreme weather events .................................90 Figure 16: Overall risk perception of the rice farmers on different climatic hazards in farming ..........................................................................................................................94 Figure 17: Overall risk perception of the vegetable farmers on different climatic hazards in farming.........................................................................................................97 Figure 18: Overall results of rice and vegetable farmers' risk perception based on the number of adaptation strategies ..................................................................................100 Figure 19: Risk attitude of rice farmers towards extreme weather events .................101 Figure 20: Risk attitude of vegetable farmers towards extreme weather events ........102 v LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Sampling distribution of the rice farmers in each elevation gradient .............24 Table 2: Sampling distribution of the vegetable farmers in each elevation gradient ...24 Table 3: Risk score and their definitions on the probability and potential loss ............27 Table 4: Risk perception risk score multiplying the probability and potential loss .....27 Table 5: Socio-economic characteristics of rice farmer-respondents ...........................30 Table 6: Socio-economic characteristics of vegetable farmer-respondents .................32 Table 7: Farm profile of rice farmer-respondents .........................................................35 Table 8: Farming profile of vegetable farmer-respondents ..........................................37 Table 9: Perceived risks to farming by rice farmer-respondents ..................................38 Table 10: Perceived risks to farming by vegetable farmer-respondents.......................39 Table 11: Adaptation strategies of experienced rice farmers on the impacts of field rats .......................................................................................................................................53 Table 12: Adaptation strategies of rice farmers on the impacts of birds ......................54 Table 13: Adaptation strategies of experienced rice farmers on the impacts of insects54 Table 14: Adaptation strategies of experienced vegetable farmers on the impacts of field rats ........................................................................................................................55 Table 15: Adaptation strategies of experienced vegetable farmers on the impacts of insects ............................................................................................................................55 Table 16: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on drought ........................57 Table 17: Post-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on drought ......................58 Table 18: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on drought ..............59 Table 19: Post-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on drought .............59 Table 20: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on typhoon .......................60 Table 21: Post-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on typhoon......................61 Table 22: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on typhoon ..............62 Table 23: Post-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on typhoon ............62 Table 24: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on excessive rains ............64 Table 25: Post-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on excessive rains ..........64 Table 26: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on excessive rains ...66 vi Table 27: Post-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on excessive rains .66 Table 28: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on flood ............................67 Table 29: Post-impact adaptation strategies of rice farmers on flood ..........................68 Table 30: Pre-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on flood ..................69 Table 31: Post-impact adaptation strategies of vegetable farmers on flood .................69 Table 32: Factors that influence rice farmers’ key crop production decisions .............70 Table 33: Factors that influence vegetable farmers’ key farming production decisions .......................................................................................................................................71 Table 34: Crop production decisions influenced by climate variability and extremities on rice farmers ..............................................................................................................73 Table 35: Crop production decisions influenced by climate variability and extremities on vegetable farmers .....................................................................................................74 Table 36: Extreme weather events experienced by the rice farmers ............................76 Table 37: Extreme weather events experienced by the vegetable farmers ...................77 Table 38: Risk rate of rice farmers on drought .............................................................78 Table 39: Risk rate of rice farmers on typhoon ............................................................79 Table 40: Risk rate of rice farmers on excessive rains .................................................79 Table 41: Risk rate of rice farmers on flood .................................................................80 Table 42: Risk rate of vegetable farmers on drought ...................................................81 Table 43: Risk rate of vegetable farmers on typhoon ...................................................82 Table 44: Risk rate of vegetable farmers on excessive rains ........................................82 Table 45: Risk rate of vegetable farmers on flood .......................................................83 Table 46: Perceived potential loss of rice farmers on drought .....................................85 Table 47: Perceived potential loss of rice farmers on typhoon ....................................85 Table 48: Perceived potential loss of rice farmers on excessive rains .........................86 Table 49: Perceived potential loss of rice farmers on flood .........................................86 Table 50: Perceived potential loss of vegetable farmers on drought ............................88 Table 51: Perceived potential loss of vegetable farmers on typhoon ...........................88 Table 52: Perceived potential loss of vegetable farmers on excessive rains ................89 Table 53: Perceived potential loss of vegetable farmers on flood ................................89 Table 54: Risk perception of rice farmers on drought ..................................................92 vii Table 55: Risk perception of rice farmers on typhoon .................................................92 Table 56: Risk perception of rice farmers on excessive rains ......................................93 Table 57: Risk perception of rice farmers on flood ......................................................93 Table 58: Risk perception of vegetable farmers on drought.........................................95 Table 59: Risk perception of vegetable farmers on typhoon ........................................95 Table 60: Risk perception of vegetable farmers on excessive rains .............................96 Table 61: Risk perception of vegetable farmers on flood.............................................96 Table 62: Summary table of significant correlation analyses on rice farmers’ risk perception and risk attitude on selected variables ......................................................104 Table 63: Summary table of significant correlation analyses on vegetable farmers' risk perception and risk attitude on selected variables ......................................................106 Table 64: Summary table of significant correlation analyses on farmers’ risk perception and risk attitude on selected variables ......................................................107 Table 65: Overall correlation analysis on the relationship between farmers' agricultural practices and risk perception towards extreme weather events ..................................112 Table 66: Overall simple linear regression analysis on the relationship between farmers' agricultural practices and risk perception towards extreme weather events .114 Table 67: Overall correlation analysis on the relationship between farmers’ agricultural practices and risk attitude towards extreme weather events .......................................115 Table 68: Overall ordered probit regression analysis on the relationship between farmers’ agricultural practices and risk attitude towards extreme weather events .....116 viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS % Percent ADB Asian Development Bank CLUP Comprehensive Land Use Plan Brgy. Barangay DILG Department of the Interior and Local Government EWE Extreme Weather Events FAO Food and Agriculture of the United Nations FGD Focus Group Discussion Grad. Graduate IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change KII Key Informant Interview NEDA The National Economic and Development Authority n Number of Observations OMA Office of the Municipal Agriculturist ix PART I. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Research Rationale In Southeast Asia, agriculture is a major source of livelihood in almost every country where approximately 115 million hectares of land is devoted for agricultural production (ADB, 2009). In the Philippines, agriculture provides 30% of employment and 10% of the country’s gross domestic product in 2013 (NEDA, 2015). However, agriculture in the Philippines is highly vulnerable to climate change (FAO, 2017; IPCC, 2014). The increase in global temperature and rainfall variability are expected to have a critical impact on the country’s agriculture sector. Moreover, drought and typhoons increase the regularity of pest infestations therefore intensifying the risks the farmers have to face in their production. In fact, over the last decade, about 37% of the economic impacts of natural and climate-related events was assimilated by the Philippine’s agriculture sector (FAO, 2017). The adverse impacts of climate change such as more frequent and severe typhoons, floods and drought threaten the country’s food security, rural livelihoods and economy since most of the country’s economy relies on agriculture and natural resources as a primary source of income (Redfern et al., 2012), such as small-scale farmers. Hence, climate extremes threaten and disproportionately affect small-scale farmers, which remain to be the poorest members of the population (FAO, 2017). Small-scale farmers produced 80% of the food consumed in Asia and occupy 85% of Asia’s farmlands (FAO, 2012; FAO, 2014). Their significant contribution on an Asian country’s economy will be severely affected by the 1 effects of climate change as well as worsening issues of food security, especially on developing countries such as the Philippines. Small-scale farmers are considered disproportionately vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters because they are often poor, have very limited assets and are greatly dependent on natural resources (Frank & Penrose Buckley, 2012). Their livelihood’s dependence on acceptable temperature ranges and patterns of rainfall makes their crop yields at risk due to climatic variability. Any sudden or unexpected climatic changes directly affect their agricultural production hence, affecting their household’s food security, income and well-being (Vignola et al., 2015; IPCC, 2007; Agriculture: Vulnerability to Climate Change, n.d.). Moreover, the risk associated with their livelihood is high. Farming’s dependence on climate makes small-scale farmers’ livelihood exposed to possibilities of losses of production and uncertainty of return on their investment (Lucas & Pabuayon, 2011). Moreover, they have few livelihood options when typhoons and floods wipe out their production. Although small-scale farmers are well experienced in dealing with climatic variability, the increased variability brought about by climate change is beyond the capacity of traditional coping strategies practiced (Pettengell, 2010). Therefore, as the impacts of climate change is expected to continue to intensify, it is important to enhance small-scale farmers’ adaptive capacity to reduce their vulnerability to these impacts through determining and understanding how these farmers decide under risky situations, which is through understanding a farmers’ risk perception and risk attitude. 2 The risk perception and risk attitude of small-scale farmers towards extreme weather events are very important since these influences how they would respond under risky situations, specifically in risk management strategies. Previous studies revealed that a farmer’s risk attitude (risk-averse, risk-neutral and risk-taker) is the foremost step in understanding the behavior and coping strategies of small-scale farmers to mitigate the impacts of environmental hazards such as extreme weather events (Lucas & Pabuayon, 2011; Saqib et al., 2016). A farmer’s risk attitude towards a hazard is influenced by the farmer’s perception towards the risk (Hillson & Murray-Webster, 2005). Therefore, by better identifying and understanding the risks perceived by small-scale farmers as well as their chosen response to those risks is important in designing improved risk management strategies and policies to improve not only their agricultural production, but also the resilience and capacity of small-scale farmers to current and future extreme weather events brought about by climate change. 3 1.1. Research Questions Given the rationale above, this study aimed to assess and understand the risk attitudes and perceptions of small-scale farmers on extreme weather events, as well as how they influence adaptation strategies and agricultural production. The main goals of the study were to investigate: 1. What are the socio-economic and socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents? i. Location v. Household size ii. Age vi. Educational Attainment iii. Gender vii. Source of Income iv. Civil Status viii. Income 2. What are the climate-related risks in agricultural production and the farmers’ adaptation strategies? 3. What risk do the farmers perceive as they are most exposed to and the farmers’ risk attitudes? 4. What is the relationship between the farmers’ risk attitude and their perceived farming risks? 5. How do the farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics influence their risk perception and risk attitude? 1.2. Research Objectives  To describe the socio-economic and socio-demographic profile of the respondents 4  To identify the climate-related risks in agricultural production and the farmers’ adaptation strategies  To determine the risk attitude and risk perception of the farmers  To analyze the relationship between the farmers’ risk attitude and perceived farming risks, as well as the influence of socio-economic characteristics 1.3. Significance of the Study This study provided baseline information about risk attitude and perceptions of small-scale farmers of Siniloan, Laguna. This information would help in capacity building efforts to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events as well as in designing risk management tools and strategies for farmers to avoid and overcome losses due to various sources of risk. 1.4. Hypotheses Null Hypothesis (HO) The risk perception and risk attitude of the farmers does not significantly influence their choices of agriculture practices Alternative Hypothesis (HA) The risk perception and risk attitude of the farmers significantly influence their choices of agriculture practices 5 1.5. Scope and Limitations The study was conducted from March 2018 to May 2018, in Siniloan, Laguna, Philippines. The focus group discussion (FGD) for each category was carried out in the month of March 2018 while the household survey was carried out in the months of April to May 2018 and the data analysis in the month of June 2018. Although the research has reached its aims, there were some unavoidable limitations that have been encountered during the study: (1) a larger number of respondents was desirable but limited by lack of manpower as well as the availability of the respondents to be interviewed; (2) There was a small number of rice farmers in the upland area of Siniloan, Laguna, hence fewer respondents for this stratum; (3) Gathering the desired number of farmers for the FGD in the upland area since not only was there a small number of farmers as previously stated, but their farms are far away from each other as well; (4) Probable bias seems to be unavoidable since the willingness of some farmers to be interviewed and their honesty when answering the questionnaire is subjective causing now random measurement errors in determining the risk perception and risk attitude 1.6. Definition of Terms Exposure is defined as the people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that thereby subject to potential losses Extreme weather event pertains to an event that is rare at particular place and time of a year 6 Hazard is the potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, and environmental resources. Lowland is an area where the land is at, near, or below the sea level and where there are not usually mountains or large hills. Perception is way of understanding reality and experience through the senses which enables judgment. Rainfed relates to agricultural farming practices that rely on rainfall for water. Risk is defined as the possibility of physical and/or social and/or financial harm/detriment/loss due to a hazard within a particular time frame; Probability of damage. Risk attitude is an individual’s willingness to take risks. Risk-Averse is the willingness of an individual to accept a lower expected return to obtain lower risk. Risk-Neutral is an individual’s discomfort with uncertainty in the long term therefore prepared to take whatever short-term actions are necessary to deliver a certain long-term outcome. Risk Perception refers to people’s perception of the possibility that a hazard will affect them. 7 Risk-Taker is an individual’s willingness to receive greater benefits even if the risk of obtaining them is high. Risk-Tolerant is an individual’s tolerance to uncertainty and has no strong desire to respond to threats or opportunities in any way. They could tolerate an uncertain outcome if necessary. Small-scale farmers are farmers who cultivate small areas of land (usually less than 10 ha, often less than 2 ha) and depend on their farms as their main source of both food security and income. Upland is lands at a higher elevation than the flood plain or low stream terrace. Waterside is an area that is next to a river, lake or ocean. 8 PART II. REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE 2.1. Extreme Weather Events and its Effects on Agriculture 2.1.1. Extreme Weather Events The occurrence of weather events being stochastic is an absolute fact. A special report on extreme events of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found evidence that since the 1950s, there have been clear changes in many types of weather events. The world has experienced more droughts, floods, and storms due to climate change (IPCC, 2012). In Southeast Asia, extreme weather events such as intense rains and floods, droughts and typhoons have been reported to be more frequent and intense in which the Philippines is among the affected countries (IPCC, 2007). A report by IPCC (2014) observed that climate change has significantly affected global agriculture in the 21st century and indicated that most countries, including the Philippines, will experience an increase in average temperature, more frequent heat waves, more stressed water resources and periods of heavy precipitation. The future impacts of changing climate are projected to worsen as temperature continues to rise and precipitation becomes more unpredictable as well as extreme events. These will have greater impacts on sectors with direct exposure to climate change such as agriculture (IPCC, 2012). Agriculture is a risky business by nature since it relies on climate for its production (Agriculture: Vulnerability to Climate Change, n.d.). Due to climate 9 change, the increase and variability in the occurrence of extreme weather events such as typhoons, floods and droughts puts farm productivity at risk by potentially lowering crop yield and limiting farm planting options. Furthermore, climate change expands and changes the suitable habitats for pests, such as rodents, which is the primary pre-harvest pest of rice (Palis et al., 2010), and diseases, and form new combinations as well. Moreover, climate change leads to unpredictable distribution of pests and diseases, thus increasing its risk on agricultural production (Reynolds, 2010). The risks of extreme weather events increase the overall cost of agricultural production by declining the production output, hence decreasing food supply and income of the farmers. Therefore, the negative impacts of climate change on agriculture threaten food security and income of small-scale farmers in the affected areas. This is particularly true in the Philippines wherein they operate under a risky and uncertain situation. Eiser et al. (2012) stated that some communities are more vulnerable, or resilient, than others due to the physical features of an environment (e.g. susceptibility to storms or floods) as well as the adaptive or maladaptive responses of the individuals and communities to such hazards. It is therefore needed to raise the resilience and adaptive capacity of small-scale farmers to the risks in their production to ensure the safety of their livelihood, income, food security, as well as the economy of the Philippines. 10