Tài liệu Nợ công việt nam những vấn đề cần bàn thêm

hh±ig c”6h thém TS. Lé Pha”n Thi Di8c Théo an khiing ho3ng tar chinh cong trén GDP cao nhat the gi‹ i, toltn cau (2008), np cfing va Moi lién ket vi“en khfing hoang nq cfing da tro troeg EU dang bj de de dpa bet VI guy m8 rig c8ng trong khiing hoang np cling, Théng Theo cong bfi cua Tqp chi Kinh c$c bin tin kinh te nfii chung va 4/2011, noi céc c.d a Chinh phii té The Economist, ty 1e) up cf›ng tai chinh not riéng. Trong thdi My bit deng v1nq cling. Tai Vi(t nilm 2010 ciia Vi t Nam la 50,935 gran gan day, rig cong khf›ng chi Nam, theo World Factbook cfia ty USD tilting duoog 51.6W GDP: la nbi In fling ciia chinh phi’i ma CIA (Central Intelligence Mli.c dfi ty I) up n:ty van nam con la en' quan tain ci’ia cé c rig Agency), ty l3e up cf›ng so voi trcing tain kiem seat (duéi dong, ThJt v3ay, Zimbabwe - quf›c GDP ném 2009 la 52,30 'o va Vi§t 50&/GDP) nhimg no qué cao so gia cé ty Ie tain phét khi’iiig khie‘ p Nam hi(n dang xép thii 44 trorig v6i mite pho bien ii cac nen kinh cling chinh la nu6c c6 ty lq rig 129 quoc gia vé np cling (bfing /). Ie dang phat trien (tit 30-40 r' ) va v6i thijc m. ng nq c6ng ciia mii.t so i nhu Trung 2010 lii 580,91 USD. Neu so s$nh véii 713,6 USD (Truug Quite), 743 nliién, item so mite nq cGtig binh qiiilii dau ngufii ciia Vi§t Nam vao nlim 2001 xap xi “ Oa hgc Ng6n h8ng Tp, HB Chi Min 0.94K M Np chf nh ehi3 b6o I8nh • Np chlnh phC o Np chlnh quyén dja ph irong con so nay s‹: tiep t9c gia tdng trong nhiing nlim tit. Ve ctf can up' cilng Tru:ci'c he‘t vé hinh th½c vay no’.- qnyen dia phunng la 0,89c. Con tuong tq cua nam 2010 lan lupt la 56,6W, 44,39o, 11,369s va 0,949r [biéu dci 1). Vi(et Nam 2009, nq cfirig bao gom vii net Chinh phu, np dupc Chinh phii Viét Nam, nq niiéc ngoai co vat bao lfinh va net chinh quyen dia tri› quan trpng va chiem ty tr9ng phunng. Vcri cach tinh nay, ncr cao nhat. Nam 2010, trong 56,69• Chinh phu chiem ty trpng lcrn GDP ncr cong da co 42, 29o GDP nam 2009 trong tong my “ii ciia Cu the, ty l(e n‹ cong lic:t Nam ID 52,69o/GDP, up Vi(et dfi up cong khac vcii nq nu rc te thuéng sir dijng chi so up nu6c ngoai dé hinh dung guy mo vé mite d nghiém tr9ng cfia rip cfing cfia quoc gia. Nguon cung cap np nu6c ngoai chu yéu cua Vi(t Nam la céc khoan vay ODA. Theo danh mpc rip cong narn 2009 cua BQ Tai chinh (BTC), 60,39o rig cong l3 ODA va 29,8'7o duo.c Hi trq tir trai phieu trong nu c" ). Céc dieu khoari iru dai cua ODA da giup Viét Nam giam bet dupc ép lijc no cfing; tuy iihién, ty trotig up nu6c ngoai cao tang nguy cc rui ro ve ccr cau no trong tuong lai. Kinh right in tit: cdc cu)c khung hodng nq trong lich sit: cho thay, khi Chtnh phii init di ttnh chit d)ng khi “i ci:ic bié“n gii:i hot dci:ii vga t6m I j cila nhci din to qulc té. Khiing hoang up Argentina (2001) va sq bat on cua Hy Lqp hi3en nay la minh chiing dién hinh cho iéc dong tiéu cue ciia nguon np cong tir nu6c ngoai. Timing hpp ngupc lai la Nhat, rigofii, nhuiig hi(en nay ct Chinh phu la 41,9 o' , rip Chinh Nam, thong tin chi tiet vé np cong phu bao lanh la 9,89•, nc chinh chua day dii; do v3ay, cac nha kinh m a( c du co mite n tren GDP np can nhimg Nhat Ban van Tyc danh gié la bén vfmg do up cong chit yeu dupe tai tr9 BlZu dd 2. Nq node ngo8l ao vdl t8ng rig cling Vi(t Nam 2006 - 2010 (D‹m v] ti"nh.- & GDP) NguoG.’ WB h9p " i ke hogch phat trien kinh te - xa h i, ke hogch thu, chi NSNN trong timg giai dogn, thé’i ky, can xéc djnli ro mqc dich vay (vay nq 6é tai trp thfim h9t ngfin sach, téi ccr can rig va cho vay lqi hogc vay de tiii trq eho céc chuong trinh, dq én dim tw quan trpng, hi9u qua, vay nh8m d$m bao an ninh tar chinh quoc giit), mirc huy d rig von ng3n hari, trung han va diti han theo timg dot tupng vay trong gay them ap lqc rig cho Chinh ty gié USD/VND lu6n phft. Trong 25,097 ty USD tong hu6ng JPY dang -len gig n‹i nude ngofii cfia Chinh phfi, co so v6i 19,313 ty USD céi liii suat th 1 -Nhir vyy, riiJc dii mite nq cling suat tit 3 - 5.99&• (tilng 176 trie) uduo,c diinh gié lii an toén nhung cc USD so véii 2009) vil co t‹ 1.888 in rig c‹›rig dang 8n chila nhieu ty USD mire liii suat 6- l09«, rui ro; do v§y, trong tinh trgng d0i so v6i 2009. tain phét tohn cau dang gia tiing, Ngoai ra, c:ic khoén vay vé'i Hi nguy ccr bring no chien tranh tiln suft tha nfii cling tfing 6,66 trieu t(e trén thfi giéi thi qu3n lJ nq coiig USD an véi 2009. Theo C9c Quan hi(eu qua la van dé dling quan tfim hang dau tgi Vi(t Nam hi(n nay. sufit trung binh up nu6c ngoai cua Chieh phd da tdng tir l ,549b/tiiim vao nam 20Ob l‹:n 1,9&/ndm trong ginh nJng ugly cang gia tiing cua CN VI flAM HI RAY gi6i. Tuy vay, np bao nhiéu Ja gn . Chldfl IUQ'C Yé vay rig ct:ing C³c khoan vay; hi u qua diy kien; tibh trang tieu vay khfing di×?c sit d9ng nong th6i gian dai ho)c chua thijc siy céi nhu c$u sir' dijng. Th:ing thuéng, ngoéi dupc c$c nu6c dang phét trien d3u tir vao céc diy an cc st hq tang dé tqo dé cho tling truéng nhutig can tinh toiin, cfin dcii gifra chinh cac d;y lin cp scr h:y tang. Neu diiug rig cfing dé phat trien to diim béo tinh ben vfmg vé quy Ben lii em em tien vay -. Nq V§n be man chot dot v6i céc nu6c cling cfing nhw kha ning thanh nu6c ngoai cila Vie)t Nam kha da dang phat trim, trong do co Vi(et toén trong nhiéu tinh huong khac ding ve cci cm ti"en vay. Tr“en ly Nam, lfi phai vay mupo, nhat la nhau va hgn che i ro. chi thuyet, dieu nay du9'c cho lii co vay von nu6c ngo:ii du6i nhifiu Muon v y, can thiet lgp nguiing thh luyn chc rui ro ve ty gilt, gram hinh tbuc dE tgo nguon von cho an toan up cling phii h9p véii tinh ép lpc lfin nghla vu tra up ntr6c tiing truong va phai sir dung hi(u hinh kinh te. ciia Vi(et Nam; ngoai cfia Cbinh phfi. Tuy nhién, qua nguon vpn vay, Do do, Chinh thufing xuyen ‹tiinh gia céc riii ro trf:n thiyc te cc chu nay cling ti‹:in phil erm co bi(n phép de tinh toén phat sinh tfr clic khoén vay aq co bién dpng kifim seat mite up phfi hvp v‹ii Chinh phi’i trong moi lién h( véii $n nhfmg so$t tfit ‹i»a GDP, thu NSNN, tcing kim nggch Ty trpng cao ciia c:ie khofin vay trinh sit dpng nguon von vay, gnat khau, clin c8n tbuong mai, dij bting USD (22,959s) va JPY b$ng each xfiy dpng chie‘’nn lupc va gia tang kho® chi gf:ie va liii khi kha thi vd quén ly np cling. tfun din huy dong von trong nué'c, .ich n up ciia khu vijc dpanh thay vi chit tr9ng vao chc khoan nghi(p trong tuotig lai, khi doanh nEo4i tI Thu ‹lu9c tit doi tae cho nghiép ga)p. k1›fi kh8n loJc mat VaO Viitl v8y HIC flQoili, doiig st cang can htm niia khi Chinh va)y, th’ci’ig n:ing can hi§u qua si’r dijng phil vay bao lanh ngufin ngoiii. M§c khf›ng dija In:n nhfmg phan tich vée mfrc d rui to ciing can can thanh toan, nhung rig nhir ning lpc tra rig ciia doanh uuoc ngoéi mang lgi nhieu i ro. nghi(p. Do do, quyet dJuh vay ve vay lgi va bao lanh vay ciia dint Chinh phii cm dupe kiém so:it ch t che‘ va th9c hi(en het.site th)n cac dq an l6n v6i muc dich dfiu c‹ tir sér ha tang. Trénh tlnh trgng 1Eng phi v6n d$u tu, timg buiic nhu 'n von do Chirih phu vay nq ho$c ban lanh cho vay m6i dii9c sit dpng mQt céch céi hi(u qué, dam béo kha nling tra nq Stir Id, ciiiig khoi vti mirth figcft thing tin rrong gu‹iii IQ iip céng Nq cong la ncr qiioc gia; do v0y, Chinh phii bgch quy trgng, chi ni:n uu tie‘ n cho cac Thting tin chinh xéc giiip iihé chunng tririh, diy lin trpng diém hoach di.nh chinh bBch cé thé dtia linh ra nhfmg chinh sach quan l diing viyc uu tién can cua quoc gia va ddti, phii hQp véi ecu kinb te. Bén tinh ben vfmg cfia nq cong, Chinh phi'i phai tiing cu6ng kiém soét va d n vén vay, vdn du9c Chinh phu bao lanh cac dq én co mdc d kha thi v:i ciynh do, cling khai va minh bqch va cac khoiin v6n Chinh phi’i vay tinh hi(u quacao; khfing vay ngan hoanhfim téng cu6ng tréch nhi(rn vC cho doanh ngbi(p vay lgi. hiin dé ddu tu dai hgn; vay thui:itig trong qu$n 1y, sit dpng cite khoéu Cbinh phu la nguol vay up mgi nude ngoai chi in dqng cho up cdng vé trach nhi)em giéi trinh diy an co kha cfia cac cc quan qu3n IQ rig cdng. tr9x: ti p va bao Hoc nfra. not cho cling, rig cling dung cuoi cung cite kho$n vfin ndng thu hot von hu6iig iigfin séch, dcianh nghi(p, Song song v‹ii vi(c do, can phiii ca nhiin; oong mgi touting hpp, kiém tra, giém s$t chgt ché, NSNN phai ginh chju h?au qii•, thudng xuyen qua trinh an dutig phiii tra thfing qua d6ng thue cbo nhii nuiic; do dé, Chinh phi’i can tioh tofin va cling be chinh xac ri’ii ro trong toén bo qu8 tiinh vay cfc Jcho$u vay nq, c£c khoin vay cho nh$ndfin - nhfing nguéii aé tip. Céc khoan vay va béo liinh duqc Chinh phfi bin lanh, iihllt la rig tré - dupe bict. M§t khac, déi v6i niy thqc chJt la nghia ve ngan tgi céc don vj si'i dpng opc tiép sit dung rip cong, cling can phéi 8BCh diy phi›ng, lam nay sinh nguy von vay nhu: t8p dean kinh te, minh bgch hoa, co cc chit chJt ché cc NSNN phfii trang trai cac T4p cti 8g6« hang s4lltJiéng6/20ll tdng cfing ty nha nué'c, NHTM, vii cq the nguiii ddn va xa 6 i 2005 2006 2007 200B ■ Cdn CSn v9ng lal 2QZ9 2010 2011 2012 a Cm c8n v6n giém sét dupe cac cfing trinh dung von ODA, dieu nay cling giup cho nguon von ODA noi chung va von vay tir rig cong noi riéng, fiupc sir dung hpp ly va hi(u qua nhat. frii vuc kiem tra tai chinh nha nude toan my cong ciia cc quan nay do Qufic hoi thanh 1a(p, thqc hi(en trong Lu a(t Quan 1y rip cong va kiém tra vi c quan 1y, KTNN. ngan séch, tien va tai san nha Tuy nhién, tren thiyc te do no nuéic. Vi v a( y, KTNN kiem tra cong gfim nhieu loai hinh khac va sir d9ng cac khoan nhau, moi loai nc 1a;i co da)c thu dieu can thiét. dbao vé quan 1y dong their lién quan ft( thing I:rem tra, gii:inn st:it tai tinh minh bach trong quan ly va den nhieu cci quan quan ly, doi rfifnli sir d9ng céc khoan n‹y cong cfing tupng sir dung; do v a'y, de kiern Kiem toan Nha nu6c (KTNN) nhu tinh bén virng cii a NSNN. toan ii‹ cong co hi(eu quit, hang la cc quan chuyén mon ve linh Can quy dinh ro nhi(em vu kiém nam KTNN phai kié m toan céc 2007 B§LI Chi NS/GDP rig bi mat uy tin. mot 1:hoiin vay trung hanh da han cé (he khoanngnginhan N‹rnganhan in cua khung hoang n‹y Chinh phii nén xem xé t thanh tien chunng t ri nh c‹i c:iu lii chi 1a(p inot try han riéng dé kiéin tra NSNN theo hitting: uu tién ‹lép ring gi ii m sat iloc I (a p n cr c‹ing cii a tilt chi ihu6ng xuyén yan vcri e:ii V i( I Na iii . H i( n tiny cong vi c c;ich h‹inh chinh, iinh giiin b m;iy nity do Bo Tai chinh Ua in nhi( in va cat giam th6 tuc: chi dim tir phat nh img ch ira co nioi cc quan ttien hu6ng van thfic day chuyén chuyen tra c h nén viéc q u an ly iljch cc cau kinh Ie; d héo clii ma con nhié u bat c(ap, charn tre, g y n‹r ‹lay du, trong ké hoa; ch co thé 66 nén nhfrng that thoat, thieu hi u tri tra nq trinic hu; n. Thijc hie)n tune qua trong vi(ec sir dung k iém sniff tiéu cat pidlTl thdfll hut NSNN thiog rig cfing. gun gram ty l‹: chi NSNN so véii Ndm ID, gii:inn tlnh try rig tham GDP, cat giii cdc cong trinh dau hj i ngén st:tch, thém hj t cii'ft tw khfing lo co théii gran ‹tan tir ‹Hi. Nguon h0 dip tham hut can thi song sortg v¿ri viéc giam chi tiéu, khoan vfi ny lai c‹i thé' cltnrc hié‘u ngu‹in thu kh‹iny he’n viiriy tfr ‹luti la niijt khti;in vay nir6c ngoai ciia rim) va thue nha)p khau nhw hi(h nay. ng irfii tiéu dli rig. doanh nghi(p Car céch chinh séch thud:. dii.c hiet va Chinh phfi V i e(t Nam. D‹i bu fa thue bar dong st. thue thu nh(ap dap tham hut cén can vang lai. ct nhiin vtii tiéu chi quén tri(t khong Chinh phfi lai phai vay rio' thém dé xay ra linh trang mon thue, that qu a céc k‹:nh huy dong von trong thu thue. Tuy nhién, ‘e thue thi ncchiphuhhhkhohch Ch h ph s a oh . n u n n y Trkhnguvchyrbhgthn u c gi ch b v n ,d r h , q a ng nh ph ng a i Koi pa i c‹ u h › hu once b n d h n. va ngoéi notr rao ehai]upgnguénnhn Jur.céi hqt h$ qua la (hi$nmdrsong nhindfi, 6aymgnh :ro .