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Trang chủ Tối ưu hóa năng suất điện mặt trời bằng các mô hình trí tuệ nhân tạo đơn và kết ...

Tài liệu Tối ưu hóa năng suất điện mặt trời bằng các mô hình trí tuệ nhân tạo đơn và kết hợp

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In the context of this development, students have conducted surveys and researched the factors affecting the efficiency or productivity of a solar power project. By studying previous studies, papers and surveying the experts, the study identified 16 factors that directly affect the productivity of a solar power plant construction project in Vietnam, such as: The responsiveness of the local power grid, the intensity of light and the intensity of solar radiation emitted, the elevation of the construction terrain,« etc. These factors will be an important reference base for Investors evaluate the initial potential when intending to invest in a solar power project. Beside of finding out 16 factors affecting the productivity of solar power systems, the study also optimizes the predictive performance of solar power systems by using Clementine software (or also known as IBM SPSS Modeler) applies six single artificial intelligence models including: linear regression (LR), generalized linear regression (GENLIN), artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), Classification and regression trees (CART) and Chi ± Squared automatic interaction detection (CHAID) to conduct the analysis to exploit the data collected from the Global Solar Atlas website . Six models were used independently to mine the collected data, by performing crossvalidation using the k-fold model. Six single models with 10 data files are evaluated through the SI performance factor from which students continue to create four combinated models that combine the best performing single models to optimize results predicting the yield of a solar power construction project. The results show that for the single model group, the two models with the best predictive results are SVM and ANN, and the two models with the worst results are GENLIN and CHAID. The combined model MH2 is combined from the SVM and ANN models, giving the optimal results that are superior to the previous single models. 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ÈSGөQJNLӇPFKӭQJFKpR ......................................................................................... 27 3+ѬѪ1*3+È31*+,Ç1&Ӭ8 .............................................................. 28 48<75Î1+1*+,Ç1&Ӭ8.................................................................................28 7+87+Ұ3'Ӳ/,ӊ8 ............................................................................................31 3.2.1. 7KXWKұSFiFQKkQWӕҧQKKѭӣQJÿӃQQăQJVXҩWҧQKKѭӣQJÿӃQQăQJVXҩWKӋWKӕQJÿLӋQ PһWWUӡL ................................................................................................................................ 31 3.2.2. 7KLӃWNӃEҧQJFkXKӓL ................................................................................................. 33 3.2.3. .KҧRViWYjWKXWKұSGӳOLӋX ...................................................................................... 36 7+$1*Ĉ29¬.,ӆ0Ĉӎ1+7+$1*Ĉ2 ........................................................37 3.3.1. 3KkQWtFKÿӝWLQFұ\&URQEDFK V$OSKD ....................................................................... 37 3.3.2. 3KkQWtFKQKkQWӕNKiPSKi()$ ............................................................................... 38 *,Ӟ,7+,ӊ8&Ð1*&Ө1*+,Ç1&Ӭ8 ..............................................................40 3.4.1. 3KҫQPӅPSKkQ WtFKWKӕQJkê IBM SPSS .................................................................. 40 3.4.2. 3KҫQPӅP NKDLWKiFGӳOLӋX,%063660RGHOHU± Clementine. ............................... 40 3+Æ17Ë&+'Ӳ/,ӊ8 ............................................................................. 42 3+Æ17Ë&+ĈҺ&Ĉ,ӆ0'Ӳ/,ӊ81*+,Ç1&Ӭ8 ..........................................42 ĈҺ&Ĉ,ӆ00Ү81*+,Ç1&Ӭ8 ........................................................................42 4.2.1. &KX\rQQJjQKOjPYLӋFFӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJWKDPJLDNKҧRViW ......................................... 42 4.2.2. 6ӕQăPNLQKQJKLӋPWURQJOƭQKYӵFOjPYLӋF ............................................................. 43 4.2.3. 9ӏWUtOjPYLӋFFӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJWKDPJLDNKҧRViW ........................................................ 44 4.2.4. 7KӡLJLDQOjPYLӋFWURQJOƭQKYӵFQăQJOѭӧQJWiLWҥR ................................................ 45 HVTH:rLêr+ҧLrĈăQJ Trangrrvi /XұQrYăQrWӕWrQJKLӋSrWKҥFVƭ GVHD: TS. 1JX\ӉQĈăQJ7UuQK - 3*6767UҫQĈӭF+ӑF .,ӆ0Ĉӎ1+&521%$&+¶6$/3+$ ..................................................................46 4.3.1. Nhóm I - Các QKkQWӕOLrQTXDQÿӃQTX\KRҥFKYj[k\GӵQJ..................................... 47 4.3.2. Nhóm II ± Các QKkQWӕOLrQTXDQÿӃQWKӡLWLӃWYjYӏWUtÿӏDOê .................................... 48 4.3.3. Nhóm III ± Các QKkQWӕOLrQTXDQÿӃQNӻWKXұWFӫDKӋWKӕQJÿLӋQPһWWUӡL .............. 49 4.3.4. Nhóm IV - CiFQKkQWӕOLrQTXDQÿӃQFKҩWOѭӧQJFӫDKӋWKӕQJÿLӋQPһWWUӡL ........... 49 4.3.5. Nhóm V - CiFQKkQWӕOLrQTXDQÿӃQYұQKjQKKӋWKӕQJÿLӋQPһWWUӡL ..................... 50 3+Æ17Ë&+1+Æ17Ӕ.+È03+È()$ .........................................................51 ;ӂ3+Ҥ1*0Ӭ&ĈӜҦ1++ѬӢ1*&È&1+Æ17Ӕ ......................................55 0Ð+Î1+1*+,Ç1&Ӭ89¬.ӂ748Ҧ7Ӕ,Ѭ8 ............................... 58 ;Æ<'Ӵ1*0Ð+Î1+1*+,Ç1&Ӭ8 ..............................................................58 5.1.1. ;k\GӵQJP{KuQKQJKLrQFӭX ................................................................................... 58 5.1.2. 'ӳOLӋXQJKLrQFӭu ..................................................................................................... 59 5.1.3. 3KѭѫQJSKiSÿiQKJLiKLӋXVXҩWP{KuQK KXҩQOX\ӋQ ................................................ 61 7+Ӵ&+,ӊ10Ð+Î1+ ........................................................................................62 5.2.1. PhâQFKLDFKLDGӳOLӋXWKjQK± fold ....................................................................... 62 5.2.2. .KDLEiRFiFWK{QJVӕFKRFiFmô hình. .................................................................... 64 5.2.3. ;k\GӵQJP{KuQKWURQJ&OHPHQWLQH ......................................................................... 67 .ӂ748Ҧ7Ӕ,Ѭ80Ð+Î1+ĈѪ1 ...................................................................68 5.3.1. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiIROG .............................................................................................. 68 5.3.2. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiIROG .............................................................................................. 68 5.3.3. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiIROG .............................................................................................. 68 5.3.4. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiIROG .............................................................................................. 69 5.3.5. .ӃWXҧÿiQKJLiIROG................................................................................................. 69 5.3.6. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiIROG .............................................................................................. 70 5.3.7. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiIROG .............................................................................................. 70 5.3.8. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiIROG .............................................................................................. 70 5.3.9. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiIROG .............................................................................................. 71 5.3.10. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiIROG........................................................................................... 71 5.3.11. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiWәQJKӧS ....................................................................................... 71 5.3.12. .ӃWTXҧWәQJKӧSKӋVӕÿiQKJLiPӭFÿӝTXDQWUӑQJFӫDELӃQ 9DULDEOH,PSRUWDQFH .............................................................................................................................................. 72 .ӂ748ҦĈÈ1+*,È0Ð+Î1+.ӂ7+Ӧ3 ......................................................75 5.4.1. ;k\GӵQJP{KuQKNӃWKӧS ........................................................................................ 75 5.4.2. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃWKӧSWұSKXҩQOX\ӋQVӕ ............................................. 76 HVTH:rLêr+ҧLrĈăQJ Trangrrvii /XұQrYăQrWӕWrQJKLӋSrWKҥFVƭ GVHD: TS. 1JX\ӉQĈăQJ7UuQK - 3*6767UҫQĈӭF+ӑF 5.4.3. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃWKӧSWұSKXҩQOX\ӋQVӕ2 ............................................. 77 5.4.4. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃWKӧSWұSKXҩQOX\ӋQVӕ3 ............................................. 77 5.4.5. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃWKӧSWұSKXҩQOX\ӋQVӕ4 ............................................. 77 5.4.6. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃWKӧSWұSKXҩQOX\ӋQVӕ5 ............................................. 78 5.4.7. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃWKӧS WұSKXҩQOX\ӋQVӕ6 ............................................. 78 5.4.8. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃWKӧSWұSKXҩQOX\ӋQVӕ7 ............................................. 78 5.4.9. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃWKӧSWұSKXҩQOX\ӋQVӕ8 ............................................. 78 5.4.10. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃWKӧSWұSKXҩQOX\ӋQVӕ9 ........................................... 79 5.4.11. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃWKӧSWұSKXҩQOX\ӋQVӕ0 ......................................... 79 5.4.12. .ӃWTXҧÿiQKJLiWәQJKӧSFiFFKӍVӕFӫDP{KuQKNӃWKӧS. .................................... 79 626È1+.ӂ748Ҧ*,Ӳ$0Ð+Î1+ĈѪ19¬0Ð+Î1+.ӂ7+Ӧ3 .........80 .ӂ7/8Ұ1 ................................................................................................ 84 .ӂ7/8Ұ1 .............................................................................................................84 .,ӂ11*+ӎ+ѬӞ1*1*+,Ç1&Ӭ87ѬѪ1*/$, ...........................................85 '$1+0Ө&&Ð1*75Î1+Ĉ­&Ð1*%Ӕ.................................................................. 86 7¬,/,ӊ87+$0.+Ҧ2 ................................................................................................. 87 3+Ө/Ө&........................................................................................................................... 91 3+Ө/Ө&- %Ҧ1*&Æ8+Ӓ,.+Ҧ26È7&È&1+Æ17ӔҦ1++ѬӢ1* ........91 3+Ө/Ө&± .ӂ748Ҧ.,ӆ0Ĉӎ1+&521%$&+¶6$/3+$ ..............................98 3+Ө/Ө&- .ӂ748Ҧ3+Æ17Ë&+()$ ..............................................................103 3+Ө/Ө&± %Ӝ'Ӳ/,ӊ86Ӱ'Ө1*&+21*+,Ç1&Ӭ8*,$,Ĉ2Ҥ1 .......113 3+Ө/Ө&- .ӂ748Ҧ7Ӕ,Ѭ8'ӴĈ2È11Ă1*68Ҩ7+ӊ7+Ӕ1*Ĉ,ӊ11Ă1* /ѬӦ1*0Һ775Ӡ,7Ӯ&È&0Ð+Î1+ .................................................................122 '$1+6È&+&È&&+8<Ç1*,$7+$0*,$.+Ҧ26È7 ..................................... 172 /é/ӎ&+75Ë&+1*$1* ............................................................................................. 173 HVTH:rLêr+ҧLrĈăQJ Trangrrviii /XұQrYăQrWӕWrQJKLӋSrWKҥFVƭ GVHD: TS. 1JX\ӉQĈăQJ7UuQK - 3*6767UҫQĈӭF+ӑF '$1+0Ө&+Î1+Ҧ1+ Hunh 1.1. Công suҩt lҳSÿһWQăQJOѭӧng mһt trӡi khu vӵc ASEAN tӯ 2010 - 2019[2] .......2 Hunh 2.1. BiӇXÿӗ sӵ phát triӇQQăQJOѭӧng khu vӵF$6($1JLDLÿRҥn 2005 ± 2040[2] ...6 Hunh 2.2. BҧQJÿӗ công suҩWÿLӋn mһt trӡi tҥi mӝt sӕ tӍnh thành.[4]...................................7 Hunh 2.3. Ӭng dөng cӫD$,WURQJQăQJOѭӧng tái tҥo ........................................................10 Hunh 2.4. Mô hình hóa quy trình cӫa trí tuӋ nhân tҥo ........................................................15 Hunh 2.5. Mô hình phân loҥi các thuұt toán Machine learning..........................................17 Hunh 2.6. Mô hình thuұt toán ANN ...................................................................................19 Hunh 2.7. Mô hình thuұt toán SVM ...................................................................................21 HuQK0{KuQKSKѭѫQJSKiSNLӇm chӭng chéo ...........................................................27 Hunh 3.1. 6ѫÿӗ khӕi quy trình nghiên cӭXJLDLÿRҥn 1. ....................................................29 Hunh 3.2. 6ѫÿӗ khӕi quy trình nghiên cӭXJLDLÿRҥn 2. ....................................................30 Hunh 4.1. BiӇXÿӗ thӇ hiӋQFѫFҩu chuyên ngành cӫDÿӕLWѭӧng tham gia khҧo sát. ........43 Hunh 4.2. BiӇXÿӗ thӇ hiӋQFѫFҩu sӕ QăPÿӕLWѭӧng tham gia khҧo sát. ........................44 Hunh 4.3. BiӇXÿӗ thӇ hiӋQFѫFҩu vӏ trí làm viӋc cӫDÿӕLWѭӧng tham gia khҧo sát. .........45 Hunh 4.4.. BiӇXÿӗ thӇ hiӋQFѫFҩu thӡi gian làm viӋFWURQJOƭQKYӵFQăQJOѭӧng tái tҥo cӫa ÿӕLWѭӧng tham gia khҧo sát. ..............................................................................................46 Hunh 5.1. /ѭXÿӗ mô hình nghiên cӭu. ..............................................................................58 Hunh 5.2. 6ѫÿӗ phân chia dӳ liӋu thành 10 ± fold ............................................................62 Hunh 5.3. Nhұp tұp dӳ liӋu sӕ 1 vào mô hình Clementine khai báo các thông sӕ ............63 Hunh 5.4. Gán dӳ liӋu huҩn luyӋn vào mô hình Clementine ............................................64 Hunh 5.5. Ví dө khai báo cho mô hình SVM ....................................................................67 Hunh 5.6. Mô hình huҩn luyӋQÿѫQWURQJ&OHPHQWLQH ......................................................67 Hunh 5.7. BiӇXÿӗ thӇ hiӋn chӍ sӕ ÿiQKJLiPӭFÿӝ quan trӑng cӫa biӃn mô hình SVM .72 Hunh 5.8. BiӇXÿӗ thӇ hiӋn chӍ sӕ ÿiQKJLiPӭFÿӝ quan trӑng cӫa biӃn mô hình ANN .73 Hunh 5.9. BiӇXÿӗ thӇ hiӋn chӍ sӕ ÿiQKJLiPӭFÿӝ quan trӑng cӫa biӃn mô hình GENLIN ............................................................................................................................................73 Hunh 5.10. BiӇu ÿӗ thӇ hiӋn chӍ sӕ ÿiQKJLiPӭFÿӝ quan trӑng cӫa biӃn mô hình LR ...74 Hunh 5.11. BiӇXÿӗ thӇ hiӋn chӍ sӕ ÿiQKJLiPӭFÿӝ quan trӑng cӫa biӃn mô hình CART ............................................................................................................................................75 Hunh 5.12. BiӇXÿӗ thӇ hiӋn chӍ sӕ ÿiQKJLiPӭFÿӝ quan trӑng cӫa biӃn mô hình CHAID ............................................................................................................................................75 HVTH:rLêr+ҧLrĈăQJ Trangrrix /XұQrYăQrWӕWrQJKLӋSrWKҥFVƭ GVHD: TS. 1JX\ӉQĈăQJ7UuQK - 3*6767UҫQĈӭF+ӑF Hunh 5.13. Mô hình huҩn luyӋn kӃt hӧp trong Clementine ...............................................76 Hunh 5.14. BiӇXÿӗ thӇ hiӋn hӋ sӕ hiӋu suҩt tәng hӧp SI cӫa các mô hình .......................81 Hunh 5.15. BiӇXÿӗ thӇ hiӋn hӋ sӕ TQTT R cӫa các mô hình ............................................82 Hunh 5.16. BiӇXÿӗ thӇ hiӋn MAPE cӫa các mô hình ........................................................82 Hunh 5.17. BiӇXÿӗ thӇ hiӋn MAE cӫa các mô hình ..........................................................83 Hunh 5.18. BiӇXÿӗ thӇ hiӋn RMSE cӫa các mô hình ........................................................83 HVTH:rLêr+ҧLrĈăQJ Trangrrx /XұQrYăQrWӕWrQJKLӋSrWKҥFVƭ GVHD: TS. 1JX\ӉQĈăQJ7UuQK - 3*6767UҫQĈӭF+ӑF '$1+0Ө&%Ҧ1*%,ӆ8 Bҧng 2.1. Thӕng kê sӕ giӡ nҳQJWURQJQăPWҥi mӝt sӕ vùng trên cҧ Qѭӟc. .........................5 Bҧng 2.2. MөFWLrXQăQJOѭӧng tái tҥo tҫm nhìn 2030 ........................................................8 Bҧng 2.3. Bҧng các nhân tӕ ÿӅ xuҩt ҧQKKѭӣQJÿӃQQăQJVXҩt hӋ thӕQJÿLӋQQăQJOѭӧng mһt trӡi ...............................................................................................................................13 Bҧng 3.1. Bҧng các nhân tӕ ҧQKKѭӣQJÿӃQQăQJVXҩt hӋ thӕQJÿLӋQQăQJOѭӧng mһt trӡi ............................................................................................................................................31 Bҧng 3.2. MӭFÿӝ ҧQKKѭӣng cӫa các nhân tӕ ...................................................................33 Bҧng 3.3. MӭFÿӝ ҧQKKѭӣng cӫa các nhân tӕ ...................................................................34 Bҧng 3.4. Giá trӏ tiêu chuҭn cӫa hӋ sӕ tҧLWѭѫQJӭng vӟLNtFKWKѭӟc mүu ........................39 Bҧng 4.1. Thӕng kê chuyên ngành làm viӋc cӫDQJѭӡi tham gia khҧo sát........................42 Bҧng 4.2. Thӕng kê sӕ QăPNLQKQJKLӋm làm viӋc cӫDQJѭӡi tham gia khҧo sát .............43 Bҧng 4.3. Thӕng kê vӏ trí làm viӋc cӫDQJѭӡi tham gia khҧo sát ......................................44 Bҧng 4.4. Thӕng kê thӡi gian làm viӋc WURQJOƭQKYӵFQăQJOѭӧng tái tҥo cӫa cӫDQJѭӡi tham gia khҧo sát ...............................................................................................................45 Bҧng 4.5. KӃt quҧ kiӇPÿӏQK&URQEDFK¶V$OSKDÿӕi vӟi tӯng nhóm nhân tӕ ...................46 Bҧng 4.6. HӋ sӕ &URQEDFK¶V$OSKDQKyPQKkQWӕ OLrQTXDQÿӃn quy hoҥch và xây dӵng47 Bҧng 4.7. HӋ sӕ &URQEDFK¶V$OSKDQKyPQKkQWӕ OLrQTXDQÿӃn thӡi tiӃt và vӏ WUtÿӏa lý .48 Bҧng 4.8. HӋ sӕ &URQEDFK¶V$OSKDQKyPQKkQWӕ OLrQTXDQÿӃn kӻ thuұt cӫa hӋ thӕQJÿLӋn mһt trӡi ...............................................................................................................................49 Bҧng 4.9. HӋ sӕ &URQEDFK¶V$OSKDQKyPQKkQWӕ OLrQTXDQÿӃn chҩWOѭӧng cӫa hӋ thӕng ÿLӋn mһt trӡi .......................................................................................................................50 Bҧng 4.10. HӋ sӕ &URQEDFK¶V$OSKDQKyPQKkQWӕ OLrQTXDQÿӃn vұn hành hӋ thӕQJÿLӋn mһt trӡi ...............................................................................................................................51 Bҧng 4.11. KӃt quҧ kiӇPÿӏQK.02Yj%DUWOHWW¶V ............................................................52 Bҧng 4.12. KӃt quҧ phân tích nhân tӕ ...............................................................................52 Bҧng 4.13. Bҧng xӃp hҥng mӭFÿӝ ҧQKKѭӣng cӫa các nhân tӕ ÿӃQQăQJVXҩt cӫa hӋ thӕng ÿLӋQQăQJOѭӧng mһt trӡi. ...................................................................................................55 Bҧng 5.1. Bҧng xӃp hҥng các nhân tӕ ҧQKKѭӣng nhiӅu nhҩWÿӃQQăQJVXҩt hӋ thӕQJÿLӋn QăQJOѭӧng mһt trӡi ............................................................................................................59 Bҧng 5.2. Các nhân tӕ ÿѭӧc chӑn phөc vө thu thұp dӳ liӋXJLDLÿRҥn 2 ...........................60 Bҧng 5.3. Bҧng các thông sӕ khai báo mô hình .................................................................64 HVTH:rLêr+ҧLrĈăQJ Trangrrxi /XұQrYăQrWӕWrQJKLӋSrWKҥFVƭ GVHD: TS. 1JX\ӉQĈăQJ7UuQK - 3*6767UҫQĈӭF+ӑF Bҧng 5.4. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQK ÿѫQ cho fold 1 ....................................68 Bҧng 5.5. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQK ÿѫQ cho fold 1 ....................................68 Bҧng 5.6. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQK ÿѫQ cho fold 1 ....................................68 Bҧng 5.7. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQK ÿѫQ cho fold 1 ....................................69 Bҧng 5.8. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQK ÿѫQ cho fold 1 ....................................69 Bҧng 5.9. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQKÿѫQ cho fold 1 ....................................70 Bҧng 5.10. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQK ÿѫQ cho fold 1 ..................................70 Bҧng 5.11. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQKÿѫQ cho fold 1 ..................................70 Bҧng 5.12. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQKÿѫQ cho fold 1 ..................................71 Bҧng 5.13. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQK ÿѫQ cho fold 1 ..................................71 Bҧng 5.14. KӃt quҧ tәng hӧp các chӍ sӕ ÿiQKJLiÿӕi vӟLP{KuQKÿѫQ ............................71 Bҧng 5.15. Mô hình kӃt hӧp ..............................................................................................75 Bҧng 5.16. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃt hӧp cho fold 1 ............................76 Bҧng 5.17. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃt hӧp cho fold 2 ............................77 Bҧng 5.18. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃt hӧp cho fold 3 ............................77 Bҧng 5.19. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃt hӧp cho fold 4 ............................77 Bҧng 5.20. KӃt quҧ các thông sӕ ÿiQKJLiP{KuQKNӃt hӧp cho fold 5 ............................78 Bҧng 5.21. 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