Tài liệu Phân tích đánh giá rủi ro trong quá trình lập và quyết định đầu tư dự án xây dựng

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TS. 1JX\ӉQ+RjL1JKƭD ;iFQKұQFӫD&KӫWӏFK+ӝLÿӗQJÿiQKJLi/9Yj7UѭӣQJ.KRDTXҧQOêFKX\rQQJjQK VDXNKLOXұQYăQÿmÿѭӧFVӱDFKӳDQӃXFy &+Ӫ7ӎ&++Ӝ,ĈӖ1* 75ѬӢ1*.+2$.Ӻ7+8Ұ7;Æ<'Ӵ1* 3*6763+Ҥ0+Ӗ1*/8Æ13*676/Ç$1+78Ҩ1 ĈҤ,+Ӑ&48Ӕ&*,$73+&0 &Ӝ1*+Ñ$;­+Ӝ,&+Ӫ1*+Ƭ$9,ӊ71$0 75ѬӠ1*ĈҤ,+Ӑ&%È&+.+2$ ĈӝFOұS±7ӵGR±+ҥQKSK~F NHIӊM VӨ/8Ұ19Ă17+Ҥ&6Ƭ +ӑYjWrQKӑFYLrQ : 0$,&+,ӂ0+2¬1* MSHV: 1870117 1Jj\WKiQJQăPVLQK-05-1982 &KX\rQQJjQK 1ѫLVLQKQUҦNG TRӎ 4XҧQOê[k\GӵQJ0mVӕQJjQK I. 7Ç1Ĉӄ7¬, 3+Æ17Ë&+ĈÈ1+*,È5Ӫ,527521*48È75Î1+/Ұ3 9¬48<ӂ7Ĉӎ1+ĈҪ87Ѭ'ӴÈ1;Æ<'Ӵ1* 1+,ӊ09Ө9¬1Ӝ,'81*/8Ұ19Ă1 Nhiዉm vዙ và nዒi dung cዙ th዇ nhዛ sau: 1. ;iFÿӏQKFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro, mӕLOLrQKӋ QJX\rQQKkQ± hӋ quҧ giӳDFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLURYjkhҧ QăQJ[ҧy ra WURQJTXiWUuQKÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 2. ÈSGөQJP{KuQK%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUN%%1¶6ÿӇ SKkQWtFKYjÿiQKJLiFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro. 3. ĈӅ xuҩt nhӳng biӋQSKiSӭng SKyQKҵm khҳc phөc, hҥn chӃ YjÿiQKJLiKLӋu quҧ WjLFKtQKFKRGӵ iQ 4. ÈSGөQJFKRF{QJWUuQKWKӵc tӃ, cө thӇ OjGӵ iQ&KXQJFѭWҥL%uQK'ѭѫQJ II. 1*¬<*,$21+,ӊ09Ө : 1Jj\21 WKiQJ09 QăP III. 1*¬<+2¬17+¬1+1+,ӊ09Ө : 1Jj\03 WKiQJ01 QăP IV. &È1%Ӝ+ѬӞ1*'Ү1 : TSĈLQK&{QJ7ӏQK : 3*6761JX\ӉQ7KӕQJ 7S+&0QJj\WKiQJ03 QăP1 &È1%Ӝ+ѬӞ1*'Ү1 TSĈLQK&{QJ7ӏQK &+Ӫ1+,ӊ0%Ӝ0Ð1Ĉ¬27Ҥ2 TS. /r+RjL/RQJ &È1%Ӝ+ѬӞ1*'Ү1 3*6761JX\ӉQ7KӕQJ 75ѬӢ1*.+2$.Ӻ7+8Ұ7;Æ<'Ӵ1* PGS.76/r$QK7XҩQ LӠI CҦ0Ѫ1 LuұQYăQWKҥFVƭOjUҩt quan trӑQJÿӇ ÿiQKJLiNӃt quҧ cӫDTXiWUuQKKӑc tұSYj QJKLrQFӭu cӫa hӑFYLrQĈӇ KRjQWKjQKQJRjLVӵ cӕ gҳn cӫa bҧQWKkQOjVӵ JL~Sÿӥ, ÿӝQJYLrQFӫa bҥQEqÿӗng nghiӋSJLDÿuQK, thҫ\F{ trong suӕWTXiWUuQKWKӵc hiӋn. 7Uѭӟc hӃWW{L xin gӣi lӡi cҧPѫQFKkQWKjQKÿӃQ76ĈLQK&{QJ7ӏQKYj3*676 NguyӉn ThӕQJ&iFWKҫy ÿmWұQWuQKKѭӟng dүn, ÿӝQJYLrQ, hӛ trӧ nhiӅXWjLOLӋXJL~S ÿѭDUDSKѭѫQJSKiSQJKLrQFӭXYjWUX\ӅQÿҥt nhiӅu kiӃn thӭFTXtEiXFKRW{LWURQJVXӕt thӡi gian thӵc hiӋQÿӅ WjL Xin gӱi lӡi cҧPѫQÿӃQTXêWKҫ\F{bӝ P{Q4XҧQOê[k\GӵQJÿmWUX\ӅQÿҥt cho W{LQKӳng kiӃn thӭFTXtEiXWURQJVXӕWTXiWUuQKhӑc tұp tҥLWUѭӡng. ;LQFKkQWKjQKFҧPѫQQKӳQJQJѭӡi bҥQÿӗng nghiӋSÿDQJOjPYLӋFWURQJOƭQK vӵF[k\Gӵng, ÿҫXWѭEҩWÿӝng sҧQFiFKӑFYLrQFKX\rQQJjQK4XҧQ/ê;k\ ÿmFKLDVҿ nhӳng kinh nghiӋPTXêEiXKӛ trӧ W{LKRjQWKjQKOXұQYăQWӕt nghiӋp. Xin gӱi lӡi cҧPѫQÿӃQFiFÿӗng nghiӋS7UXQJWkP7K{QJWLQYj'ӏch Vө ;k\ dӵQJWKjQKSKӕ Hӗ &Kt0LQKQKӳQJQJѭӡLÿmWҥRÿLӅu kiӋQYjJL~Sÿӥ rҩt nhiӅu trong suӕWTXiWUuQKWKXWKұp dӳ liӋu thӵc hiӋn luұQYăQ LuұQYăQÿѭӧFKRjQWKjQKQKѭQJNK{QJWKӇ WUiQKÿѭӧc nhӳng thiӃXVyWYjKҥn chӃ. Rҩt mong nhұQÿѭӧc sӵ ÿyQJJySFӫDTXêWKҫ\F{EҥQEqYjÿӗng nghiӋSÿӇ luұn YăQÿѭӧFKRjQWKLӋQYjFyêQJKƭDWKӵc tiӉn. 7KjQKSKӕ Hӗ &Kt0LQKQJj\WKiQJ01 QăP Mai ChiӃP+RjQJ 7Ï07ҲT LUҰ19Ă1 LuұQYăQÿӅ cұSÿӃn viӋF[iFÿӏQKFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro, mӕLOLrQKӋ QJX\rQQKkQ± hӋ quҧ giӳa, khҧ QăQJ[ҧ\UDFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLURWURQJTXiWUuQKWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ%rQFҥnh ÿyGQJSKѭѫQJSKiS P{KuQK%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUN%%1¶6 ÿӇ ÿӏQKOѭӧQJSKkQWtFK ÿiQKJLi6DXÿyÿӅ xuҩt nhӳng biӋQSKiSӭQJSKyQKҵm khҳc phөc, hҥn chӃ FiF\Ӄu tӕ UNJLURFyWKӇ xҧ\UDYjÿiQKJLiKLӋu quҧ WjLFKtQKFKRGӵ iQFKXQJFѭFө thӇ tҥL%uQK 'ѭѫQJ &ѫVӣ dӳ liӋXFKtQKFӫa luұQYăQOjÿiQKJLiUӫLURFKRTXiWUuQKWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ ӣ JLDLÿRҥn bҳWÿҫXYjFKXҭn bӏ thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ6DX NKLÿmFySKѭѫQJiQӭQJSKyUӫi ro WKuWLӃQKjQKWtQKKLӋu quҧ WjLFKtQKFKRGӵ iQÿӇ Chӫ ÿҫXWѭTX\ӃWÿӏQKÿҫXWѭ 1JX{QGӳ liӋu thӵc tӃ ÿӇ ÿiQKJLiUӫLURKD\WtQKKLӋu quҧ WjLFKtQKFKRGӵ iQ ÿѭӧc thu thұp tӯ FiF1KjWKҫX1KjWѭYҩn, Chӫ ÿҫXWѭ&iFtә chӭFWtQGөng tӯ FiFF{QJ WUuQKOkQFkQ[XQJTXDQKWҥL%uQK'ѭѫQJYjFiFWӍQKYQJYHQ73+ӗ &Kt0LQK ABSTRACT Thesis refers to the identification of risk factors, cause-consequence relationship between, the possibility of risk factors occurring during the project implementation. Besides, we use the Bayesian Network model (BBN) to quantify, analyze and evaluate. Then propose coping measures to overcome and limit the possible risk factors and evaluate the financial efficiency for a specific apartment project in Binh Duong. The main database of the thesis is risk assessment for project implementation in the inception and preparation of project implementation. After having a risk response plan, the financial efficiency of the project will be conducted for the Investor to decide on investment. The actual data source to assess risk or financial efficiency for the project is collected from Contractors, Consultants, Investors, Credit Institutions from neighboring projects in Binh. Duong and the surrounding provinces of the city. Ho Chi Minh. LӠ,&$0Ĉ2$1 7{L[LQFDPÿRDQ/XұQYăQQj\OjF{QJWUuQKQJKLrQFӭu thӵc sӵ cӫDFiQKkQW{L ÿѭӧc thӵc hiӋn dӵDWUrQFѫVӣ QJKLrQFӭXOêWKX\Ӄt, khҧRViWWKӵc tiӉQGѭӟi sӵ Kѭӟng dүn khoa hӑc cӫD76ĈLQK&{QJ7ӏQKYjPGS.TS. NguyӉn Thӕng &iFVӕ liӋXYjNӃt quҧ QJKLrQFӭu trong luұQYăQOjWUXQJWKӵFFiFWjLOLӋu tham khҧRWjLOLӋXWUtFKGүn, sӕ liӋu khҧRViWÿӅXFKtQK[iFYjFyQJXӗn gӕc cө thӇ trong phҥm vi hiӇu biӃt cӫDW{L Mӝt lҫn nӳDW{L[LQNKҷQJÿӏnh vӅ sӵ trung thӵc cӫa lӡLFDPÿRDQWUrQ 7S+&0QJj\«.. WKiQJ01 QăP1 Mai ChiӃP+RjQJ . MӨC LӨC &+ѬѪ1**,ӞI THIӊU 1.1 &ѫVӣ KuQKWKjQKÿӅ WjL 1 7uQKKuQKÿҫXWѭ[k\GӵQJYjWKLWUѭӡng bҩWÿӝng sҧn tҥi ViӋt Nam hiӋn nay 1 1.1.2. QuҧQOêUӫi ro dӵ iQӣ ViӋt Nam 2 1.2 MөFWLrXQJKLrQFӭu 5 1.3 PhҥPYLQJKLrQFӭu 6 4XDQÿLӇPSKkQWtFK 6 1.3.2. PhҥPYLQJKLrQFӭu 6 1.4 ĈyQJJySGӵ kiӃn cӫDQJKLrQFӭu 6 1.4.1 VӅ mһt hӑc thuұt 6 1.4.2 VӅ mһt thӵc tiӉn 6 &+ѬѪ1*7ӘNG QUAN 2.1 &iFNKiLQLӋm 8 2.KiLQLӋm dӵ iQ 8 2.1.2 Dӵ iQFKXQJFѭ 8 &iFNKiLQLӋm vӅ rӫi ro 8 .KiLQLӋm vӅ rӫi ro 8 .Kii niӋm quҧQOêUӫi ro 9 9DLWUzFӫa quҧQOêUӫLURÿӕi vӟi dӵ iQ 10 2.2.4 Nhұn diӋn rӫi ro 12 2.2.5 ChiӃQOѭӧc ӭQJSKyUӫi ro 12 2.2.6 Chҩp nhұn rӫi ro 12 2.2.7 7UiQKQpUӫi ro 12 2.2.8 *LiPViWUӫLURYjFKҭn bӏ FiFNӃ hoҥch dӵ SKzQJ 13 2.2.9 Dӏch chuyӇn rӫi ro 13 2.3 &iFQJKLrQFӭXWUѭӟFÿk\ 14 1JKLrQFӭu vӅ rӫi ro trong ÿҫXWѭGӵ iQ[k\Gӵng 14 1JKLrQFӭu vӅ SKkQWtFKKLӋu quҧ dӵ iQEҩWÿӝng sҧn 18 1JKLrQFӭu vӅ hӧSÿӗQJYjFXQJFҩp dӏch vө 20 1JKLrQFӭu vӅ hӋ thӕng quҧQOêFKҩWOѭӧng 22 1JKLrQFӭu vӅ rӫLURFKLSKtWjLFKtQK 23 1JKLrQFӭu rӫi ro vӇ tiӃQÿӝ 25 &iFQJKLrQFӭu vӅ ÿROѭӡQJÿiQKJLiUӫi ro dӵ iQ[k\Gӵng 27 &+ѬѪ1*3+ѬѪ1*3+È31*+,Ç1&ӬU 4X\WUuQKQJKLrQFӭu 28 &{QJFө QJKLrQFӭu 29 0{KuQK%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUN: 30 .KiLQLӋm vӅ P{KuQK%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUN 30 3KѭѫQJSKiSFӫa Bayesian Belief Networ 31 3.3.3. CҩXWU~FPҥQJ%%1¶V 32 3.3.4. Phҫn mӅPWtQKWRiQFKR%%1V 34 3.4 Mӝt sӕ chӍ WLrXWjLFKtQKGQJSKkQWtFKKLӋu quҧ ÿҫXWѭ 34 3.4.1. ChӍ WLrXKLӋQJLiWKXQKұp thuҫn (NPV). 34 3.4.2. ChӍ WLrXVXҩt sinh lӡi nӝi bӝ (IRR). 32 3.4.3. Tӹ sӕ lӧi nhuұQWUrQYӕn chӫ sӣ hӳu (ROE). 35 3.4.4. ThӡLJLDQKRjQYӕn 36 3.5 Thu Thұp Dӳ LiӋu 37 3.5.1. 4X\WUuQKWKXWKұp dӳ liӋu 37 3.5.2. &iFKWKӭc thu thұp dӳ liӋu 37 3.5.3. &iFWKӭFSKkQSKӕi bҧQJFkXKӓi 38 3.5.4. .tFKWKѭӟc mүu 38 3.5.5. KiӇPÿӏQKWKDQJÿR 39 3.5.6. &iFWKӭc duyӋt lҥi dӳ liӋu 40 &+ѬѪ1*0Ð+Î1+%%1¶6Ĉӎ1+/ѬӦNG RӪ,527521*48È75Î1H 3+Æ17Ë&+48<ӂ7Ĉӎ1+ĈҪ87Ѭ 4.1 ;iFÿӏQKFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro trong TXiWUuQKWKӵc hiӋQÿҫXWѭdӵ iQ 41 4.1.1. 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLURSKiSOêGӵ iQ 42 4.1.2. 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃn tiӃQÿӝ 49 4.1.3. 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃn chҩWOѭӧng 51 4.1.4. 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃn thӏ WUѭӡng 53 4.1.5. 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃn FKLSKtWjLFKtQK 55 4.2. ThiӃt lұp khҧRViW VѫEӝ FiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLURNKLÿҫXWѭGӵ iQ 58 4.2.1. TiӃQKjQKNLӇPÿӏQKWKDQJÿRYӟLFiFELӃn: 60 4.2.1.1 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃQSKiSOê 61 4.2.1.2 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃn tiӃQÿӝ 61 4.2.1.3 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃn chҩWOѭӧng 62 4.2.1.4 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃn thӏ WUѭӡng 62 4.2.1.5 1KyPFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLUROLrQTXDQÿӃQFKLSKtWjLFKtQK 63 4.2.2. Trӏ WUXQJEuQKNKҧRViWWKӱ nghiӋm: 64 4.3. KhҧRViWFKtQKWKӭFFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLURNKLÿҫXWѭGӵ iQ 67 4.3.1. KӃt quҧ thӕQJNrP{Wҧ ÿӇ kiӇPWUDYjÿiQKJLiVѫEӝ dӳ liӋu 67 4.3.2. KӃt quҧ kiӇPÿӏQK&URQEDFK¶V$OSKD 72 4.3.3. KӃt quҧ SKkQWtFKWUӏ WUXQJEuQK 75 4.3.4. KiӇPÿӏnh ANOVA 76 4.4. KhҧRViWPӕLOLrQKӋ ³1KkQ± quҧ ³JLӳDFiF\Ӄu tӕ 83 4.4.1. BҧQJFkXKӓi khҧRViW 83 4.4.2. KhҧRViWWKӵc nghiӋm mӕi quan hӋ ³QKkQ± quҧ´ 86 4.4.3. Thu thұSYjSKkQWtFKVӕ liӋu khҧRViWPӕi quan hӋ QKkQTXҧ 91 4.4.3.1. Thu thұp sӕ liӋu 91 4.4.3.2. 3KkQWtFKVӕ liӋu khҧRViWPӕi quan hӋ QKkQTXҧ 91 4.5. ThiӃt lұSP{KuQK%%1¶VÿӏQKOѭӧng rӫLURNKLÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 101 4.5.1. &iF\rXWӕ ҧQKKѭӣQJYjWUҥQJWKiLWѭѫQJӭng 101 4.5.2. 0{KuQKÿӏQKOѭӧng rӫi ro NKLÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ bҵng BBNs: 101 4.6. KiӇm chӭQJP{KuQK 102 4.6.1. Giӟi thiӋXYjLQpWYӅ F{QJWUuQKӭng dөng 102 4.6.2. KiӇm chӭQJWtQKKӧSOêÿӝ tin cұy cӫDP{KuQKӭng dөng 103 ÈSGөQJP{KuQK%%1¶VYjRF{QJWUuQKWKӵc tӃ 103 4.6.2.2 KhҧRViW[iFVXҩWFyÿLӅu kiӋn giӳDFiFELӃn 103 4.6.2.3 KӃt quҧ bҧng khҧRViW[iFVXҩWFyÿLӅu kiӋn 107 4.6.3. Dӳ liӋXÿҫXYjRP{KuQK 113 4.6.4. 7tQKWRiQYjSKkQWtFKNӃt quҧ P{KuQK 119 &+ѬѪ1*Ĉӄ XUҨT HҤN CHӂ RӪ,529¬3+Æ17Ë&++,ӊU QUҦ 7¬, &+Ë1+ĈҪ87Ѭ.+,7+ӴC HIӊN DӴ È1 5.1 Mӝt sӕ ÿӅ xuҩt hҥn chӃ rӫi ro khi thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 122 5.1.1 ӬQJSKyYӟi rӫi ro thӵc hiӋQSKiSOêGӵ iQ 114 5.1.2 ӬQJSKyYӟi rӫi ro vӅ tiӃQÿӝ thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 123 5.1.3 ӬQJSKyYӟi rӫi ro vӅ chҩWOѭӧng thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 124 5.1.4. ӬQJSKyYӟi rӫi ro vӅ FKLSKtWjLFKtQK 125 5.1.5. ӬQJSKyYӟi rӫi ro vӅ thӏ WUѭӡng 126 5.2. LұSYjSKkQWtFKKLӋu quҧ WjLFKtQKÿҫXWѭ 126 &ăQFӭ lұSYjSKkQWtFKÿҫXWѭ 126 5.2.2. KӃ hoҥFKÿҫXWѭ 128 3KkQWtFKÿiQKJLiKLӋu quҧ WjLFKtQK 129 &+ѬѪ1* KӂT LUҰ19¬.,ӂN NGHӎ 135 6.1. KӃt luұn 135 6.2. KiӃn nghӏ 136 T¬,/,ӊU THAM KHҦO 138 PHӨ LӨC PHӨ LӨC 1: BҦ1*&Æ8+ӒI KHҦ26È7 142 Phө lөc 1.1:BҧQJFkXKӓi khҧRViWFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫLURWURQJTXiWUuQKÿҫXWѭthӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 142 Phө lөc 1.2: BҧQJFkXKӓi khҧRViW[iFÿӏnh mӕLOLrQKӋ QKkQTXҧ giӳDFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro vӟi nhau 146 Phө lөc 1.3: BҧQJFkXKӓi khҧRViW[iFÿӏQK[iFVXҩt khҧ QăQJ[ҧy ra, sӵ WiFÿӝng giӳDFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro vӟi nhau tӟLTXiWUuQKWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 151 PHӨ LӨ&&È&BҦ1*3+Æ17Ë&++,ӊU QUҦ 7¬,&+Ë1+ 160 Bҧng Tәng mӭFÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 160 Bҧng KӃ hoҥFKÿҫXWѭWjLFKtQK 162 Bҧng Nguӗn vӕQÿҫXWѭ 163 Bҧng /mL suҩt, thuӃ 163 Bҧng KӃ hoҥch trҧ nӧ vay 164 Bҧng KӃ hoҥFKFKLSKtKRҥWÿӝQJNLQKGRDQKEiQKjQJ 164 Bҧng Tәng kӃ hoҥch doanh thu 165 Bҧng Tәng kӃ hoҥFKFKLSKt 166 Bҧng 'zng tiӅn 166 Bҧng 3KkQWtFKFiFFKӍ WLrXWjLFKtQK 168 Bҧng SuҩWÿҫXWѭ± *LiWKjQKÿҫXWѭ 169 /é/ӎ&+75Ë&+1*$1* 170 DANH MӨC CHӲ VIӂT TҲT - %Ĉ6 : BҩWÿӝng sҧn - GDP : Tәng sҧn phҭm quӕc nӝi - QLDA : QuҧQOêGӵ iQ - $7/Ĉ 9607 : $QWRjQODRÿӝQJYj9Ӌ VLQKP{LWUѭӡng - 70Ĉ7 : Tәng mӭFÿҫXWѭ - PCCC 3KzQJFKi\FKӳDFKi\ - DTM %iRFiRÿiQKJLiWiFÿӝQJP{LWUѭӡng - NPV : Net present value - *tiWUӏ hiӋn tҥi thuҫn - IRR : Internal rate of return - Suҩt sinh lӧi nӝi bӝ - ROE : Return On Equity - Lӧi nhuұQWUrQYӕn chӫ sӣ hӳu - VAT : ThuӃ JLiWUӏ JLDWăJ - TM ± DV 7KѭѫQJPҥi dӏch vө - Thv : ThӡLJLDQKRjQYӕn\ - DTSXD : DiӋQWtFKVjQ[k\Gӵng - DTSKD : DiӋQWtFKVjQNLQKGRDQK DANH MӨ&+Î1+ +uQK4X\WUuQKFѫEҧn quҧQOêUӫi ro 10 +uQK4X\WUuQKQJKLrQFӭu 28 +uQK0ӝt sӕ P{KuQKPLQKKRҥ mҥng BBNs 30 +uQK6ѫÿӗ %%1¶VYӅ mӕi quan hӋ ³1JX\rQQKkQ± hӋ quҧ´ 33 +uQK%LӇXÿӗ SKkQEӕ ÿѫQYӏ F{QJWiF 68 +uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQEӕ QăPNLQKQJLӋm cӫDÿӕLWѭӧng tham gia khҧRViW69 +uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQEӕ vӏ WUtF{QJYLӋc cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW70 +uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQEӕ JLiWUӏ [k\Gӵng cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW71 +uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQOƭQKYӵFGӵiQFyFӫDÿӕLWѭӧng tham gia khҧRViW73 +uQK6ѫÿӗ VѫEӝ mӕi quan hӋ QKkQTXҧ giӳDFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi 90 +uQK%LӇXÿӗ SKkQEӕ ÿѫQYӏ F{QJWiF 92 +uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQEӕ QăPNLQKQJLӋPÿӕLWѭӧng tham gia khҧRViW93 +uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQEӕ vӏ WUtF{QJYLӋc cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW94 +uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQEӕ giiWUӏ [k\Gӵng cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW +uQK%LӇXÿӕ SKkQOƭQKYӵF'ӵiQFӫDÿӕLWѭӧng tham gia khҧRViW96 +uQK6ѫÿӗ mӕi quan hӋ ³QKkQ± quҧ´ÿѭDYjRP{KuQK%%1¶V101 +uQK'ӳ liӋu nhұSYjRSKҫn mӅm MSBNX cho QKyPUӫLURSKiSOê +uQK'ӳ liӋu nhұSYjRSKҫn mӅP06%1;FKRQKyPUӫi ro tiӃQÿӝ 115 +uQK'ӳ liӋu nhұSYjRSKҫn mӅP06%1;QKyPUӫi ro chҩWOѭӧng 116 +uQK'ӳ liӋu nhұSYjRSKҫn mӅP06%1;QKyPUӫi ro thӏ WUѭӡng 118 +uQK'ӳ liӋu nhұSYjRSKҫn mӅP06%1;QKyPUӫLURFKLSKt 117 +uQK'ӳ liӋu nhұSYjRSKҫn mӅm MSBNX vӅ rӫi ro tәng thӇ khi thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 118 +uQK.Ӄt quҧ WtQKWRiQUӫi ro khi thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQÿҫXWѭ 119 +uQK%LӇXÿӗ VRViQKFiFUӫi ro khi thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQÿҫXWѭ 120 +uQK6ѫÿӗ rӫi ro khi thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQÿҫXWѭ 121 DANH MӨC BҦNG Bҧng 2. 1 GiҧLSKiSӭQJSKyUӫi ro 17 BҧQJ1KkQWӕ WiFÿӝQJÿӃQFKLSKtQKjWKҫu 24 BҧQJ&{QJFө QJKLrQFӭu 29 Bҧng 3.2. BҧQJ[iFVXҩt cӫa tiӃQÿӝ 33 Bҧng 4.1. 0mKyDGӳ liӋXFiFELӃn rӫi ro trong phҫn mӅm SPSS 59 Bҧng 4.2. KiӇPÿӏQKWKDQJÿR&URQEDFK¶V$OSKDYӅ rӫLURSKiSOê 61 Bҧng 4.3. KiӇPÿӏQKWKDQJÿR&URQEDFK¶V$OSKDYӅ rӫi ro tiӃQÿӝ 62 Bҧng 4.4: KiӇPÿӏQKWKDQJÿR&URQEDFK¶V$OSKDYӅ rӫi ro chҩWOѭӧng 62 Bҧng 4.5: KiӇPÿӏQKWKDQJÿR&URQEDFK¶V$OSKDYӅ rӫi ro thӏ WUѭӡng 63 Bҧng 4.6: KiӇPÿӏnh thang ÿR&URQEDFK¶V$OSKDYӅ rӫLURFKLSKtWjLFKtQK64 Bҧng 4.7: BҧQJJLiWUӏ WUXQJEuQKFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro 65 BҧQJ&iF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro khi thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQÿѭӧc khҧRViWFKtQKWKӭc 65 Bҧng 4.9 : Bҧng thӕQJNrÿѫQYӏ F{QJWiFFӫDÿӕLWѭӧng khҧRViW 67 Bҧng 4.10: Bҧng thӕQJNrVӕ QăPNLQKQJKLӋm cӫDFiFÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧo ViW 68 Bҧng 4.11: Bҧng thӕQJNrYӏ WUtF{QJYLӋc hiӋn tҥi cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW 70 Bҧng 4.12: Bҧng thӕQJNrWәQJJLiWUӏ [k\Oҳp cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW71 Bҧng 4.13: Bҧng thӕQJNrFQJORҥLF{QJWUuQKÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW73 Bҧng 4.14: Bҧng kӃt quҧ hӋ sӕ &URQEDFK¶V$OSKDFiFQKkQWӕ rӫi ro 73 Bҧng 4.15: KӃt quҧ trӏ WUXQJEuQKFӫa cuӝc khҧRViWFKtQKWhӭFFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro 75 Bҧng 4.16 KӃt quҧ kiӇPÿӏnh Levenve 77 Bҧng 4.17 : KӃt quҧ kiӇPÿӏnh ANOVA 78 Bҧng 4.18: BҧQJPmKyDGӳ liӋXFiFPӕi quan hӋ ³QKkQ± quҧ´ 84 Bҧng 4.18a :Bҧng kӃt quҧ JLiWUӏ WUXQJEuQKÿiQKJLiPӕi quan hӋ ³QKkQ± quҧ´Fӫa khҧRViWWKӱ nghiӋm 86 Bҧng 4.18b. KiӇPÿӏQK&URQEDFK¶V$OSKDWәng thӇ khҧRViWWKӱ nghiӋm 87 Bҧng 4.19 : Bҧng thӕQJNrÿѫQYӏ F{QJWiFFӫDÿӕLWѭӧng khҧRViW 91 Bҧng 4.20: Bҧng thӕQJNrVӕ QăPNLQKQJKLӋm cӫDFiFÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧo ViW 92 Bҧng 4.21: Bҧng thӕQJNrYӏ WUtF{QJYLӋc cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW Bҧng 4.22: Bҧng thӕQJNrWәQJJLiWUӏ [k\Oҳp cӫDÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW Bҧng 4.23: Bҧng thӕQJNrFQJORҥLF{QJWUuQKÿӕLWѭӧQJÿѭӧc khҧRViW Bҧng 4.24: Bҧng kӃt quҧ hӋ sӕ &URQEDFK¶V$OSKDFiFQKkQWӕ rӫi ro 96 Bҧng 4.25 Bҧng kӃt quҧ JLiWUӏ WUXQJEuQKPӕi quan hӋ ³QKkQ- quҧ´98 BҧQJ;iFVXҩt khҧ QăQg xҧy ra cӫDFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro 103 Bҧng 4.27: Bҧng tәng hӧp trҥQJWKiLFiFELӃn 104 BҧQJ0{Wҧ quan hӋ FiF\Ӄu tӕ NK{QJFyQJX\rQQKkQ 106 BҧQJ0{Wҧ quan hӋ FiF\Ӄu tӕ FyPӝt biӃQQJX\rQQKkQ 106 BҧQJ0{tҧ quan hӋ FiF\Ӄu tӕ FyWӯ 2 biӃQQJX\rQQKkQWUӣ OrQ 107 Bҧng 4.31: Bҧng tәng hӧSJLiWUӏ khҧRViW[iFVXҩWFiFELӃn 108 Bҧng 5.1. KӃ hoҥFKÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ 128 BҧQJ7K{QJWLQTX\P{Gӵ iQ 129 Bҧng 5.3. ChӍ WLrXWKLӃt kӃ FѫVӣ 129 Bҧng 5.4. ChӍ WLrXWKLӃt kӃ FѫVӣ (tt) 130 Bҧng 5.5. ThәQJNrGLӋQWtFKVjQ[k\GӵQJYjGLӋQWtFKWKѭѫQJSKҭm 131 1 &+ѬѪ1*MӢ DҪU 1.1 &ѫVӣ KuQKWKjQKÿӅ WjL 1.1.1. 7uQKKuQKÿҫXWѭYjSKiWWULӇn BҩWÿӝng sҧn cӫDQѭӟc ta HiӋn nay OƭQKYӵFÿҫXWѭ[k\GӵQJQyLFKXQJYjQJjQK%Ĉ6QyLULrQJWKu ViӋt 1DPOjPӝt trong sӕ FiFWKӏ WUѭӡng mӟi nәLYjQăQJÿӝQJWUrQWRjQFҫu. TӕFÿӝ WăQJ WUѭӣng kinh tӃ mҥnh mӁFQJWҫng lӟSWUXQJOѭXÿDQJJLDWăQg vӟi thu nhұSWăQJWUѭӣng QKDQKÿmJL~STXiWUuQKÿ{WKӏ KyDGLӉQUDQKDQKFKyQJOjPӝt trong nhӳQJOêGRJL~S ViӋt Nam nҵm trong nhӳng quӕFJLDFyWӕFÿӝ WăQJWUѭӣng GDP nhanh nhҩt thӃ giӟi. ³6DXPӝWJLDLÿRҥQVX\WKRiLQJҳn, nӅn kinh tӃ ViӋW1DPÿmFyVӵ phөc hӗi mҥnh mӁ, ÿѭӧFWK~Fÿҭy bӣi nhu cҫu nӝLÿӏa kӇ tӯ TXê,,´>@ Kinh tӃ ViӋW1DPÿҥt kӃt quҧNKiWtFKFӵFWURQJQăPYӟLWӕFÿӝWăQJWUѭӣQJ *'3ѭӟFÿҥWĈLӅXQj\JL~SWK~Fÿҭ\FiFQKjÿҫXWѭTXӕc tӃ tham gia tҥi thӏ WUѭӡng bҩWÿӝng sҧQÿҫy tiӅPQăQJQj\7KHRWKӕQJNrFӫa Bӝ ;k\Gӵng vӅ WuQKKuQKWKӵc hiӋn &KѭѫQJWUuQK3KiWWULӇQÿ{WKӏ quӕFJLDJLDLÿRҥn 2012± 2020 cho thҩ\WKuWtQKÿӃn hӃt TXê,,-2014, tӹ lӋ ÿ{WKӏ KyDFӫDQѭӟFWDÿҥWÿDVӕ tұp trung tҥLWKjQKSKӕ Hӗ &Kt 0LQKYj+j1ӝLYjFiFWӍnh xung quanh. [2] Thӏ WUѭӡQJ%Ĉ6SKөc hӗi kӇ tӯ QăPÿӃn nay cho thҩy nhӳQJÿLӅu chӍnh cӫa thӏ WUѭӡng lҥLOjPӝWWtQKLӋXWtFKFӵFWURQJGjLKҥn. MӝWFiFKÿѫQJLҧQOjNKLQKuQYjR sӵ tham gia cӫDFiFQJXӗn vӕQQJRjL9LӋt Nam trong nhiӅu giao dӏch chuyӇQQKѭӧng %Ĉ6OӟQWURQJQăPQD\± ӣ FiFSKkQNK~FFăQKӝYăQSKzQJQKjӣ ULrQJOҿ YjFK~QJ WDFyWKӇ cҧm nhұQÿѭӧc sӵ KjRKӭng cӫDFiFQKjÿҫXWѭQѭӟFQJRjLÿӕi vӟi thӏ WUѭӡng %Ĉ69LӋt Nam Theo nhұQÿӏnh cӫa mӝt sӕ FKX\rQJLD³0ӝt nӱa chһQJÿѭӡng cӫa thӏ WUѭӡng Bҩt ÿӝng sҧQQăPÿmÿLTXD%rQFҥnh mӝt sӕ WtQKLӋXWtFKFӵc vӅ FKtQKViFKÿѭӧFÿѭD UD WKuGѭӡQJ QKѭ WKӏ WUѭӡQJ ÿDQJ Fy QKӳQJ WtQ KLӋu nhӳQJ ÿӝW SKi KѫQQӳa ӣ chһng ÿѭӡQJFzQOҥi cӫDQăPÿӇ OjPWLӅQÿӅ cho thӏ WUѭӡnJQKjÿҩt thӵc sӵ hӗi phөFSKiWWULӇn WURQJJLDLÿRҥn tӟL´>@ 2 ³0һFGWiFÿӝng cӫa Covid-ÿѭӧc dӵ EiRVӁ FzQNpRGjLÿӃn cuӕLQăP WX\QKLrQWKӏ WUѭӡQJ%Ĉ6VӁ sӟm phөc hӗLYjSKiWWULӇQWURQJJLDLÿRҥn tiӃp theo 2021Ĉk\OjWKӡLÿLӇPNKyNKăQYӟi nhiӅXQKjÿҫXWѭWURQJYjQJRjLQѭӟFQyLFKXQJ QKѭQJÿӕi vӟi mӝt sӕPQKyPFiQKkQYjGRDQKQJKLӋSFyQăQJOӵFWjLFKtQKWӕt, nhiӅu kinh nghiӋPWKuÿk\OҥLOjFѫKӝi lӟQ´>@ 7KHRÿiQKJLiFKXQJFӫDFiFFKX\rQJLDYӅ OƭQKYӵF[k\GӵQJWKuP{LWUѭӡQJÿҫu Wѭ[k\Gӵng ӣ ViӋW1DPÿDQJWLӅm ҭn rҩt nhiӅu rӫi ro, phӭc tҥSQKѭWKӫ tөFSKiSOêFѫ sӣ hҥ tҫng, thӫ tөc vӅ ÿҩWÿDLELӃQÿӝQJJLiYұt liӋXFNJQJQKѭUӫLURWURQJTXiWUuQK[k\ dӵng, biӃQÿӝQJJLiEiQWUrQWKLWUѭӡng, biӃQÿӝng vӅ OmLVXҩWYjQJXӗn vӕn . Vӟi mӝt thӏ WUѭӡng to lӟQYjWLӅPQăQJQKѭQJWKӵc tӃ cho thҩ\FyUҩt nhiӅu doanh nghiӋp rҩt lӟn mҥnh vӅ mӑi mһt cҧ vӅ QăQJOӵFWjLFKtQKWKѭѫQJKLӋXQKѭQJNKLÿLYjR mҧQJÿҫXWѭNLQKGRDQK%Ĉ6WKuWKXDOӛ buӝc phҧLWKD\ÿәLQJKjQKQJKӅ thұPFKtSKi sҧQYjQӧ nҫQJ7X\QKLrQFNJQJFyQKLӅu chӫ ÿҫXWѭEҩWÿӝng sҧn WKjQKF{QJWӯ doanh nghiӋp nhӓ, nguӗn vӕQtWӓi. 1.1.2. QuҧQOêUӫi ro dӵ iQӣ ViӋt Nam Trong bӕi cҧnh hӝi nhұp quӕc tӃ VkXUӝng theo nӅn kinh tӃ thӏ WUѭӡQJQKѭKLӋn QD\FiFGӵ iQÿҫXWѭ[k\Gӵng F{QJWUuQKFNJQJFKӏu ҧQKKѭӣng nhiӅXNKLFyVӵ WiFÿӝng NK{QJәQÿӏnh tӯ P{LWUѭӡng xung quanh khi tiӃQKjQKWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ9LӋFÿiQKJLi YjFKӫ ÿӝng quҧQOêFiFҧQKKѭӣQJQj\OjUҩt quan trӑQJYjÿmÿѭӧc nhiӅXQѭӟFSKiW triӇQQJKLrQFӭXYjJLҧi quyӃt thjQKF{QJWURQJWKӵc tiӉn. Khi thӵc hiӋn Dӵ iQÿҫXWѭ [k\ Gӵng nhҵPÿҥt mөFWLrXÿҫXWѭFzQ SKiWWULӇn tҥRFѫVӣ vұt chҩWFKR[mKӝLQrQ WKѭӡQJFyWKӡi gian hoҥWÿӝQJGjLFKӏXWiF ÿӝng trӵc tiӃp tӯ nhiӅX P{LWUѭӡng xung TXDQKQKѭFKtQKWUӏ, kinh tӃ[mKӝi, tӵ QKLrQOXұWSKiSF{QJQJKӋ«'RYұy cҫQFyVӵ quҧQOêÿLӅu chӍQKSKKӧSWURQJTXiWUuQKWKӵc hiӋQQrQTXҧQOêUӫLURNKLÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQOjPӝt thӵc tӃ. %rQFҥQKÿyP{LWUѭӡQJ[k\Gӵng ӣ ViӋW1DPÿҫy rӫLURGRFѫVӣ hҥ tҫQJNpP chҩWOѭӧng, FѫFKӃ quҧQOêFKұPÿәi mӟi, hӋ thӕQJFKtQKSKӫ TXDQOLrXYjWKLӃXWtQK cҥQKWUDQKF{QJEҵng giӳa doanh nghiӋSWѭQKkQYjGRDQKQJKLӋS1KjQѭӟc [4]. Trong 3 ÿy³YLӋF[iFÿӏQKÿiQKJLiNLӇPVRiWQKҵm hҥn chӃ WiFÿӝQJWLrXFӵc tӟi dӵ iQFKѭD ÿѭӧFFK~QJWD FK~WUӑQJYjEӏ ÿӝQJ&KtQKFiFWiFÿӝQJNK{QJәn tӯ P{LWUѭӡng xung quanh cӝng vӟi viӋc quҧQOêӭQJSKyUӫLURNK{QJWӕt, dүn tӟi viӋc phҧLWKD\ÿәi nhiӅu WLrXFKtFѫEҧQYjKLӋu quҧ ÿҫXWѭFӫa dӵ iQÿѭӧc dӵ WtQKEDQÿҫu [5]. Rӫi ro xuҩt hiӋn khi tӗn tҥi ÿӗng thӡi hai yӃu tӕ FѫEҧn: yӃu tӕ Jk\UDUӫLURYj ÿӕLWѭӧng chӏXWiFÿӝng, ҧQKKѭӣng. Sӟm chӫ ÿӝng nhұn dҥQJSKkQWtFKÿiQKJLiFy biӋQSKiSNLӇPVRiWYjJLҧm thiҿXFiFWiFÿӝng xuҩy cӫa rӫLUROjKӃt sӭc cҫn thiӃt nhҵm ÿҧm bҧo khҧ thi, hiӋu quҧ cӫa dӵ iQ LuұW ;k\ Gӵng sӕ 50/2014/QH13, Nghӏ ÿӏnh sӕ 1Ĉ-&3QJj\FӫD&KtQKSKӫ vӅ quҧQOêGӵ iQÿҫXWѭ[k\Gӵng Yj FiFYăQEҧQKѭӟng dүn luұWNKiFÿѭӧFEDQKjQKWURQJWKӡLJLDQTXDÿm[iFOұSKjQKODQJ SKiSOêTXDQWUӑng tҥRÿLӅu kiӋQSKiWtriӇn bӅn vӳQJFiFKRҥWÿӝQJÿҫXWѭ[k\Gӵng ӣ QѭӟFWDÿmTX\ÿӏQKU}Qӝi dung thҭPÿӏnh dӵ iQÿҫXWѭ[k\GӵQJF{QJWUuQKFӫDQJѭӡi quyӃWÿӏQKÿҫXWѭWUѭӟFNKLSKrGX\Ӌt dӵ iQOj - ;HP[pWFiF\Ӄu tӕ bҧRÿҧPWtQKKLӋu quҧ cӫa dӵ iQEDRJӗm: sӵ cҫn thiӃt ÿҫu WѭTX\P{F{QJVXҩWF{QJQJKӋ; thӡi gian, tiӃQÿӝ thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQSKkQWtFKWjLFKtQK hiӋu quҧ kinh tӃ - [mKӝi cӫa dӵ iQ - ;HP[pWFiF\Ӄu tӕ bҧRÿҧPWtQKNKҧ thi cӫa dӵ iQEDRJӗm: sӵ SKKӧp vӟi quy hoҥch; nhu cҫu sӱ dөQJÿҩWWjLQJX\rQQӃu cyNKҧ QăQJKX\ÿӝng vӕQÿiSӭng tiӃn ÿӝ cӫa dӵ iQNLQKQJKLӋm quҧQOêFӫa chӫ ÿҫXWѭNKҧ QăQJKRjQWUҧ vӕn vay; giҧLSKiS SKzQJFKӕQJFKi\QәFiF\Ӄu tӕ ҧQKKѭӣQJÿӃn dӵ iQQKѭTXӕFSKzQJDQQLQKP{L WUѭӡng kinh tӃ [mKӝLYjFiFTX\ÿӏQKNKiFFӫa phiSOXұWFyOLrQTXDQ 1KѭYұ\WKHRFiFTX\ÿӏnh hiӋQKjQKFӫD1KjQѭӟc, viӋF[HP[pWYjNKҷQJÿӏnh WtQKNKҧ thi, hiӋu quҧ cӫa dӵ iQÿҫXWѭ[k\GӵQJF{QJWUuQKSKҧLÿѭӧFOjPU}YӅ nhiӅu mһt trong suӕt thӡLJLDQSKkQWtFKKRҥWÿӝng cӫa dӵ iQYzQJÿӡi cӫa dӵ iQWUѭӟc khi ra quyӃWÿӏQKÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ7URQJVӕ nhiӅu vҩQÿӅ cӫa dӵ iQÿѭӧF[HP[pWVӁ diӉn ra ӣ WѭѫQJODLYjWURQJÿLӅu kiӋQFiFWiFÿӝQJNK{QJәQQKѭWKӡLJLDQWjLFKtQK hiӋu quҧ kinh tӃ«WKu\rXFҫu cҫQSKkQWtFKUӫi ro khi lұSYjWKҭm ÿӏnh dӵ iQOjKӃt sӭc cҫn thiӃt. TuǤ thuӝFYjRPөFWLrXÿҫXWѭFKӭFQăQJSKөc vөFiFGӵ iQÿҫXWѭ[k\Gӵng 4 F{QJWUuQKFyWKӇ thuӝc mӝWWURQJKDLQKyPGӵ iQQKyPFiFGӵ iQQKҵm mөFÿtFKSKөc vө cӝQJÿӗQJ[mKӝi (phөc vө F{QJNK{QJWKXOӧi nhuұQYjQKyPdӵ iQYӟi mөFÿtFK sҧn xuҩt kinh doanh nhҵm thu lӧi nhuұQ7KHRÿyFiFWLrXFKtÿiQKJLiKLӋu quҧ ÿҫXWѭ ӣ mӛLQKyPGӵ iQFNJQJFyQKӳQJÿLӇPNKiFELӋWQKDX&iFGӵ iQWUѭӟc hӃt phҧLÿҧm bҧRFiF\rXFҫu vӅ SKiWWULӇQ[mKӝi, quy hoҥFKSKiSOêTX\FKXҭn, WLrXFKXҭn theo quy ÿӏQKWKuYҩQÿӅ hiӋu quҧ kinh tӃ - WjLFKtQKFӫa dӵ iQFyêQJKƭDTX\ӃWÿӏnh hiӋu quҧ ÿҫu WѭFӫa dӵ iQ9ӟLFiFGӵ iQSKөc vө F{QJKLӋu quҧ kinh tӃ - WjLFKtQKFҫQÿҥt tӟLOjFKL SKtWKҩp nhҩt cӫa dӵ iQWURQJFҧ YzQJÿӡLÿӕi vӟi dӵ iQ sҧn xuҩWNLQKGRDQKOjWKXÿѭӧc lӧi nhuұn cao nhҩt. Rӫi ro xuҩt hiӋQWKѭӡQJ[X\rQJk\WKLӋt hҥi cho hiӋu quҧ ÿҫXWѭFӫa dӵ iQ9ҩQÿӅ ÿһWUDÿӇ FK~QJWDQJKLrQFӭu, giҧi quyӃWOjQKұn dҥQJÿiQKJLiWiFÿӝng cӫa rӫLURYjNLӇPVRiWFK~QJÿӇ ÿҧm bҧo hiӋu quҧ ÿҫXWѭÿm[iFÿӏQKWUѭӟc cӫa dӵ iQ - &{QJWiFÿiQKJLiUͯLURFK˱Dÿ˱ͫFFK~WU͕ng: + Khi mӟi bҳWÿҫXKuQKWKjQKêWѭӣQJYjOұp dӵ iQOX{QFyVӵ SKkQWtFKWtQKWRiQ hiӋu quҧ ÿӇ quyӃW ÿӏQK ÿҫX Wѭ 7X\ QKLrQ NKL Fy FiF WiF ÿӝQJ NK{QJ әQ ÿӏnh tӯ P{L WUѭӡng xung quanh chӫ ÿҫXWѭEӏ ÿӝng dүn tӟi phҧLWKD\ÿәi nhiӅXWLrXFKtFѫEҧQÿѭӧc dӵ WtQK EDQÿҫXYjOjPWKD\ÿәi hiӋu quҧ ÿҫXWѭWKұPFKtWKXDOӛ + MӝWFKX\rQJLD[k\Gӵng ViӋW 1DPÿmNKҷQJÿӏQK/êWKX\ӃW YjWKӵc tiӉn trong viӋc quҧQOêUӫi ro tҥi ViӋW1DPFzQ\ӃXNpPYjJҫQQKѭӣ mӭc zero. Tҥi ViӋt Nam, nhӳng hҥn chӃ ÿӕi vӟi quҧQOêUӫi rRÿyOjWKLӃu hөt vӅ tә chӭc, thiӃu hөt vӅ ÿLӅu kiӋQ\rXFҫXQKѭWKӡLJLDQWjLQJX\rQYjJLiWKjQKFiFQKjTXҧQOêNK{QJTXHQWKXӝc vӟi quҧQOêUӫLUR1JRjLUDNKiFKKjQJOҥLNK{QJFyQKXFҫu vӅ quҧQOêUӫLURWKrP viӋc thiӃu hөWFKX\rQJLDYjNLQKQJhiӋm vӅ quҧQOêUӫLURWK{QJWLQWUDRÿәi giӳDFiF ÿӕLWiFEӏ giӟi hҥn" [5]. + Trong thӵc tӃ rҩt nhiӅu dӵ iQPj&Kӫ ÿҫXWѭGRWKLӃu hoһFF{QJWiFSKkQWtFK ÿiQKJLiYӅ rӫLURFKѭDWRjQGLӋQNK{QJÿѭӧFFK~WUӑQJQrQNK{QJWKӇ OѭӡQJWUѭӟFFiF rӫi ro tiӅm ҭQNK{QJFyVӵ dӵ SKzQJUӫi ro cҫn thiӃt khi lұp dӵ iQYjTX\ӃWÿӏQKÿҫXWѭ ĈyOjPӝt trong nhӳQJQJX\rQQKkQFKtQKÿӃn viӋc thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQNK{QJWKHRWKHRNӃ 5 hoҥFKÿ~QJFKLSKtPҩt khҧ QăQJWKXKӗi, thua lӛ thұPFKtSKiVҧQNpRWKHRQKLӅu hӋ lө\FKR1KjQѭӟc, tә chӭFFiQKkQYj[mKӝi. - &iFQJKLrQFͱXWU˱ͣFÿk\Y͉ SKkQWtFKqu̫QOêUͯLURÿmFyQK˱QJWK͹c t͇ ͱng dͭQJWKHRTXDQÿL͋m cͯa Chͯ ÿ̯XW˱O̩i thi͇u bͧLFiFOêGR + &iFQJKLrQFӭXWUѭӟFÿk\FzQULrQJUӁFKѭDEDRTXiWYjÿiQKJLiKӃWFiFQKkQ tӕ rӫi ro cӫa mӝWYzQJÿӡi thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQWӯ NKLKuQKWKjQKêWѭӣQJÿӃn khi KRjQWKjQK ÿѭDYjRVӱ dөQJYjYұQKjQKNKLOұSYjTX\ӃWÿӏQKÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ + &iFQJKLrQFӭXWUѭӟFÿk\WKLrQYӅ OêWKX\Ӄt kӻ thuұWPjFKѭD[pWQKLӅu vӅ yӃu tӕ WjLFKtQKNLQKWӃ [mKӝi, thӏ WUѭӡQJNLQKGRDQK%Ĉ6YjFKѭD[k\Gӵng mӝWTX\WUuQK P{KuQKFө thӇ vӟLYDLWUzOjPӝWQKjÿҫXWѭÿӇ ÿiQKJLiGӵ iQQKҵP[k\Gӵng kӃ hoҥch quҧQOêUӫi ro tәng thӇ 7yPOҥLFQJYӟi sӵ cҥQKWUDQKQJj\FjQJFDRF{QJQJKӋ SKiWWULӇQYjELӃQÿӝng NK{QJQJӯng tӯ P{LWUѭӡQJErQQJRjLGӵ iQTXҧQOêUӫLURFyêQJKƭa quan trӑQJĈһc biӋWOjYLӋFSKkQWtFKUӫLURWURQJJLDLÿRҥn lұp dӵ iQÿҫXWѭYuÿk\OjJLDLÿRҥQPjFiF 1KjÿҫXWѭFzQUҩWPѫKӗ vӅ dӵ iQYuPӑLSKkQWtFKÿӅXPDQJWtQKGӵ EiRYjѭӟFOѭӧng. &KtQKYuYұ\³ÿӇ sӱ dөng mӝWFiFKFyKLӋu quҧ nguӗn vӕQÿҫu WѭQKҵPWK~Fÿҭy nӅn kinh tӃ SKiWWULӇQWKuYLӋc thiӃt lұSSKkQWtFKGӵ iQWUrQFѫVӣ khoa hӑc, thӵc tiӉQNKiFK TXDQOjÿLӅu hӃt sӭc cҫn thiӃW´>@ 1.2 MөFWLrXQJKLrQFӭu: MөFWLrXFҫQQJKLrQFӭXOjSKkQWtFKÿiQKJLiFiFUӫLURWUtFKOұp dӵ SKzQJÿӇ kiӇm VRiWUӫi ro thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQӣ JLDLÿRҥQÿҫu khi chuҭn bӏ YjTX\ӃWÿӏnh thӵc hiӋn dӵ iQQKѭVDX - ;iFÿӏQKFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro, mӕLOLrQKӋ QJX\rQQKkQ± hӋ quҧ giӳDFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi URYjNKҧ QăQJ[ҧ\UDWURQJTXiWUuQKÿҫXWѭWKӵc hiӋn dӵ iQ - ÈSGөQJP{KuQK%D\HVLDQ1HWZRUN%%1¶6ÿӇ SKkQWtFKYjÿiQKJLiFiF\Ӄu tӕ rӫi ro.