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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY ******* HOÀNG VĂN VIỆT INVESTIGATING THE COMPETITIVENESS OF VIETNAM’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR: A MULTI-LEVEL APPROACH DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DISSERTATION Ho Chi Minh City, December 2017 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY ******* HOÀNG VĂN VIỆT INVESTIGATING THE COMPETITIVENESS OF VIETNAM’S AGRICULTURAL SECTOR: A MULTI-LEVEL APPROACH Major: Doctor Dissertation on Development Economics Code: 62310105 ACADEMIC ADVISERS: 1. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Trần Tiến Khai 2. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Từ Văn Bình A dissertation submitted to the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Ho Chi Minh City, December 2017 This dissertation is dedicated to the memory of my father-Hoàng Văn Thọ, to my mother-Trần Thị Sang, and to my daughterHoàng Nguyễn Minh Châu “The more I study science, the more I believe in God” -Albert Einstein- ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First of all, I would like to express my best gratitude to Prof. Trần Tiến Khai, Prof. Matthew Gorton, and Prof. Carmen Hubbard. Prof. Trần Tiến Khai brings me in the research career with the initial lesson, advice, and passion. Prof. Matthew Gorton and Prof. Carmen Hubbard raise me up to the international research standards with the advice, the lesson, and the research cooperation opportunities. Second, I am deeply thankful to my teachers: Dr. Phạm Khánh Nam, Prof. Nguyễn Trọng Hoài, Prof. Lionel Hubbard, Prof. Peter Goldsmith, Prof. Từ Văn Bình, Dr. Trương Đăng Thụy, and Prof. Nguyễn Ngọc Vinh for the lessons, guides, and advice. Third, I am really indebted to my colleagues: Mr. Nguyễn Khánh Duy, Ms. Nguyễn Quỳnh An, Ms. Nguyễn Hồng Mai, Ms. Nguyễn Phan Trúc Phương, and Mr. Hồ Minh Chí. They contribute the important parts to my achievement of this dissertation. Especially, I would express my gratitude and respect to Prof. Nguyễn Đông Phong who indirectly empower me with the strategic and excellent policies for young lecturers. Moreover, I am thankful to the board of professors, the independent reviewers, journal editorial boards, and journal reviewers for their constructive reviewing and comments. I am wholeheartedly grateful to my family for their love, trust, support, sharing, and encouragement. This dissertation would be never completed without them. Ho Chi Minh City, December 2017 Hoàng Văn Việt DECLARATION I, Hoàng Văn Việt, declare that the PhD dissertation entitled “Investigating and Comparing the Agricultural Competitiveness of Vietnam” strictly conforms to the regulations and the rules of Ministry of Education and Training and the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City. This dissertation contains no material that has been submitted previously, in whole or in part, for the award of any other academic degree or diploma. Except where otherwise indicated, this dissertation is my own work. Ho Chi Minh City, December, 2017 Hoàng Văn Việt i TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. v LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................ vii LIST OF APPENDICES ................................................................................................ viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................ x CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION...................................................................................... 1 1.1. Background .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Research gap identification .................................................................................. 6 1.3. Research objectives and questions ....................................................................... 9 1.4. Brief of research methodology, scope, and data ................................................ 12 1.5. Expected significance and contribution ............................................................. 14 1.6. The structure and outline of the dissertation ...................................................... 16 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW......................................................................... 18 2.1 Definition of competitiveness ............................................................................ 18 2.2 Evolution of competitiveness theory .................................................................. 23 2.3 Frameworks of competitiveness ......................................................................... 34 2.3.1 Economic and production indicators ........................................................... 36 2.3.2 Trade performance indices .......................................................................... 47 2.4 Summary and the general framework of the dissertation................................... 56 CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND DATA ....................................... 60 3.1 The trade performance indices ........................................................................... 60 3.1.1 Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) .................................................... 60 3.1.2 Relative trade advantage (RTA) .................................................................. 61 ii 3.1.3 Normalized revealed comparative advantage (NRCA) ............................... 62 3.1.4 Dynamics of comparative advantage indicators .......................................... 64 3.1.5 Complementarity and substitutability analysis ............................................ 68 3.1.6 Consistency analysis .................................................................................... 70 3.1.7 The data for the trade performance indices ................................................. 71 3.2 The economic and production indicators in the PAM model ............................ 72 3.2.1 Private profitability (PP - D) ....................................................................... 73 3.2.2 Private cost ratio (PCR) ............................................................................... 74 3.2.3 Social profitability (SP - H) ......................................................................... 74 3.2.4 Domestic resource cost (DRC) .................................................................... 75 3.2.5 Social cost-benefit (SCB) ............................................................................ 75 3.2.6 Nominal protection coefficient (NPC) ........................................................ 76 3.2.7 Effective protection coefficient (EPC) ........................................................ 77 3.2.8 Profitability coefficient (PC) ....................................................................... 77 3.2.9 Subsidy ratio to producers (SRP) ................................................................ 77 3.2.10 The data and estimations for the PAM indicators .................................... 77 3.2.11 Sensitivity analysis of the PAM indicators .............................................. 83 CHAPTER 4: VIETNAM’S AGRICULTURAL TRADE COMPETITIVENESS: THE CROSS-SECTIONS ANALYSIS .................................................................................... 85 4.1 Vietnam’s agricultural trade competitiveness by the RCA ................................ 85 4.1.1 Measuring the static competitiveness .......................................................... 85 4.1.2 Analyzing the dynamics of the competitiveness indicators ........................ 87 4.2 Vietnam’s agricultural trade competitiveness by the RTA ................................ 91 iii 4.2.1 Measuring the static competitiveness .......................................................... 91 4.2.2 Analyzing the dynamics of the RTA indicators .......................................... 92 4.3 Vietnam’s agricultural trade competitiveness by the NRCA ............................. 96 4.3.1 Measuring the static competitiveness .......................................................... 96 4.3.2 Analyzing the dynamics of of the NRCA indicators ................................... 98 4.4 The consistencies of the trade performance indices: sector-ranking ............... 101 CHAPTER 5: THE ASEAN COUNTRIES’ AGRICULTURAL TRADE PATTERNS: THE CROSS-COUNTRIES ANALYSIS ..................................................................... 103 5.1 The agricultural international trade performance of ASEAN countries .......... 104 5.1.1 Agricultural competitiveness by the RCA ................................................. 104 5.1.2 Agricultural competitiveness by the RTA ................................................. 106 5.1.3 Agricultural competitiveness by NRCA index .......................................... 107 5.1.4 Analyzing the dynamics of agricultural competitiveness indicators ......... 109 5.2 The trade agricultural complementarity of the ASEAN countries ................... 111 5.2.1 The agricultural trade complementarity of the ASEAN countries ............ 111 5.2.2 The agricultural export similarity of the ASEAN countries...................... 113 5.2.3 The agricultural complementarity by Spearman coefficients.................... 114 5.2.4 The impact of external markets and factors .............................................. 117 5.3 The consistencies of the trade performance indices: country-ranking ............. 119 CHAPTER 6: THE COMPETITIVENESS OF ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURAL CROPS: A CASE STUDY OF BEN TRE..................................................................... 121 6.1 Measuring the comparative advantage of the alternative crops ....................... 122 6.1.1 The comparative advantage of rice............................................................ 122 iv 6.1.2 The comparative advantage of coconut ..................................................... 125 6.1.3 The comparative advantage of pomelo...................................................... 128 6.2 Indicators and sectors consistency and comparison analysis ........................... 130 6.3 Sensitive analysis of the comparative advantage indicators ............................ 134 6.3.1 Climate changes ......................................................................................... 134 6.3.2 Water and land charges ............................................................................. 135 6.3.3 The parameters of assuming changes of the variables .............................. 136 CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS ............................................... 139 7.1 Vietnam’s agricultural trade competitiveness .................................................. 139 7.2 The ASEAN countries’ agricultural trade patterns .......................................... 141 7.3 Competitiveness of alternative agricultural production systems in Ben Tre ... 143 7.4 Theoretical analysis and conclusion ................................................................. 146 7.5 Policy implications ........................................................................................... 148 Re-structuring the agricultural production and trade pattern ................................. 149 Maintaining the rankings of strong competitiveness sectors ................................. 150 Expanding and enforcing the regional and global integration ............................... 151 Building the agricultural production master plans ................................................. 152 Promoting sustainable agriculture and adapting to climate changes ...................... 153 LIST OF MY PUBLICATIONS & PROJECTS ............................................................... 1 LIST OF REFERENCES ................................................................................................... 4 APPENDICES ................................................................................................................. 29 v LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1: The evolution of competitiveness theory ........................................................ 33 Table 2-2: The measures of competitiveness by level of analysis ................................... 35 Table 3-1: The accounting structure of policy analysis matrix ....................................... 73 Table 3-2: Sample descriptions for the PAM indicators ................................................. 79 Table 4-1: Vietnam’s top agricultural competitiveness by the RCA ............................... 86 Table 4-2: The change of the RCA indicators position between 1997 and 2014 ............ 87 Table 4-3: The OLS estimation results for the RCA indicators over three periods ........ 88 Table 4-4: The classifications of RCA values and the interpretations ............................ 89 Table 4-5: The M-Shorrocks and Markov transition matrix for the RCA values ............ 89 Table 4-6: The top gaining and losing trends of the RCA indicators .............................. 90 Table 4-7: Vietnam’s top agricultural competitiveness by the RTA ................................ 92 Table 4-8: The changes of the RTA indicator ranks between 1997 and 2014 ................. 93 Table 4-9: The OLS estimation results for the RTA indicators over three periods ......... 93 Table 4-10: The classification of the RTA values and the interpretations ...................... 94 Table 4-11: The M-Shorrocks and Markov transition matrix for the RTA values .......... 95 Table 4-12: The top gaining and losing trends of the RTA indicators ............................ 96 Table 4-13: Vietnam’s top agricultural trade competitiveness by the NRCA ................. 97 Table 4-14: The changes of the NRCA indicator ranks between 1997 and 2014 ........... 98 Table 4-15: The OLS estimation results for the NRCA indicators over time .................. 99 Table 4-16: The classification of the of NRCA values and the interpretations ............... 99 Table 4-17: The Markov transition probability matrix for the NRCA indicators ........... 99 Table 4-18: The top gaining and losing trends of the NRCA indicators ....................... 100 Table 4-19: The consistencies the RCA, the RTA, and the NRCA by sector-ranking ... 102 Table 5-1: The agricultural competitiveness of the ASEAN countries by the RCA ....... 105 Table 5-2: The number of strong agricultural competitive sectors by the RCA ............ 106 Table 5-3: The agricultural competitiveness of the ASEAN countries by the RTA ....... 107 vi Table 5-4: The agricultural competitiveness of the ASEAN countries by the NRCA .... 108 Table 5-5: The agricultural competitiveness ranking of the ASEAN countries ............ 108 Table 5-6: The agricultural competitiveness patterns of the ASEAN countries ............ 110 Table 5-7: The Markov transition probability matrices result ...................................... 111 Table 5-8: The agricultural trade complementarity by the TCI .................................... 112 Table 5-9: The agricultural export similarities of the ASEAN countries ...................... 113 Table 5-10: The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients of the RCA indicators ....... 115 Table 5-11: The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients of the RTA indicators ....... 116 Table 5-12: The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients of the NRCA indicators .... 116 Table 5-13: Mean coefficients of the consistency between trade indices ...................... 120 Table 6-1: Rice’s PAM summary and comparative advantage indicators (VND) ........ 124 Table 6-2: Rice’s comparative advantage by the trade indices .................................... 125 Table 6-3: Coconut’s PAM summary and comparative advantage indicators (VND).. 127 Table 6-4: Coconut’s comparative advantage by the trade indices .............................. 127 Table 6-5: Pomelo’s PAM summary and comparative advantage indicators (VND) ... 130 Table 6-6: Pomelo’s comparative advantage by the trade indices ............................... 130 Table 6-7: Comparing the competitiveness of different sectors by various indices ...... 133 Table 6-8: The comparative advantage indicators with the land opportunity cost ....... 134 Table 6-9: Sensitivity analysis of the PAM indicators by the climate change .............. 135 Table 6-10: Sensitivity analysis of the PAM indicators by water & land charges ........ 135 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2-1: The general analysis framework of the dissertation .................................... 59 Figure 5-1: The trend of the ASEAN countries’ agricultural trade complementarity .. 112 Figure 5-2: The trend of the ASEAN countries’ agricultural export similarity ............ 114 Figure 5-3: The general trend of the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients .......... 117 Figure 5-4: The shares of the top markets in the ASEAN’s total agricultural export ... 118 Figure 5-5: The shares of the top markets in the ASEAN’s total agricultural import .. 118 viii LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix 1: Determinants of competitiveness ................................................................. 29 Appendix 2: Multidimensional frameworks ..................................................................... 32 Appendix 3: Value chain performance approaches ......................................................... 39 Appendix 4: Benchmarking .............................................................................................. 43 Appendix 5: The ASEAN countries’ agricultural sectors ................................................ 47 Appendix 6: Vietnamese agricultural sector ................................................................... 49 Appendix 7: The Agriculture in Ben Tre Province .......................................................... 57 Appendix 8: Agricultural comparative advantages of Vietnam by the RCA ................... 60 Appendix 9: Agricultural comparative advantages of Vietnam by the RTA .................... 61 Appendix 10: Agricultural comparative advantages of Vietnam by the NRCA .............. 62 Appendix 11: ASEAN countries’ agricultural competitiveness by the RCA in 2015 ....... 65 Appendix 12: ASEAN countries’ agricultural competitiveness by the RTA in 2015 ....... 66 Appendix 13: ASEAN countries’ agricultural competitiveness by the NRCA in 2015 .... 68 Appendix 14: OLS regression of ASEAN countries’ competitiveness indicators ............ 70 Appendix 15: Classes of RCA, RTA, and NRCA values and the interpretations ............. 71 Appendix 16: Markov transition probability matrix for the RCA index .......................... 72 Appendix 17: Private and social input cost of rice sector (1000VND) ........................... 74 Appendix 18: Private and social input cost of coconut sector (1000VND) ..................... 74 Appendix 19: Private and social input cost of pomelo sector (1000VND) ..................... 75 Appendix 20: Private and social output of rice sector (1000VND)................................. 75 Appendix 21: Private and social output of coconut sector (1000VND) .......................... 76 Appendix 22: Private and social output of pomelo sector (1000VND) ........................... 77 Appendix 23: Sensitivity analysis of competitiveness indicators by the output prices .... 77 Appendix 24: Sensitivity analysis of competitiveness indicators by the fertilizer prices 78 Appendix 25: Sensitivity analysis of competitiveness indicators by the land rent prices 78 Appendix 26: Sensitivity analysis of competitiveness indicators by the crop yields ....... 79 ix Appendix 27: Sensitivity analysis of competitiveness indicators by the REER ............... 79 Appendix 28: Survey questionnaire for coconut farmer .................................................. 80 Appendix 29: Survey questionnaire for coconut trader/collector ................................... 85 Appendix 30: Survey questionnaire for coconut primary processor ............................... 88 Appendix 31: Survey questionnaire for coconut producer/processor ............................. 91 x LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AEC: ASEAN Economic Community AFTA: ASEAN Free Trade Area APEC: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ASEAN: Association of Southeast Asian Nations CA: Comparative Advantage CEPEA: Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia CPTPP: Comprehensive & Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership DRC: Domestic Resource Cost EAFTA: East Asia Free Trade Area EC: European Commission EEU: Eurasian Economic Union EFTA: EU Free Trade Agreement EPC: Effective Protection Coefficient ESI: Export Similarity Index EU: European Union FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization GCI: Global Competitiveness Index GDVC: General Department of Vietnam Customs GSO: General Statistics Office of Vietnam GTTR: Global Travel & Tourism Report ITC: International Trade Centre NCI: National Competitiveness Index NPC: Nominal Protection Coefficient NRCA: Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development PAM Policy Analysis Matrix xi PC: Profitability Coefficient PCI: Provincial Competitiveness Index PCR: Private Cost Ratio PP: Private Profitability RCA: Revealed Comparative Advantage RCEP: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership RMA: Relative Import Advantage RSCA: Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage RTA: Relative Trade Advantage RXA: Relative export Advantage SCB: Social Cost and Benefit SP: Social Profitability SRP: Subsidy Ratio to Producers TCI: Trade Complementarity Index TPP: Trans-Pacific Partnership UN Comtrade: United Nations International Trade Statistics Database UNCTAD: United National Conference on Trade and Development WB: World Bank WCY: World Competitiveness Yearbook WEF: World Economic Forum WTO: World Trade Organization 1 CHAPTER 1: 1.1. INTRODUCTION Background Vietnam’s economic system has been significantly reformed with the goal of building a socialist-oriented market economy since Doi Moi (Renovation) in 1986 and the country has comprehensively integrated into the global economy since the early 1990s. Vietnam has become the member of regional and international trade organizations and schemes such as ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), World Trade Organization (WTO), and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP-CPTPP). The country has signed bilateral trade agreements with countries and regions such as the United States, Japan, Chile, Korea, Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), and European Communities (EU). Vietnam is going to sign bilateral trade agreements with Israel and EU Free Trade Agreement (EFTA). Especially, the future trade agreement of ASEAN + 6 will remarkably expand the free trade market and strongly enhance trades between the countries to build up the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The economic development, industrialization process, and transition of Vietnam have been significantly supported and contributed by the agricultural sector. First, agricultural export accounts for over 33 percent in 1997 and 17 percent in 2014 of the total export value and contribute foreign exchange to import the essential technology, machines, materials, and other equipment for economic development and industrialization process. Second, the agricultural sector accounts for 26 percent in 1997 and 18.12 percent in 2014 of Vietnam’s gross domestic product. Third, Vietnam’s agricultural sector accounts for more than 48 percent of total employment as the third most dependent country on agricultural employment in the world, just after Bhutan and Cambodia. Fourth, the sector is one of the key economic activities in the rural economy and an important source of livelihood amongst rural population. There is about 67.1 percent of the country’s population living in rural areas in 2014 (GSO, 2017; WB, 2 2017). Fifth, moreover, the agricultural sectors and rural areas can play the important roles in both labor supply and demand markets. Though achieving advantage from the natural environment, fertile soil and abundant water resource Vietnam’s agricultural sectors encounter the problems of domination of small-scale farms, negative impact on the environment, cultivation land conversion towards urbanization and industrialization, new challenges from climate changes, increasing input costs, and low productivity. Vietnam’s agricultural sector is mainly based on the traditional and land-intensive production methods. This makes the agricultural sector to be dependent on the natural conditions and market situations and may cause the farmers the unstable and low incomes. Moreover, the agricultural product markets and prices of Vietnam are relatively unstable and fluctuating without the master agricultural production plans in long term. These challenges and issues require the government, enterprises, and producers to re-structure and plan the general agricultural sectors. The farmers have to make production choices between the alternative crops in their arable lands or fields to increase the productivities and maximize the incomes subject to the farms’ production conditions and the market demands. The conventional economic wisdom would propose that the country should utilize its scarce resources and specialize in producing agricultural commodities which have stronger competitive advantages and generate higher adding values (Yu et al., 2010). The fundamental economic problem is how to allocate limited resources in order to ensure social welfare, including full employment and high living standards for all today and in the future (Latruffe, 2010). However, the scarcity of resources forces us to make choices by answering three basic economic questions: what goods to produce, how to produce, and for whom to produce (Begg et al, 2005). The matter is how to respond to the questions or what economic indicators support us to make the choices. Competitiveness is a central concept and measure in stimulating policy and business strategy discussions by policymakers, farmers, enterprises, and researchers. Researchers 3 and policy makers are interested in which sectors can contribute the most to nation’s economic growth and they often turn to the concept of competitiveness as a basis for analysis. Enterprises and farmers are interested in which businesses make the most profit for them and they also refer to competitiveness as a key indicator (Latruffe, 2010). The researchers are interested in which sectors can contribute the most to nation’s economic growth and they often turn to the concept of competitiveness as a basis for analysis. The enterprises and the farmers are interested in which businesses make the most profit for them and they also refer to competitiveness as a key indicator. Competitiveness is a relatively broad subject and concept which is related to various economic theories and empirical literature. Though there is much agreement on the economic and social importance of competitiveness indicators to make choice decisions, it is less clear what exactly competitiveness is and what its most important determinants of competitiveness are (Fischer and Schornberg, 2007; Martin, 2003). The concept is widely researched from the classical economic theory and employed in both theoretical and empirical studies from different points of view but there is little agreement on its definition (Bojnec and Ferto, 2009). There are various frameworks to assess the competitiveness at various levels with different research objectives according to six main disciplines as follows: (i) the economic and production indicators of competitiveness; (ii) the trade performance indices; (iii) the determinants of competitiveness; (iv) the multidimensional frameworks; (v) the value chain performance approaches; and (vi) the benchmarking. In this thesis, the authors will employ the first and second approaches to achieve the research objectives (the authors’ review, 2017). The main measures for agricultural competitiveness in economic literature are the economic indicators and the trade indices. These competitiveness approaches indicate the different economic literature and provide diverse policy implications. It is, therefore, necessary to compare and test the consistency between these approaches. 4 For decades, Vietnam and the ASEAN countries have paid more attention to the agricultural export strategies based on the competitive advantage to utilize the scare natural and social resources and take advantages of the regional and global integration to maximize the economic and social welfare. The establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in 2015 with objectives of a single market, a competitive economic region, equitable economic development, and integration into the global economy offers both opportunities and challenges to the member countries. The AEC involves liberalizing trade in goods and services; protecting and promoting investment; narrowing down the social and economic development gap; and enhancing the free flow of skilled labor and freer flow of capital. Moreover, the ASEAN has signed free trade agreements with dialogue partner countries such as Australia & New Zealand, China, India, Japan, and Republic of Korea with different objectives, namely, strengthening ASEAN’s trade and economic relationship with the partners, improving the economic competitiveness of ASEAN countries as well as increasing the living standard, enhancing economic integration of ASEAN countries, and creating of a more enormous free market. The RCEP is proposed for a free trade agreement between these partners with taking into account the EAFTA and the CEPEA. The AEC offers the opportunities in the form of a huge market of US$2.6 trillion and over 622 million people in 2014. The ASEAN area is collectively the third largest economy in Asia and the seventh largest economy in the world (ASEAN, 2017). Petri et al. (2012) believe that the ASEAN economic integration could gain a similar result to those coming from the European market, amounting to 5.3 percent of the region’s income. The benefits could be doubled if regional integration also leads to new free trade agreements with key external partners and the whole region will share in these benefits. However, there are various challenges to the AEC member countries and obstacles to the AEC progress. Although the ASEAN countries are diverse in terms of social, economic, and political structures, they are in a similar geographical area and natural
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