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GENERALITIES OF THE
STUDY 1. Background of the Study
Export activities play an important role for the economic development of
many developing countries in recent years. There have been many studies
evaluating the impact of factors on exports of a country such as Rahman, M., M.,
(2003), Blomqvist, H., C., (2004), Wei G. , Huang J. and Yang J. (2012), Tang
(2003) ... in general, these studies all point to the main factors affecting a
country's exports including GDP, GDP per capita, population, geographical
distance, CPI, FDI, exchange rate. However, the export of a country today is
not simply influenced by factors within the economy, there are externalities
that also have a strong impact on this process, including the trend of economic
integration. international economic and trade liberalization today.
ASEAN has always been one of the most important trading partners and
an important driving force for Vietnam to maintain its economic growth for
many years. With the increasing role and importance of trade relations between
Vietnam and ASEAN, it is necessary to study carefully the influence of factors
on Vietnam's export to ASEAN countries. . However, the current studies only
mention trade relations between Vietnam and major markets but do not
mention much about ASEAN market, for example the study of Nguyen Bac
Xuan (2010), Thai Tri Đo. (2006), Nguyen Hai Tho (2013), Dinh Thi Thanh
Binh and Hoang Manh Cuong (2012) ... There are very few studies that
consider the impact of these factors on the export of each specific product
group of Vietnam. How to market ASEAN countries. Therefore, it is necessary
to have a general research on the trade relations between Vietnam and ASEAN
countries, the factors affecting Vietnam's exports to ASEAN countries, which
consider carefully the instruments. of each of these elements to specific
product groups of Vietnam. With the importance of the ASEAN region and the
urgency of practice, the author has selected the topic "The determinants of
export flows between Vietnam and ASEAN’s members".
2. Research Objectives
Analyzing the basic theoretical issues about the factors affecting a
country's exports in the process of international economic integration.
Analyzing the current situation of Vietnam's exports to ASEAN countries,
which key factors are affecting Vietnam's exports to ASEAN countries. Trends and
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levels of impact of each of these factors on the export of specific commodity
groups of Vietnam to ASEAN countries.
Solutions to boost Vietnam's exports to ASEAN countries in the context
of forming the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC).
3. Scope of the Research
3.1.Research subjects
The thesis studies the factors affecting Vietnam's exports to ASEAN
countries.
3.2.Scope of the Research
The study focused on considering the impact of factors on Vietnam's
export of goods to ASEAN countries. Export of services is not within the
scope of the thesis research. The thesis uses secondary data sources for
research in the period of 1997-2015.
4. Research Questions
What key factors are affecting Vietnam's exports to ASEAN countries?
How is the trend and degree of impact of each of these factors on export
turnover of goods in general and export turnover of each commodity group of
Vietnam in particular to ASEAN countries?
5. Research Methods
− Specific historical method combining logic method
− Method of historical divergence
− Comparative method:
− Descriptive statistics method
The thesis uses a combination of qualitative research methods and
quantitative research methods
Methods of collecting and processing data
Data on GDP, exports and FDI are collected from the World Bank (The
World Bank - WB) and GSO, United Nations Commodity Statistics Database
(UN Comtrade); population is collected and calculated from the WB; Data on
exchange rates are collected from the International Monetary Fund (IMF);
Data on distance between countries is collected from the website
www.freemaptools.com.
6. New contributions of the thesis
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Previous studies mainly consider factors affecting Vietnam's exports to
major markets such as EU, US, or factors affecting the export of Vietnam, so
they do not see the role and position of the day. The increase of ASEAN
market as well as the impact of these factors on export turnover of each
specific commodity group has not been seen. This study comprehensively
examines the factors that can affect Vietnam's exports to ASEAN countries.
Thereby, partly contribute to fill the research gap in this field.
In addition, the thesis also considers the impact of factors on export
turnover of each specific product group, which is another contribution point to
supplement and improve research in this field.
Along with assessing the status of exports through general indicators
such as export turnover and export volume as previous studies, the thesis adds
indicators reflecting export level such as profit index. Comparative expression
(RCA), export similarity index (ESI), trade concentration index (TII) as a basis
for further objective assessment of Vietnam's export status to ASEAN
countries, here is also the contribution and supplement point of the thesis.
This study can provide data on the importance of factors affecting
Vietnam's exports to ASEAN countries. Thereby providing some necessary
information for the State management agencies to serve as a basis for
developing policies to promote exports to regional markets in the context of
establishing AEC in late 2015.
7. Structure of the thesis
The thesis is structured into 4 chapters with the following main contents:
Chapter 1: Research overview
Adam Smith with "Wealth of Nations" (1776) and David Ricacdo with
"On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation" (1817) and later
"Principle of Economics" (1951) as a rationale. Important theory for
explaining the formation of commercial activity in the world. Entering the new
development stage (early twentieth century), classical trade theory revealed
limitations and cannot be explained: Where is the origin of relative advantage?
Why do different countries have different opportunity costs? ... Heckscher Ohlin theory explains the nature of trade exchange by exchanging redundant
elements to get scarce elements. . The limitations of the Heckscher - Ohlin
model are the basis for the introduction of "New Trade Theory" by Krugman
(1979) "Scale economies, Product differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade"
on the basis of economic theory. In terms of scale, the diversity of consumer
preferences and monopolistic competition explain this phenomenon.
1.1.1.2. Trade theory in international economic integration
Chapter 2: Theoretical Review about exports and factors affecting exports
Chapter 3: Factors affecting Vietnam's exports to ASEAN countries
Chapter 4: Solutions to boost Vietnam's export of goods to ASEAN
countries
CHAPTER 1
REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE AND
STUDIES 1.1. Review of related literature and study
1.1.1. Overview of some trade theory related to the country's export activities
1.1.1.1. Theory of international trade
The theory of classical economic integration or static analysis includes
studies of trade integration and explains theoretical issues related to preferential
trade agreements based on Jakob Viner's thematic book "The problem of Customs
Union"(1951), is often called the first study on the benefits of economic
integration. The theory of classical economic integration until the 1960s showed
that the explanation of "trade creation" and "trade movement" was inadequate, the
theory of classical economic integration seemed impossible to beat. fully pricing
the impact of integration on welfare, so that the new economic integration theory
that is often called dynamic analysis is born.
1.1.2. Overview of research methods has been applied to study
the factors affecting exports
Qualitative research is an approach to exploration, description and
interpretation based on the means of examining experience, awareness, motivation,
intent, behavior, attitude. Typical qualitative studies include Word Trade Report
(2004), Robert E. Looney (1994), Zahide Ayyıldız Onaran and Tülay Yazar Öztürk
(2008), Somnuk Keretho and Saisamorn Naklada (2011) ...
Quantitative research is currently the most popular study in trade
analysis. It is a study that uses different methods to quantify, measure, reflect
and interpret relationships between factors (variables) together. In particular,
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Gravity model is still being widely used in analyzing factors affecting trade as
well as international trade movement.
1.1.3. Overview of the main research results of the research works
1.1.3.1. The main research results of the research on factors affecting exports
1.1.3.2. The main research results of studies on factors affecting Vietnam's
exports
There are many studies examining the basic factors affecting Vietnam's
exports to specific markets and specific products.
Nguyen Bac Xuan (2010) in his study used the expanded steam model
and table data frame to consider the important factors affecting Vietnam's
export flows in the period 1986-2008. The results show that there is a positive
correlation between Vietnam's exports and some factors such as export
partners' GDP. In addition, the geographical distance has a negative impact on
Vietnam's export activities.
Thai Tri Do (2006) also used gravity model to consider trade relations
between Vietnam and 23 European countries in the period 1993-2004. This
study also shows that in the trade relations between Vietnam and European
countries, the economic size is expressed by GDP, market size (market size),
the real exchange rate of Vietnam. Men with 23 European countries play an
important role in trade relations between Vietnam and these countries.
Le Thi An Thai (2016) in their research on trade between Vietnam and
ASEAN countries also pointed out the factors affecting exports include GDP,
population, distance, dummy variables LANDLOCK, ATIGA . However, the
research mentioned is quite simple, many variables have not been included in
the model to assess the impact such as variable AFTA, boundary variable,
FDI, GMS. In addition, this study, when referring to the impact of factors on
commodity groups, only assesses the overall impact on two groups of raw
goods and processed goods, not considering the specific impacts for each
category of goods.
The main research results of the research work on factors affecting a
country's exports
Wee Chian Koh (2013) examines the factors affecting trade in Brunei
Darussalam in the period 2000-2011. The study found that GDP, population,
colonial relations and trade agreements have a positive impact on the level of
trade concentration with countries, while the geographical distance has a
negative effect.
Bounlert Vanhnalat et al (2015) studied the impact of a free trade
agreement (FTA) between Laos and 32 trading partners during 1996-2011. The
study indicates that the use of incentives in trade agreements focuses mainly on
natural resource products.
Irwan Shah Zainal Abidin and fortifications (2016) used trade data of
Malaysia and ASEAN-5 countries in the period of 1990-2013. The results of
the study show that geographical distance, population size, economic size and
exchange rate are Malaysia's trade determinants for ASEAN-5 countries during
the study period.
Main research results of studies on factors affecting exports between
intra-regional trade and commerce blocks of economic sectors
Rahul Sen et al. (2013) analyze the initial impacts of bilateral agreements
and regional trade preferences (PTA) on the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN), and countries like Australia, New Zealand, China, India,
Japan and South Korea for the period 1994 to 2006. Research indicates that
multilateral PTA has greater impact than bilateral PTA, in stimulating trade
between ASEAN countries + 6.
Ammi Ardiyanti (2015) examines the impact of AFTA on ASEAN
member exports. The estimated results of the gravitational model show that the
exporting country's GDP has a positive effect on exports. GDP of importing
countries positively affects exports. Population in exporting countries and
importing countries has a big and positive impact on exports. Turning distance
related to transportation costs has become an important barrier to the ability to
export ASEAN members.
1.2. Literature review of the factors affecting Vietnam's exports to
countries / regions
First, these studies focus on Vietnam's (traditional) trading partners those that account for a large share of export turnover. Few commercial
research works of Vietnam with ASEAN countries - an important trade area of
Vietnam in the process of integration.
Secondly, there has not been any study to assess how the level / level of
Vietnam's integration from AFTA until the establishment of AEC affects
Vietnam's exports to ASEAN countries.
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Thirdly, there has not been any research on the issue outside the influence of
intra-ASEAN factors, how Vietnam and other countries participating in other
economic links affect the export. Vietnam to ASEAN countries.
Fourth, there has not been any study to examine the impact of factors on
the export of each commodity group, this is also the point to explain more
clearly than previous studies.
With the missing points and the points that need further clarification, the
thesis uses gravity model to evaluate the factors affecting Vietnam's exports to
ASEAN countries, with additional The integration factor not only meets the
research objectives but also meets the current situation of the study,
contributing to the addition of gaps in empirical research.
CHAPTER 2
THEORETICAL ISSUES ON EXPORT AND FACTORS
IMPACT TO EXPORT
2.1. Theoretical issues of export
2.1.1. Concept of export and export
2.1.1.1. Concept of export
In general, export activity: first of all, is the exchange of goods and
services of a country with other countries in the world in the form of trade
through market relations.
2.1.1.2. Forms of export
Direct export
Export through intermediaries
Form of re-export
2.1.2. The role of exports in the economy
First, export creates capital for imports and industrialization and
modernization
Second, exports contribute to economic restructuring
Thirdly, promote modern equipment and production technology
innovation
Fourth, to create jobs and improve people's lives
Fifth, expand and promote external economic relations
2.1.3. System of criteria for evaluating a country's export
2.1.3.1. Criteria reflecting export scale
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Export proportion
Export volume
2.1.3.2. Criteria for evaluating export qualifications
− Revealed comparative advantage (RCA)
− Trade intensity index (TII)
− Export similarity index (ESI)
2.2. Theoretical issues of factors affecting the country's exports
2.2.1. The rationale for selecting the factors affecting the country's exports
When examining the factors affecting a country's exports it will include
factors affecting its exports and the factors affecting its imports.
In particular, the group of factors affecting the supply of the exporting
country (expressing the production capacity of the exporting country)
includes: economy size (GDP), population size; policies to encourage export
of the state; the group of factors affecting the demand of the importing country
(reflecting the purchasing power of the importing country) including
population size and economic size (GDP); group of attractive factors / trade
barriers between the two countries.
2.2.2. Factors affecting a country's exports
2.2.2.1. Factors affecting supply
− Export support tools and policies of the State
− Economy scale (GDP) of the exporting country
− Exporter's population
2.2.2.2. Factors affecting demand
− Scale of economy (GDP) of importing countries
− Population of importing countries
2.2.2.3. Trade-attractive and trade restrictive factors
− Level of Vietnam regional integration
− Economic and trade relations between Vietnam and ASEAN countries
− Quality of export goods
− Tariff barriers
− Non-tariff measures and non-tariff barriers
− Border trade between Vietnam and neighboring countries in ASEAN
− Competitiveness of export enterprises
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− Connect Vietnam's logistics system with other countries in ASEAN
region for export
− Vietnam's participation in regional production
networks Comparative advantage in export
CHAPTER 3
ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE EXPORT OF VIETNAM
TO ASEAN COUNTRIES
3.1. Factors affecting Vietnam's exports to ASEAN countries during the
period (1997-2003)
3.1.1. Current situation of Vietnam's exports to ASEAN region during 1997-
2003
Export proportion
Since the time of joining ASEAN, Vietnam - ASEAN relations have been
constantly expanded, especially in the field of trade cooperation. As ASEAN
gradually became Vietnam's leading economic partner, the rate of bilateral
trade growth averaged 8.2% per year during 1997-2003.
Export market structure
“Considering each market in the region of Malaysia, the Philippines,
Singapore and Thailand are Vietnam's largest export markets within ASEAN,
accounting for more than 70% of Vietnam's total exports to the ASEAN region. In
particular, Vietnam's export turnover to Singapore is the largest in this period.
Structure of export
In this period, the main export products of Vietnam are raw, unprocessed
goods such as food, foodstuff, raw materials, fuel, oil and grease ...
(accounting for about 2/3 of export goods. Vietnam's exports to ASEAN,
processed or refined goods account for only a small proportion, about one-third
of export value.
3.1.2. Factors affecting Vietnam's exports to ASEAN countries
during the period (1997-2003)
3.1.2.1. Supply side and demand for goods
3.1.2.1.1. Policies to encourage export of the State
During the period of 1997-2003, although the economy still faced many
difficulties, the mechanism and policies to encourage exports contributed
significantly to the increase of Vietnam's export turnover to ASEAN market.
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Specifically, there are policies such as: Preferential policies for exports,
Exchange rate policy, Export promotion strategy.
3.1.2.1.2. The development of domestic and ASEAN economies
Increasing domestic production creates an important premise for an
increase in export supply thereby increasing the volume of goods exported to
large markets such as ASEAN. Despite the impact of the monetary and
financial crisis in 1997, Vietnam's economic growth still reached 7.06%
(2001-2003), thereby contributing to Vietnam's exports to the region.
In 1997, Southeast Asian economies increased by an average of 4.2%
and then declined slightly to 3.6% in 1999 and 3.5% in 2001 but then
recovered to 5.4% growth. in 2003. For intra-regional trade, this period
accounted for only about 20% of the total turnover of the general sector. In the
context of intra-regional trade is still difficult, Vietnam's exports to this region
also face certain difficulties.
3.1.2.1.3. Population and culture
Vietnam's population: represents the labor factor in the exporting
country. In the period of 1997-2003, Vietnam's population growth rate
averaged about 1.41%, in 2003, the population of Vietnam hit the mark of
more than 80 million people. However, a large population, a high rate of labor
in the working age, is mainly a simple and low-skilled labor force, so the
contribution of human factors is not too large for the increase in export value.
especially those processed and manufactured.
The population of ASEAN region in this period is relatively large, in
2003 the population of ASEAN region was about 548 million, accounting for
14.2% of the Asian population and 8.6% of the world population. With the
region's large and ever-increasing population advantage during this period, the
region's demand for imports of agricultural products increased, serving as a
basis for Vietnam to boost its export turnover to this market.
3.1.2.2. Trade-attractive and trade restrictive factors
3.1.2.2.1. The level of integration of ASEAN region of Vietnam
After becoming the 7th member of ASEAN, Vietnam actively joined the
ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) and started implementing the common tariff
reduction program under AFTA from January 1, 1996 and will completed in
2006. However, in the first few years after becoming an ASEAN member, the
economic relations between Vietnam and ASEAN countries only focused on
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two forms of trade and investment, while the others Other consciousness in
recent years has been promoted.
3.1.2.2.2. Economic and trade relations between Vietnam and ASEAN
countries Bilateral cooperation on trade between Vietnam and each member of
ASEAN also has a significant impact on Vietnam's exports to each country in
the region. In particular, Singapore still emerged as Vietnam's leading trading
partner in this period.
3.1.2.2.3. Quality of export goods
In this period, Vietnam's goods exported to ASEAN market are mainly
raw goods, the proportion of raw or newly processed goods accounts for
72.48% while the proportion of processed or refined products accounts for
24.47% in 1997. In particular, agricultural products accounted for a high
proportion, typically in this period was coffee. However, the quality of
Vietnam's exports is not appreciated.
3.1.2.2.4. Tariff barriers
The period 1997-2003 was the first period of regional integration of
Vietnam so the tariff reduction was not really strong. By 2002, Vietnam had
transferred 5,550 tariff lines to the List of immediate tax cuts (IL) on a total of
about 6,400 tariff lines of the Import Tariff. The average CEPT / AFTA tax
rate of tariff lines in the IL List has been reduced to 7.3% compared to the
average MFN tax rate of 13.5%. About 760 tariff lines are in the Temporary
Exclusion List (TEL) and will be transferred to the IL List in 2003.
3.1.2.2.5. Non-tariff barriers
Trade defense lawsuits with Vietnamese goods are not much, mainly in the
Philippines market. Countries that have not yet completed their tariff reductions
are still primarily used to restrict imports. However, more non-tariff measures
will be applied in the future when countries implement their commitments to
eliminate tariff barriers.
3.1.2.2.6. Border trade between Vietnam and ASEAN’s countries
In the ASEAN region, Vietnam and Laos and Cambodia share borders,
both members of ASEAN AFTA and the common border, so Vietnam's
exports to these two countries also have specific characteristics compared to
other countries. other in the area. However, this period of border trade between
countries and Vietnam has not really developed, mainly through the main
quota road.
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3.1.2.2.7. Competitiveness of export enterprises
Competitiveness of Vietnamese enterprises is still weak compared to
enterprises of regional countries. In the first phase of ASEAN integration,
Vietnamese enterprises were quite confused and not really confident of
integration.
3.1.2.2.8. Connecting Vietnam's logistics system with other countries in
ASEAN region
The level of logistics connection between Vietnam and other countries in
the region is still weak and has not really supported much for commercial
activities in this period.
3.1.2.2.9. Comparative advantage
In the early stage of regional integration, Vietnam's exports mainly used
low-level comparative advantages, including 5 types: (i) Simple labor; (ii)
Raw materials, preliminary processing; (iii) Small and medium capital; (iv)
Appropriate technology; (v) Low purchasing power. Therefore, our export
goods are mainly in raw form, low value added, the benefits from export are
not high.
3.2. Factors affecting Vietnam's exports to ASEAN countries during 20032015
3.2.1. Situation of Vietnam's exports to ASEAN region in the period of 2003-2015
Export proportion
Vietnam's export turnover to ASEAN market still has an annual increase,
the average growth rate of export turnover in the period of 2003-2015 is
7.6% / year. ASEAN remains one of Vietnam's major export markets with a
proportion of 13-14% of the total export turnover. However, in addition to the
upward trend in export turnover, in recent years, the growth rate of export to
ASEAN market of our country is tending to slow down.
Export market structure
Regional market, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore are Vietnam's
largest export markets within ASEAN, accounting for more than 50% of
Vietnam's total exports to the ASEAN region. The remaining countries in the
region have only limited trade levels with Vietnam.
Structure of export
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The proportion of exports of raw or newly processed goods tends to
decrease rapidly, instead the proportion of processed or refined products
increases. The trend of clear export shift from raw goods to processed
products, shows that Vietnam is boosting exports of high value-added products
in recent years.
import and export activities, especially with important markets. as ASEAN
market. Policies such as preferential policies for exports, exchange rate
policies, export promotion strategies have promoted positive impacts.
3.2.2.1.2. The development of domestic and ASEAN economies
3.2.1.4. Assessment of trade concentration, competitiveness and export
similarity between Vietnam and ASEAN regional partners
3.2.1.4.1. Trade intensity index (TII)
The index (TII) of Vietnam with ASEAN market is always high, confirming
that the regional market is always a potential export market of Vietnam.
However, this index tends to decrease gradually over the years, from 3.24 in
2000 to 2.26 in 2010 and reaching 1.69 in 2015. This shows the attractiveness
of the ASEAN market. continue to decrease compared to other markets such as
the US, Japan and Korea.
3.2.1.4.2. Revealed comparative advantage (RCA)
Vietnam has a major comparative advantage in agricultural products
including food and labor-intensive goods such as textiles. Comparing
Vietnam's RCA index with 5 Southeast Asian countries including Malaysia,
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia can see Indonesia has
comparative advantages and comparative advantages similar to Vietnam.
3.2.1.4.3. Export similarity index (ESI)
Among the four countries selected for calculating the export similarity
index, Thailand and Malaysia showed relatively high ESI (about over 70),
indicating the structure of exports to the world market between Vietnam,
Thailand and Malaysia are quite similar. With the export structure having a lot
of similarities, it is clear that the issue of promoting exports within the region
will be very difficult and the competitive pressure among countries will
increase.
3.2.2. Factors affecting Vietnam's exports to ASEAN countries during 2003-
2015
3.2.2.1. Supply side and demand for goods
3.2.2.1.1. Policies to encourage export of the State
With the aim of promoting exports and deep regional integration, this is a
period of state policy that has many advantages towards the best support for
In this period, the domestic economy overcame the difficulties of the
economic crisis in 2008, the economy had significant recovery steps, Vietnam's
export growth to ASEAN over the past time has tended to slow down. ..
For the ASEAN region, in general during the period of 2003-2015,
ASEAN is an economic sector with impressive growth, with outstanding
development in this period has greatly facilitated the export of the domestic
countries. blocks in general and Vietnam's exports to the region in particular.
3.2.2.1.3 Population and culture
The population of Vietnam: in the period of 2003-2015, the period of
Vietnam entered the period of golden population structure with the advantages
of scale and the young population accounted for a high proportion. An
increase in the population increases the labor force for the economy, increases
production capacity and supplies. Labor has been a positive contributor to the
production of export supply. Therefore, in this respect, it can be seen that
population is a factor that positively affects exports.
Population of the importing country: Asean population is larger than the
population of the European community and 3rd in the world, the rapid
population growth will make the region's food import demand increase, this
will be favorable for the Vietnam's agricultural products for export if we do
well the problem of improving the quality and competitiveness of products.
3.2.2.2. Trade-attractive and trade restrictive factors
3.2.2.2.1. The level of integration of ASEAN region of Vietnam
Vietnam has been very active in implementing its signed commitments,
especially the policy of actively participating in building AEC. Men have cut
10,277 tariff lines, equivalent to 96.15% of the total number of tariff lines to
be reduced in the framework of CEPT / AFTA.
3.2.2.2.2. Economic and trade relations between Vietnam and ASEAN countries
The period of 2003-2015 marked a period of strong economic and trade relations
between Vietnam and member countries in ASEAN together with the process of
economic integration of Vietnam. This is the same period of strategic
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development of Vietnam 's economic and trade relations with ASEAN member
countries that have adjusted and raised cooperative relations to a higher, more
substantive and more effective.
3.2.2.2.3. Quality of export goods
In this period, Vietnamese products exported to ASEAN are quite
diverse, ranging from agriculture, seafood and minerals to deep-processed
products and high value-added products such as telephone and machine
groups. computers, electronic products and components. However, the quality
of export goods is still a weakness of Vietnamese exporters, exports are not
competitive enough to penetrate into potential markets and have higher
requirements. like Singapore, Thailand ...
3.2.2.2.4. Tariff barriers
In this period, in addition to the reduction of tariffs under the CEPT /
AFTA tax reduction program, a series of tax reduction commitments of
Vietnam are also implemented within the framework of the expanded
cooperation of ASEAN +, a series of commitments to Vietnam Men take
seriously. The removal of tariff barriers is expected to bring many positive
impacts on Vietnam's exports to the region. However, since we have not taken
full advantage of these advantages, the benefits from tariff reduction are not
much.
3.2.2.2.5. Non-tariff barriers
Compared to the previous period, Vietnam's exports faced more trade
defense lawsuits in this period, and the lawsuits focused mainly on Vietnam's
main export products and strong points. . This shows that non-tariff barriers are
favored by countries and territories as well as increasingly applied in the context
of global free trade, because this is a more effective solution to prevent imports.
tariff barriers.
3.2.2.2.6. Border trade between Vietnam and ASEAN’s countries
At this stage, border trade between Vietnam and neighboring countries
has prospered. The Government of Vietnam and other countries have made
great efforts in promoting cross-border trade through support for the two
countries' businesses to promote trade.
3.2.2.2.7. Competitiveness of export enterprises
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Along with the trend of deep integration of Vietnam, many businesses
have had innovations, many new machinery and equipment and technology
have been transferred from industrialized countries. But the speed of
technological and equipment innovation is still slow, uneven and not yet a
clear development orientation.
3.2.2.2.8. Connecting Vietnam's logistics system with other countries in
ASEAN region
In Vietnam, the efficiency of logistics services exploitation is low and
the cost is high (logistics cost compared to Vietnam's GDP is 25%, higher than
Thailand 6%, Malaysia 12%). High logistics costs are an important reason to
reduce the competitiveness and business efficiency of businesses, in particular
and hinder Vietnam's economic growth in general.
3.2.2.2.9. Vietnam's participation in GVCs
Vietnam in the past years along with the deep integration process has
also been very active and actively participated in regional and global
production networks, especially those with strong strengths and fields.
However, taking part in regional production networks, Vietnam's industries
(cars, textiles and electronics) have only recently developed in the downstream
area. Therefore, if viewed from the perspective of the production network, the
production network has not contributed much to the regional integration
process of Vietnam in the past and has not really become a positive factor to
help push strong export of Vietnam.
3.2.2.2.10. Comparative advantage
This period marked a clear shift in the structure of Vietnam's exports to
the ASEAN region in the direction of relying on exploiting the "dynamic"
competitive advantage to improve productivity, quality and efficiency. export
on the basis of promoting institutional reforms, using advanced technologies,
improving the quality of human resources, building modern and synchronous
infrastructure. However, the shift in Vietnam's comparative advantage is still
slow, failing to meet the current strong development trend.
3.3. Quantitative analysis of some factors affecting Vietnam's exports to
ASEAN countries
Results of model estimation
Source:Author’scalculation
Notes:*,**,***:pvaluelowerthan10%,5%,1%
zstatisticvalue
1 57 .21 6 .9 5194.0 45 41 .49340 .19 26 0 .8 660 Wald ch i2
(-3.31 )(-4.07 )(-2 .8 7)(-3 .9 8)(-3.89 )(-4.53 )
Constant-1433.2 64***-2368.2 18***-1351.77***-19 96.8 91***-2 200.254***-202 0.58 3***
533***BORDER9.11.5 95***10.469***22.522***18.854***10.580***
23)(7.(6.56)(7.30)(14.7 5)(10.98)(7.81)
(-0.05 )(0.41 )(-0 .10)(-0 .7 1 )(-0 .7 7)(-0.95 )
(-0.81 )(0.84 )(-1 .22)(-0 .2 3 )(-0 .7 9)(-0.31 )
ATIGA-0 .0 50 .53 0 -0.10 7 -0.79 7-0 .96 7-0 .941
(-4.37 )(-1.92 )(-3 .2 9)(-4 .5 6)(-5.51 )(-6.18 )
AFTA-0 .7 791 .0 88 -1 .2 75 -0 .2 53 -0 .9 93-0.3 03
-0.956*** -0.846*** lnER
-0.703***
-0.477***
-0.343*
-0.582***
(-0.52 )(-2 .02 )(-2 .2 3 )(-1.5 1)(3 .65)(-0.39 )
ijt
9 4)(0.(-0.78 )(0 .2 6)(-1.08 )(2.83 )(5 .30 )--
-0.276lnDIS
3.315***
-1.216
-1.692**
-1.891**
-0.363
ij
19)(3.(3.99)(2.76)(3.85)(3.56)(4.30)
1.314***lnPOP
0.889***
-0.303
-0.069
-0.253
0.226
jt
(7.(8.04)(9.43)(16.27)(6.53)(3.34)19)
12.054*** 11.153***lnPOP
12.088***
8.809***
14.247***
597***8.
(-2.80 )(-3.74 )(-2 .5 4)(-4 .2 6)(-2.21 )(-2.92 )
lnGDPit-7.088***-12.726***- 6.987**-12.5 12***-7.308**-7.595***
1.067***lnGDP
2.575***
5.698***
3.102***
it
3.263***
174***2.
jt
Va ria bleSITC0SITC1SITC2SITC3SITC4 SITC5
Table3.18.Estimationresult(REM)
Primaryproductgroup
17
Manufactured product group
SITC6
SITC7
SITC8
-5.449**
-4.535*
-7.854***
(-2.39)
(-1.90)
(-3.53)
1.474***
2.357***
919***1.
(5.42)
(8.28)
(7.23)
8.872***
6.584**
201***10.
(3.50)
(2.55)
53)(4.
0.666***
0.489**
0.521**
(3.07)
(2.16)
46)(2.
-1.196*
-2.305***
-1.242**
(-1.91)
(-3.51)
(-2.03)
-0.621***
-0.751***
-0.735***
(-5.18)
(-5.99)
(-6.28)
-0.624
-0.511
-1.393*
(-0.72)
(-0.56)
(-1.64)
-0.441
-0.337
-0.735
(-0.51)
(-0.37)
(-0.86)
8.954***
9.162***
956***9.
(7.55)
(7.38)
60)(8.
-1438.329*** -1102.932*** -1794.918***
(-3.69)
(-2.70)
(-4.71)
236.85
265.78
232.89
18
Analysis of estimation results
From the estimation model results by GLS method, it can be seen:
Vietnam's GDPit has a negative impact on Vietnam's export turnover to
ASEAN countries in general and the export turnover of each commodity group
in particular. Considering each commodity group, both raw and processed
products show negative (negative) impact of this factor on the export of these
groups. In particular, the group of raw goods is more affected than the
processed products.
The GDPjt variable represents the GDP of the importing country that has
a positive impact on Vietnam's exports. For specific product groups, positive
impacts are also present in all product groups. In the group of raw goods, SITC
3 and SITC 1 are the two groups most affected, while in the group of
processed products, SITC 7 is strongly affected.
The population of Vietnam (POPit) has a positive and statistically
significant coefficient of less than 5%, which means that Vietnam's population
has a positive impact on Vietnam's exports. In terms of goods, the coefficient
of the Vietnamese population variable (POPit) also has a positive sign in both
the raw and processed commodity groups, which are highly significant in most
groups.
The population of the importing country (POPjt) has a positive and
statistically significant coefficient of less than 1%, which means that the
population of the importing country has a positive impact on Vietnam's
exports. Considering each commodity group, the positive coefficient is also
shown in the group of raw goods (except SICT 1, SITC 2, SITC 3 - no
statistical significance) and the group of processed goods with a statistically
significant level below 1% and less than 5%.
The geographical distance (DIS) represents the cost of commercial
transactions between Vietnam and partner countries, the results show that the
coefficient of this variable is negative in all product groups. This is appropriate
in theory and practice, because the bigger the distance, the more transportation
costs and barriers such as language and culture are, the more limited the
volume of trade goods is exchanged. In the context of Vietnam's logistics is
weak, the negative impact of this factor is even more obvious.
19
20
The exchange rate variable (ERijt) left a negative impact on Vietnam's
export turnover to the region but was not statistically significant. In commodity
groups, this negative impact is also evident in all groups and is statistically
significant.
The AFTA dummy represents the accession to the ASEAN Free Trade
Area of Vietnam as well as the partner countries, but this variable is not
statistically significant in the model and carries a negative sign that this
variable affects pepper. extreme to the export of Vietnam.
The ATIGA variable has negative results when the coefficient is
negative and not statistically significant. Like the AFTA variable, the ATIGA
variable shows an inverse correlation with the export volume in all commodity
groups except SITC 1.
The dummy variable of the partner country that shares a border with
Vietnam (BORDER) is statistically significant (less than 1%) and positive.
This is basically true both in theory and in practice.
CHAPTER 4
4.1.4. Prospects to boost Vietnam's exports to the ASEAN region
and opportunities and challenges in the coming period
4.1.4.1. Prospects to boost Vietnam's exports to ASEAN region
IMPLICATIONS POLICY TO PROMOTE EXPORT OF VIETNAMESE
− The difference in development level with ASEAN-6 countries makes
Vietnam also subject to significant competition pressure
− Low competitiveness in both national and corporate aspects
− Quality, low labor productivity
GOODS TO ASEAN COUNTRIES
4.1. New regional integration context and issues raised with Vietnam's
export of goods to ASEAN
4.1.1. New context of the world and the region
The situation of the world and the region is moving deeply, turning with
many complicated developments. This sets out for countries in the region what
to do, including: (i) Select models that are consistent with the AEC game rules
and the global economy; (ii) Determine advantages in economic assignment
and regional production networks (supply chain or value chain); (iii) Develop
economic measures and reform policies to gain advantages in the next AEC.
4.1.2. Prospects of ASEAN Economic Community until 2025
By 2025, the ASEAN Community will still be the highest model of Southeast
Asian cooperation. This sets out for countries in the region what to do, including: (i)
Select models that are consistent with the AEC game rules and the global economy;
(ii)Determine advantages in economic assignment and regional production
networks (supply chain or value chain); (iii) Develop economic measures and
reform policies to gain advantages in the next AEC.
Participating in ASEAN helps Vietnam expand and strengthen relations with
non-ASEAN partners, especially in large countries, as well as more deeply
participate in international cooperation frameworks or deeper regional links.
thereby contributing to enhancing Vietnam's international role and position.
4.1.4.2. Opportunities and challenges
− Opportunities to boost exports from trade agreements signed in the
ASEAN Community
− Opportunities for domestic enterprises to access to a large common market,
access to modern advanced science and technology, new business methods,
help expand the market, promote business brands industry and products
− Opportunity to welcome new investment waves shifting the ongoing
production value chains
4.1.4.3. Challenges
− The high similarity in the structure of export goods between Vietnam and ASEAN
countries has made it difficult to expand the intra-regional market as well as the
pressure to compete with other countries outside the block market.
− The weakness of the domestic market economic institution system has caused
obstacles in regional integration
4.2. Goals and orientations to promote Vietnam's export of goods to
ASEAN region
4.2.1. Promoting Vietnam's export of goods to ASEAN market
− Always consider ASEAN as an important market of Vietnam and
integrate into the ASEAN region as a right and long-term strategy:
− Actively grasp and effectively utilize opportunities from regional
integration
− Promoting the activeness and flexibility of economic sectors in regional
integration
21
22
− Shifting the structure of export goods in a diversified way, improving
quality and building a brand name for Vietnamese goods in the regional
market.
4.2.2. Strategy of exporting goods of Vietnam to ASEAN
Firstly, expanding regional markets and improving export sustainability
and efficiency in the context of AEC integration
Secondly, improve the competitiveness of Vietnamese exporters in trade
activities in the ASEAN market
Thirdly, the restructuring of export goods is logically in a modern way
Fourthly, orienting the development of export markets in the region
according to groups, exploiting the market based on the characteristics of each
specific group
4.3.2.1. Group of solutions to promote positive factors
4.3. Solutions to boost Vietnam's export of goods in the context of AEC
integration on the basis of studying the influencing factors
4.3.1. Group of solutions to promote demand and supply of goods
4.3.2.1.3. Developing border trade with neighboring countries
4.3.1.1. Create a domestic production development environment, expand export
Secondly, it is necessary to focus on solutions to solve difficulties and
obstacles in investment capital for upgrading and perfecting commercial
infrastructure in border areas in general and border-gate areas in particular;
markets to regional countries
For the domestic economy: The Government needs to have solutions to
institutional reforms in the country to facilitate domestic production to develop.
For ASEAN region, it is necessary to adjust the strategy suitable for each
specific market.
4.3.1.2. Improve the efficiency of state export support policies Import-export
support tax: (i) Continue to amend and supplement the
regulations on tax support for export enterprises; (ii) Continue to amend and
supplement relevant legal provisions, contributing to encouraging the
development and protection of domestic production and business; (iii)
Complete the legal system fully, synchronously, consistent with relevant laws;
Credit policy to support export: (i) Focus on financing high value-added
exports; (ii) Expanding financing of export production activities in value
chains; (iii) Diversify forms of export financing.
Export promotion: focus on export promotion in the coming time, human
resources for this work should be improved both in quantity and quality.
4.3.2. Group of solutions to promote the impact of positive factors
and limit the impact of factors hindering exports
4.3.2.1.1. Continue to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of economic
integration
First, strengthening research and forecasting issues of regional economic
integration
Secondly, effectively implement the international economic integration
commitments
4.3.2.1.2. Develop export strategies for each specific market in the ASEAN
region
For ASEAN-6 countries, Vietnam needs to effectively exploit the role and
position of these countries in the country's economic development strategy, despite
Vietnam's difficulties in trade relations with countries. ASEAN-6 is not small.
First, promote cooperation with bordering countries to further improve
mechanisms and policies for border trade development.
Thirdly, adjusting the level of funding for border trade promotion
activities in border areas, focusing on supporting traders, developing business
methods and key goods;
4.3.2.2. Solutions to limit the impact of factors hindering exports
4.3.2.2.1. Improve the quality of exports and competitiveness of export
enterprises
Vietnam needs to produce additional items and select different products
to implement trade promotion solutions. Vietnamese enterprises, in the short
term, need to boost exports to ASEAN, which account for a large proportion
of export turnover such as: phones and accessories; computers, electronic
products and components; rice; ...
4.3.2.2.2. Solution to overcome tariff and non-tariff barriers
Firstly, invest, innovate technology, develop modern production lines,
improve the competitiveness of enterprises when exporting goods.
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24
Secondly, developing different types of enterprises, especially large-scale
enterprises, aims to enhance competitiveness and ability to meet the
requirements of the import market.
4.4.2. For trade promotion organizations, industry associations
and business associations
Enhance coordination with state management agencies in providing and
exchanging regular information on the development of science
4.4.3. For Enterprises
Third, enhance market research activities and promote trade promotion
activities, improve the effectiveness of the trade representative system.
Fourthly, focus on building and developing brands and models, setting
the motto to improve product quality first.
4.3.2.2.3. Development of infrastructure and logistics system for export
(i) Completing the policy of logistics law
(ii) Complete logistics infrastructure
(iii) Improve enterprise capacity and quality of logistics services
(iv) Develop logistics service market
4.3.2.2.4. Group of solutions for Vietnam to integrate further through
participating in regional production networks
First, awareness of regional production networks should be raised.
Secondly, build an overall strategy of participating in Vietnamese
manufacturing industry networks
Thirdly, there should be effective solutions to attract investment capital,
especially the attraction of foreign investment in supporting industries for key
industries.
Fourth, build a complete industrial infrastructure system
4.3.2.2.5. Shift export structure, promote comparative advantages in export
First, stop exporting products in the form of raw materials
Secondly, restrict export processing activities to engage more deeply in
the world production chain
Third, shift comparative advantage to high-end manufactured
products Fourth, further diversity of comparative advantage structure
4.4. Recommendations
4.4.1. For Ministries
It is necessary to strengthen the close cooperation between ministries
(Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural
Development, Ministry of Finance, ...) in directing production, export and
import of each item specific goods.
CONCLUSION
The research and assessment of the situation and clarification of the
influencing factors from which to propose some solutions to promote the
export of goods of Vietnam to ASEAN countries have important significance
in the whole aspect. essays and practices for Vietnam. Accordingly, the study
has focused on solving some of the following basic issues:
Firstly, the thesis has reviewed many research works in the world and in
the country to consider the factors affecting the export of goods in two aspects:
research methods and research results. Thereby, point out the basic factors
affecting the export of goods that previous studies have mentioned and also
indicate the gap to continue research.
Second, systematize and clarify more theoretical issues about exports.
Through theoretical analysis, the thesis shows the trend of each factor to
export goods.
Fourthly, the use of gravity model has pointed out the factors affecting
the export of goods in Vietnam, including the positive impact factors, the
negative impact factors and the results also. shows that the trend of the factors
is quite consistent with the expectations that the hypotheses have.
Fifth, on the basis of analyzing the context of regional integration in the
context of the implementation of AEC Economic Council, the objectives and
export orientation of Vietnam in the coming period combined with the
research results and essays. propose different solutions to boost Vietnam's
export of goods to ASEAN market in the coming period.
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