Tài liệu Báo cáo về tiềm năng thị trường bất động sản việt nam rediscovering vietnam’s real estate potential

REDISCOVERING VIETNAM’S REAL ESTATE POTENTIAL Presented by: Marc Townsend – Managing Director 1st March, 2007 Renaissance Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia WHAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE PROPERTY MARKET SINCE 2003? •Limited capital markets •An emerging condo market in Hanoi and HCMC • Conspicuous consumption • Ability to borrow from local banks at 10-11% per annum • Consistently rising GDP and FDI • China + 1, APRC, the Stock Market and entry to WTO has put Vietnam on the radar screen, coupled with the ML report in Feb and the Euro Money Conference in Mar 2006 • Saturation in other South East Asian markets Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 2 MAP OF VIETNAM Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 3 HO CHI MINH CITY Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 4 VIETNAM TODAY • No Starbucks and No MacDonalds • World leaders in pepper, coffee, cashew, shoes, fish/prawns, oil & gas exports • No shortage of land, just good sites • “If you build it, they will come” still exists but may not last much longer • Many similarities to China in the early 90s in terms of work ethic, chaos on the streets, migration of work force and market driven decisions • Traffic, complete absence of infrastructure, MRT/MTR, bridges and tunnels Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 5 HCMC OFFICE MARKET HCMC Prime Office Stock End of Q1.2007 sqm 350,000 300,000 250,000 Office Stock at the beginning of the quarter 1/ 07 Q 4/ 06 Q 3/ 06 Q 2/ 06 Q 1/ 06 Q 4/ 05 Q 3/ 05 Q 2/ 05 Q 1/ 05 Q 4/ 04 Q 3/ 04 Q 2/ 04 Q Q 1/ 04 200,000 New supply during the quarter Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 6 HCMC OFFICE MARKET Prime Office Rental Index 160 Index (Q1 1998 = 100) 140 US-VN Bilateral Trade Agreement 120 100 80 60 40 And the upward trend will continue due to: • Growing demand • Delays in new supply 20 Q1 98 Q2 98 Q3 98 Q4 98 Q1 99 Q2 99 Q3 99 Q4 99 Q1 00 Q2 00 Q3 00 Q4 00 Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 02 Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1.07 0 Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 7 Vimedimex Golden Tower Sacombank 9 DTH Major Buildings Existing - Future PetroVietnam Saigon Trade Center EVN Saigon Tower Centec Gemadept Pacific Place Sailing Tower Asiana Plaza Diamond Plaza Metropolitan Bao Viet Vietcombank Me Linh Point Saigon Center Times Square Sun Wah CB Richard Ellis | Page 8 VPBank Financial Tower Client Logo Goes Here M&C Tower HCMC OFFICE MARKET SOME OF THE NEW OFFICE BUILDINGS COMPLETED IN Q1. 2007 Opera View, Dist. 1 Lancaster, Dist. 1 Rosaco, Dist. 1 Estimated Total Supply in Q1. 2007: 47,843 sqm Petro Vietnam, Dist. 1 CB Richard Ellis | Page 9 E – Town 2, Tan Binh District Client Logo Goes Here HCMC OFFICE MARKET s qm Take up and vacancy rate of HCMC office buildings % 18,000 16,000 8.0% 14,000 12,000 10,000 6.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 8,000 6,000 4,000 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2,000 - 0.0% Q1.04 Q2.04 Q3.04 Q4.04 Q1.05 Q2.05 Q3.05 Q4.05 Q1.06 Q2.06 Q3.06 Q4.06 Take-up (Sqm) Vacancy Rate (%) Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 10 HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates Rental growth of Grade A 2006 - 2007 unit: US$ growth rate 28% 23 29.5 Q1 - 2006 $23.00 Q1 - 2007 $29.50 Increase of 28% Occupancy 100% Q1/2006 Q1/2007 *Note: Rents excluding S. C and VAT Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 11 HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates Rental Growth of Grade B 2006 - 2007 unit:US$ growth rate 26% 21 26.5 Q1 - 2006 $21.00 Q1 - 2007 $26.50 Increase of 26% Occupancy 99% Q1/2006 Q1/2007 * Note: rents excluding S.C and VAT Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 12 HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates Rental Growth of Grade C 2006 - 2007 Q1 - 2007 $20.50 growth rate 17% unit: US$ 17.5 Q1 - 2006 $17.50 20.5 Increase of 17% Occupancy 95% Q1/2006 Q1/2007 * Note: rents excluding S.C and VAT Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 13 HCMC OFFICE MARKET Market Outlook in 2007: 9 Limited grade A office space still remains. 9 Some new supply of Grade B office space expected to come on line during 2007. Expected year of completion Supply of new grade Expected A, B & C supply buildings (sqm) 2007 27 158,798 2008 18 180,657 2009 15 187,824 9 Grade A office rental rates reflects upward momentum and growing demand vis-à-vis tight supply 2010 12 273,146 9 Vacancy rate remains low, grade A (0%) and B (<1%) TOTAL 72 800,425 9Factors driving demand: Strong economic growth, FDI growth, WTO access, new multi-national companies, expansion of existing multi-national companies, Vietnam companies upgrading, safety & quality Issues Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 14 HCMC OFFICE MARKET HCMC MAJOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION OFFICE DEVELOPMENTS IN Q1&Q2/07 Manulife - Dist. 7 6,000 Q 2 .2 0 0 7 Cetpa - Tan Binh 11,945 N'Orch - Dist. 1 6,000 ITAXA, Dist. 3 7,600 E-Star, Dist. 3 3,960 Vimedimex - Dist. 1 10,780 Q 1 .2 0 0 7 Petro VN, Dist. 1 10,143 Lancaster 1,600 E-Town 2 - Tan Binh 27,000 Rosaco Tower - Dist. 1 8,000 Opera View - Dist. 1 sqm 3,100 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 (Source: CBRE) Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 15 HCMC OFFICE MARKET EX PECTED FUTUR E SUPPLY O FFI CE SPACE (2 0 0 7 - 2 0 1 0 ) (u n it s q m ) 273,146 158,798 Exp ect ed co mp l et i o n i n 2007 2007 Rosaco Tower 180,657 187,824 Exp ect ed co mp l et i o n i n 2008 Exp ect ed co mp l et i o n i n 2009 2008 Petro VN VP Bank Tower Sacom Bank 2009 Centec Asiana Plaza Exp ect ed co mp l et i o n i n 2010 2010 Financial Tower Vietcombank Tower Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 16 THE MARKET’S TIMING – LARGER BUILDINGS 2009 2008 2010 Bao Viet 20,000 sqm (owner occupied) Centec 25,000 sqm VPBank 20,000 sqm (12,000 sqm for lease) Asiana Plaza 32,000 sqm HCMC Power Head Office 20,000 sqm (10,000 sqm for lease) Gemadept 16,500 sqm (10,000 sqm for lease) 76,500 sqm (32,000 sqm for lease) CB Richard Ellis | Page 17 A&B 25,000 sqm 2010 Vietcombank 77,000 sqm M&C Tower 35,000 sqm Financial Tower 100,000 sqm 2011 Times Square 31,000 sqm 2010 113,000 sqm 212,000 sqm Client Logo Goes Here RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC Number of Condos and Projects launched year-by-year 12,000 50 40 9,000 6,000 20 3,000 0 Uni ts P r oj e ct s P ro j ects Condos 30 10 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 648 0 0 0 150 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 124 1,234 3,418 7,644 10,37 11,47 7,270 1 3 16 27 42 33 9 Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 18 MAP OF CONDO PROJECTS IN HCMC Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 19 RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC Completed Condominium Units year-by-year 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1999 2003 2006 Q1/07 Over U S$2, 000 141 252 U S$1, 501 - U S$2, 000 526 U S$1, 001 - U S$1, 500 U S$600 - U S$1, 000 Less U S$600 798 124 2004 2005 97 66 270 1, 110 1, 965 1, 330 552 1, 594 881 405 Client Logo Goes Here CB Richard Ellis | Page 20