Tài liệu The 2000-2005 world outlook for household textiles, soft furnishings (strategic planning series)

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The 2000-2005 World Outlook for Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings www.icongroupedition.com Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. ii COPYRIGHT NOTICE ISBN: 0-7576-5275-1 All of Icon Group Ltd. publications are copyrighted. Copying our publications in whole or in part, for whatever reason, is a violation of copyrights laws and can lead to penalties and fines. Should you want to copy tables, graphs or other materials from our publications, please contact us to request permission. Icon Group Ltd. often grants permission for very limited reproduction of our publications for internal use, press releases, and academic research. Such reproduction requires, however, confirmed permission from Icon Group Ltd. Please read the full copyright notice, disclaimer, and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Neither Icon Group Ltd. nor its employees can be held accountable for the use and subsequent actions of the user of the information provided in this publication. Great efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data, but we can not guarantee, given the volume of information, accuracy. Since the information given in this report is forward-looking, the reader should read the disclaimer statement and user agreement provisions at the end of this report. www.icongroupedition.com Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. iii About Icon Group Ltd. Icon Group Ltd.’s primary mission is to assist managers with their international information needs using forwardlooking economic analysis. Icon Group has field offices in San Diego, Paris, Singapore, Hong Kong and Lomé, Togo (West Africa). Icon Group has published hundreds of multi-client databases, and global/regional market data, industry and country publications. Global/Regional Management Studies. Summarizing over 210 countries, management studies are generally organized into regional volumes and cover key management functions. 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Contents iv Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 1.2 1.3 2 Overview Market Potential Estimation Methodology The Worldwide Market Potential for Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings AFRICA: HOUSEHOLD TEXTILES, SOFT FURNISHINGS 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.13 2.14 2.15 2.16 2.17 2.18 2.19 2.20 2.21 2.22 2.23 2.24 2.25 2.26 2.27 2.28 2.29 2.30 2.31 2.32 2.33 2.34 2.35 2.36 2.37 10 Executive Summary Algeria Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Central African Republic Chad Comoros Congo (formerly Zaire) Djibouti Egypt Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Ivory coast Kenya Lesotho Liberia Libya Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria www.icongroupedition.com 10 10 12 14 14 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 33 Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Contents 2.38 2.39 2.40 2.41 2.42 2.43 2.44 2.45 2.46 2.47 2.48 2.49 2.50 2.51 2.52 2.53 3 Republic of Congo Rwanda Sao Tome E Principe Senegal Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania The Gambia Togo Tunisia Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe ASIA: HOUSEHOLD TEXTILES, SOFT FURNISHINGS 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.10 3.11 3.12 3.13 3.14 3.15 3.16 3.17 3.18 3.19 3.20 3.21 3.22 3.23 3.24 3.25 3.26 3.27 Executive Summary Bangladesh Bhutan Brunei Burma Cambodia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Laos Macau Malaysia Maldives Mongolia Nepal North Korea Papua New Guinea Philippines Seychelles Singapore South Korea Sri Lanka Taiwan Thailand Vietnam www.icongroupedition.com v 34 34 35 35 36 36 37 37 38 38 39 39 40 40 41 41 42 42 44 44 45 45 46 46 47 47 48 48 49 49 50 50 51 51 52 52 53 53 54 54 55 55 56 56 Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Contents 4 EUROPE: HOUSEHOLD TEXTILES, SOFT FURNISHINGS 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14 4.15 4.16 4.17 4.18 4.19 4.20 4.21 4.22 4.23 4.24 4.25 4.26 4.27 4.28 4.29 4.30 4.31 4.32 4.33 4.34 4.35 4.36 4.37 4.38 4.39 4.40 4.41 4.42 4.43 Executive Summary Albania Andorra Austria Belarus Belgium Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Georgia Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Kazakhstan Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Macedonia Malta Moldova Monaco Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia Serbia and Montenegro Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland www.icongroupedition.com vi 57 57 59 59 60 60 61 61 62 62 63 63 64 64 65 65 66 66 67 67 68 68 69 69 70 70 71 71 72 72 73 73 74 74 75 75 76 76 77 77 78 78 79 79 Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Contents 4.44 4.45 5 80 80 LATIN AMERICA: HOUSEHOLD TEXTILES, SOFT FURNISHINGS 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11 5.12 5.13 5.14 5.15 5.16 5.17 5.18 5.19 5.20 5.21 6 Ukraine United Kingdom 81 Executive Summary Argentina Belize Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Guyana Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Suriname Uruguay Venezuela 81 83 83 84 84 85 85 86 86 87 87 88 88 89 89 90 90 91 91 92 92 NORTH AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN: HOUSEHOLD TEXTILES, SOFT FURNISHINGS 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.10 6.11 6.12 6.13 6.14 6.15 6.16 6.17 Executive Summary Antigua and Barbuda Bahamas Barbados Bermuda Canada Cuba Dominica Dominican Republic Grenada Haiti Jamaica Martinique Netherlands Antilles St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines www.icongroupedition.com vii 93 93 95 95 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 100 100 101 101 102 102 Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Contents 6.18 6.19 7 104 Executive Summary American Samoa Australia Fiji Kiribati Marshall Islands Micronesia Federation Nauru New Zealand Palau Solomon Islands Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu 104 105 106 106 107 107 108 108 109 109 110 110 111 111 THE MIDDLE EAST: HOUSEHOLD TEXTILES, SOFT FURNISHINGS 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.10 8.11 8.12 8.13 8.14 8.15 8.16 8.17 8.18 8.19 8.20 8.21 8.22 8.23 9 103 103 OCEANA: HOUSEHOLD TEXTILES, SOFT FURNISHINGS 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.10 7.11 7.12 7.13 7.14 8 Trinidad and Tobago United States Executive Summary Afghanistan Armenia Azerbaijan Bahrain Iran Iraq Israel Jordan Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Lebanon Oman Pakistan Qatar Saudi Arabia Syrian Arab Republic Tajikistan Turkey Turkmenistan United Arab Emirates Uzbekistan Yemen Disclaimers & Safe Harbor www.icongroupedition.com 112 112 114 114 115 115 116 116 117 117 118 118 119 119 120 120 121 121 122 122 123 123 124 124 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 9.1 viii 125 125 Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Contents 9.2 Icon Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions www.icongroupedition.com ix 126 Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings 10 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 OVERVIEW The liberalization of markets has lead to record levels of international investments. Icon Group’s primary mission is to assist international managers to better plan and implement strategies in a global economy. It does so by providing various specialized industry reports, databases, publications and services to its clients. This report is one of many published by Icon Group Ltd. to assist executives and planners in monitoring and analyzing world markets. In addition to industry-specific studies, Icon Group Ltd.’s reports cover human resources management, export strategies, investment strategies, entry & marketing strategies, political and economic risk assessments and legal trends (e.g., intellectual property, licensing, and corruption). This report covers the world outlook for household textiles, soft furnishings across 235 countries. For each year reported, the estimates are given for the latent demand for the country in question. Icon Group uses a number of proprietary econometric models which project economic changes within each country and across countries. From there, market potential estimates are created. The units used in this report are: million US $. As shown in the report, the market potential for household textiles, soft furnishings is expected to reach $97,119.11 million by 2005. The distribution of the world market, however, will not be evenly distributed across regions. Europe will be the largest market with $33,620.86 million or 34.62 percent, followed by North America & the Caribbean with $24,580.60 million or 25.31 percent, and then Asia with $24,235.84 million or 24.95 percent of the world market. In essence, if a firm targets these top 3 regions, they cover come 84.88 percent of the world wide demand for household textiles, soft furnishings. 1.2 MARKET POTENTIAL ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY Icon Group uses a number of methodologies to create market potential estimates for products and services across markets, whether at the level of a region, country, or city. In this report, two modelling approaches are used. The first involves modelling the economic fundamentals of each market over time. This is based on standard models of economic growth (e.g. focussing on growth of income, or gross domestic product per capita). The second approach is more subtle. The second approach involves collecting information on the market size or market potential for the particular product or service in question, typically in national currency, and translating these into a common currency. Icon Group uses the U.S. dollar as its common currency across markets. For some categories and markets, basic demand indicators are reported in national statistics, as is mostly the case for the United States and other developed markets. In most of the world’s 230 countries, however, few statistics are available. For these, Icon Group uses www.icongroupedition.com Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings 11 econometric models to estimate these markets, and forecast these over time. As true for all forward-looking economic forecasts, certain critical assumptions must be made. Two types of assumptions are made for the models used in this report. The first type covers the socioeconomic and global environment. In essence, Icon Group assumes that dynamics seen in the past are likely to continue in the future, without major discontinuous changes. For example, if a city, country or region has not seen civil strife, major recessions, or substantial foreign exchange or currency changes, this is assumed to be the case over the forecast period. Likewise, the worldwide demand is foreseen to progress in a fashion similar to that seen in historical figures, based on aggregated data collected at the national level. The extent to which these assumptions are violated in the future will surely affect the accuracy of the forecasts presented here. The second type of assumption is of greater importance, especially for those markets where insufficient local information is reported in the public domain, or in markets where there is higher uncertainty. Here, we use cross-country econometric models of demand, often called a crosssectional pooled time series models with varying parameters. In simple terms, we assume an underlying consumption function that is allowed to vary over time and across geographic markets. Economists have long proposed various consumption functions. These include John Maynard Keynes, Simon Kuznets, Irving Fisher, Franco Modigliani, Albert Ando, Richard Brumberg, and Milton Friedman. Across these, and other authors, the consumption of a product (as opposed to the amount produced) is foreseen to vary depending on a number of local factors and the time frame that one considers (short-, medium- and long-run). In general, the variance of the market potential across markets is foreseen to be a function of variances in income, wealth, interest rates, expected future income, and a variety of exogenous factors, including geography and culture. Icon Group forecasts primarily rely on non-cultural economic factors in modelling cross-market demand, for a given product or service. We also model the market potential using a consumption function which assumes a constant average propensity to consume in the long run (i.e. as incomes rise, average consumption rates do not fall, as earlier argued by Keynes). Once the cross-market model of demand is specified, it is combined with the local economic models described above. As in all econometric exercises, the lack of local market figures in the public domain results in estimation errors. Furthermore, many intervening factors may arise over time that can materially affect the accuracy of the forecasts, including changes in local economic conditions, changes in political regimes, improvements in primary data, and currency fluctuations, among other factors. As the estimates and forecasts reported here are forwardlooking and subject to assumption-induced errors, you are asked to read the caveats and disclaimers at the end of this report. www.icongroupedition.com Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings 12 1.3 THE WORLDWIDE MARKET POTENTIAL FOR HOUSEHOLD TEXTILES, SOFT FURNISHINGS Worldwide Market Potential for Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings (million US $): 2000 Region Latent Demand million US $ % of Globe _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Europe North America & the Caribbean Asia Oceana Latin America Middle East Africa Total 27,213 22,265 15,933 3,352 3,257 2,759 1,965 76,745 35.5 29.0 20.8 4.4 4.2 3.6 2.6 100.0 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Icon Group Ltd., copyright 2000, www.icongroupedition.com Worldwide Market Potential for Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings (million US $): 2000 North America & the Caribbean Asia Oceana Other Europe www.icongroupedition.com Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings 13 World Market for Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings: 1995 - 2005 Year World Market million US $ 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 74,380.20 75,149.60 72,327.22 71,198.35 73,670.30 76,886.88 80,379.05 84,130.16 88,154.48 92,475.55 97,119.11 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Icon Group Ltd., copyright 2000, www.icongroupedition.com www.icongroupedition.com Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings 14 2 AFRICA: HOUSEHOLD TEXTILES, SOFT FURNISHINGS 2.1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Market Potential for Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings in Africa (million US $): 2000 Country Latent Demand million US $ % of Africa _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ South Africa Nigeria Algeria Libya Morocco Egypt Tunisia Cameroon Sudan Ivory coast Angola Kenya Congo (formerly Zaire) Tanzania Ghana Ethiopia Zimbabwe Senegal Uganda Gabon Botswana Zambia Burkina Faso Madagascar Guinea Other Total 762 171 134 122 89 73 50 49 39 37 34 34 33 25 24 23 22 21 21 19 13 13 11 11 10 124 1,965 38.51% 8.65% 6.76% 6.15% 4.48% 3.70% 2.54% 2.47% 1.98% 1.87% 1.73% 1.72% 1.69% 1.24% 1.20% 1.16% 1.13% 1.07% 1.04% 0.96% 0.66% 0.63% 0.58% 0.55% 0.52% 6.93% 100.00% _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Icon Group Ltd., copyright 2000, www.icongroupedition.com www.icongroupedition.com Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings 15 Market Potential for Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings in Africa (million US $): 2000 Algeria Libya Nigeria South Africa Other The Market for Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings in Africa: 1995 - 2005 Year million US $ % of Globe 1,915.18 1,972.83 1,975.45 1,855.58 1,897.75 1,977.33 2,074.19 2,178.92 2,289.93 2,407.66 2,532.55 2.57 2.63 2.73 2.61 2.58 2.57 2.58 2.59 2.60 2.60 2.61 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Icon Group Ltd., copyright 2000, www.icongroupedition.com www.icongroupedition.com Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings 2.2 16 ALGERIA Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings (million US $): Algeria 1995 - 2005 Year Algeria % of Region % of Globe 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 97 106 113 114 122 134 146 160 175 191 209 5.07% 5.39% 5.72% 6.11% 6.45% 6.76% 7.05% 7.33% 7.63% 7.93% 8.25% 0.13% 0.14% 0.15% 0.15% 0.16% 0.17% 0.18% 0.19% 0.19% 0.20% 0.21% _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Icon Group Ltd., copyright 2000, www.icongroupedition.com 2.3 ANGOLA Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings (million US $): Angola 1995 - 2005 Year Angola % of Region % of Globe 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 35 36 34 34 34 34 35 37 38 40 41 1.81% 1.80% 1.74% 1.84% 1.80% 1.73% 1.70% 1.69% 1.67% 1.65% 1.62% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Icon Group Ltd., copyright 2000, www.icongroupedition.com www.icongroupedition.com Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings 2.4 17 BENIN Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings (million US $): Benin 1995 - 2005 Year Benin % of Region % of Globe 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 0.41% 0.40% 0.39% 0.40% 0.39% 0.37% 0.37% 0.37% 0.37% 0.37% 0.37% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Icon Group Ltd., copyright 2000, www.icongroupedition.com 2.5 BOTSWANA Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings (million US $): Botswana 1995 - 2005 Year Botswana % of Region % of Globe 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 0.64% 0.65% 0.64% 0.69% 0.68% 0.66% 0.64% 0.63% 0.61% 0.60% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Icon Group Ltd., copyright 2000, www.icongroupedition.com www.icongroupedition.com Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings 2.6 18 BURKINA FASO Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings (million US $): Burkina Faso 1995 - 2005 Year Burkina Faso % of Region % of Globe 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 0.60% 0.60% 0.58% 0.61% 0.60% 0.58% 0.57% 0.56% 0.55% 0.55% 0.54% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Icon Group Ltd., copyright 2000, www.icongroupedition.com 2.7 BURUNDI Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings (million US $): Burundi 1995 - 2005 Year Burundi % of Region % of Globe 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 0.22% 0.22% 0.21% 0.22% 0.22% 0.21% 0.21% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.19% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Icon Group Ltd., copyright 2000, www.icongroupedition.com www.icongroupedition.com Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings 2.8 19 CAMEROON Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings (million US $): Cameroon 1995 - 2005 Year Cameroon % of Region % of Globe 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 47 49 48 48 48 49 50 52 53 55 56 2.46% 2.47% 2.41% 2.58% 2.55% 2.47% 2.42% 2.37% 2.31% 2.26% 2.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Icon Group Ltd., copyright 2000, www.icongroupedition.com 2.9 CAPE VERDE Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings (million US $): Cape Verde 1995 - 2005 Year Cape Verde % of Region % of Globe 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Icon Group Ltd., copyright 2000, www.icongroupedition.com www.icongroupedition.com Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd. Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings 20 2.10 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings (million US $): Central African Republic 1995 - 2005 Year Central African Republic % of Region % of Globe 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 0.24% 0.24% 0.23% 0.24% 0.24% 0.23% 0.22% 0.22% 0.22% 0.22% 0.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Icon Group Ltd., copyright 2000, www.icongroupedition.com 2.11 CHAD Household Textiles, Soft Furnishings (million US $): Chad 1995 - 2005 Year Chad % of Region % of Globe 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 0.24% 0.24% 0.23% 0.25% 0.24% 0.23% 0.23% 0.22% 0.22% 0.22% 0.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Icon Group Ltd., copyright 2000, www.icongroupedition.com www.icongroupedition.com Ó2002 Icon Group Ltd.
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