Tài liệu Impacts of foreign direct investment onrestructure of exports in the northerncoastal region of vietnam

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SOUTHERN LUZON STATE UNIVERSITY, REPUBLIC OF PHILIPPINES IN COLLABORATION WITH THAI NGUYEN UNIVERSITY, SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF VIETNAM _______________________________________________________________________________ IMPACTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON RESTRUCTURE OF EXPORTS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL REGION OF VIETNAM DOCTOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BY DBA. Candidate: NGUYEN THIEN SU (SUNT) Scientific Adviser: Dr. TRAN DAI NGHIA July, 2013 0 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT One of the joys of completion is to look over the journey past and remember all the friends and family who have helped and supported me along this long but fulfilling road. I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to leaders of Thai Nguyen University in VietNam and Southern Luzon State University in the Philippines who created best conditions for me to complete the course generally and fulfill the disertation particularly. My sincere gratitude also goes to professors in the Council of Examiners for Framework of the DBA namely Professor Cecilia N. Gascon, Professor Walberto A. Macaraan, Professor Melchor Melo O. Placino, Professor Nordelina B.Ilano, Professor Do Anh Tai, Dr. Hoang Thi Thu who provided encouraging and constructive feedbacks. It is no easy task, reviewing a thesis, and I am grateful for their thoughtful and detailed comments. I would like to send my special thanks to Professor Tran Dai Nghia who guided the direction of the work with his careful and instructive comments during the process of writing the DBA. I could not have asked for better role models, each inspirational, supportive, and patient. I could not be prouder of my academic roots and hope that I can in turn pass on the research values and the dreams that he has given to me. My gratitude goes towards Professors directly gave me useful and memorable lectures in DBA namely Dr.Professor Cecilia N. Gascon, Dr.Professor Walberto A. Macaraan, Dr.Professor Melchor Melo O. Placino, Dr.Professor Alice T. Valerio, Dr. Professor Do Anh Tai, and Dr. Professor Tran Dai Nghia. They provided me a rich and i fertile environment to study and explore new ideas. They made my DBA life is ever fluid, and, in the course of it all, a warm and inviting place to work. I am grateful to lecturers who managed the International Cooperation Program between Vietnam and the Philippines namely Professor Nguyen Tuan Anh, Professor Dang Xuan Binh and Mr. Nguyen Thanh Hai. Without their cooperation, I could not have chance to join and fulfill the course. My thanks also send to the Hanoi College of Industrial Economics, functional ministries- Ministry of Industry and Trade, and my colleagues for their generous support. I have been surrounded by wonderful colleagues; thank you for welcoming me as a friend and helping to develop the ideas in this thesis. I would not have contemplated this road if not for my parents, my wife, my children, and all of my dear friends who instilled within me a love of creative pursuits, science and language, all of which finds a place in this thesis. Nguyen Thien Su July, 2013 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENT pager i TABLE OF CONTENTS iii ABSTRACT vi LIST OF TABLES vii LIST OF FIGURES viii CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. Background information 3 1.2. Statement of the problem 4 1.3. Hypotheses of the study 5 1.4. Objectives of the study 5 1.5. Significance of the study 6 1.6. Scope and limitations of the study 7 1.7. Definition of terms 7 1.8. Organization 9 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1. FDI and Effects of FDI 10 10 2.1.1. Forms of FDI 10 2.1.2. Determinants of FDI 12 2.1.3. Effects of FDI 15 2.1.4. The FDI trend in the world 18 2.2. Export structure 21 2.2.1. Classification 21 2.2.2. FDI flows and export 24 2.2.3. Export quality 27 2.2.4. Comparative advantage existing in exports 31 2.2.5. FDI and Shifting exports struture 33 2.2.6. Methodology of some studies using models of assessing the impact of FDI on shifting exports structure 36 2.3. Theoretical framework 39 2.3.1. Quantity and quality of export structure 39 2.3.2. Shifting export structure 41 iii 2.3.3. Factors determining the export structure and shifting exports structure 43 2.3.4. FDI in shifting exports structure 46 FDI with restructuring export products 46 The impact of FDI on Shifting Exports structure 55 2.4. Conceptual Framework 56 57 CHAPTER III: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1. Locale of the study 57 3.2. Research Design 60 3.2.1. Research Methodology 60 3.2.2. Variables used in the research 61 Variables to measure exports structure of the region 61 A Measurement of shifting exports structure in the Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam 63 A measurement of the impact of FDI on shifting exports structure 63 3.3. Data sources used to analizing and testing models 64 3.4. The models used in the study "The impact of FDI on shifting exports structure in the Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam" 65 3.4.1. Formula of the impact of FDI on shifting exports structure (SE) in the Northern Coastal Region 65 3.4.2. Two models used in the study "The impact of FDI on shifting exports structure in the Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam" 67 CHAPTER IV: PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF DATA 68 4.1. Role of the Northern Coastal Region in the economic development of the 68 country 4.2. The situation of enterprises and export goods: 4.2.1. Industrial development and Economic situations in period 1986-1995 72 72 4.2.2. Export analysis in period of 1995-2004 75 4.3. Impacts of FDI on restructuring exports in the Northern Coastal Region 79 in the period 2005 - 2012 4.3.1. Exports of the Northern Coastal Region 79 Export quality restructuring 79 Shifting exports structure in the Northern Coastal Region 83 4.3.2. FDI with shifting exports structure of the Northern Coastal Region 90 FDI actraction in Vietnam 90 The impacts of FDI on economic development 92 Impacts of FDI on shifting exports structure 95 98 4.4. Applying two theoretical models to test the impact of FDI on shifting exports structure in the Northern Coastal Region iv 4.4.1. The analytical model 1 can be written as follows 99 4.4.2. The model 2 can be written as follows 107 4.4.3. Assessments on the impacts of FDI on shifting exports structure of the 110 Northern Coastal Region CHAPTER V: SUMMARY OF FIDINGS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 116 116 118 119 119 5.1. Summary of the findings 5.2. Conclusions 5.3. Recommendations 5.3.1. The solutions for attracting and effective use of FDI for Shifting Export Structure in the Northern coastal region 129 5.3.2. Basic conditions to attract and use FDI to promote shifting exports structure. 130 5.3.3. Proposals for further research BIBLIOGRAPHY 138 APPENDICE 143 CURRICULUM VITAE 148 v ABSTRACT This study was carried out to explore the impact of FDI on shifting process of exports structure in the Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam. Specifically, this study intended to answer questions of (1) influence of FDI on elements of the economy, (2) definition of shifting exports structure, (3) impact of FDI on shifting exports structure, and (4) solutions to attract FDI for shifting exports structure in the region. The main objective of the research was to take route to shift exports structure, to attract FDI, to propose oriented solutions to best promote the specific role of FDI, to cater to shift exports structure in terms of quantity, and to improve the quality of exports structure. The methodology of the thesis was to review the various relevant literatures. Method of system analysis, method of fieldwork, method of comparison, quantitative research methods and forecasting method were also used in the study. Findings showed that there have been visible changes in term of quantity of exports structure in the Northern Coastal Region. Also, a new classification of the exports structure and of the exports structuring besides the traditional classifications such as SITC, VSIC was revealed from the study. Additionally, the two analytical models used the study showed the accurate results about the impacts of FDI on shifting exports structure in the Northern Coastal Region. Based on the scientific conclusions, solutions and policy implications relating for attracting and making the best uses of FDI in the region are given in the study. The study confirmed the positive impact of FDI implementation including inputs and outputs to the region's exports restructuring both in terms of quantity and quality of the exports structure. Specifically, the FDImade capital has a positive impact on both the quality and quantity of the exports structure. However it showes a greater impact on the quality than that on the quantity; The impact of FDI on the exports of processed or refined goods was higher than that of raw material goods. The FDI increases export value of private sector significantly; while it negatively influences to that of State Owned Enterprises; The exchange rate also has an significant effect on the quantity of export than on the quality. vi LIST OF TABLES Table CONTENT pager 4.1 68 4.13 4.14 4.15 The economic indicators of the Northern Coastal Region and the whole country, in 2010 Industrial growth of economic sectors Registered businesses in international trade in the period of 1995-2004 Contribution of economic sectors to total export turnover The total export value in the Northern Coastal Region in the period 2005-2012 The total export value of provinces in the Northern Coastal Region in the period 2005-2012 Export value of 10 main items with largest proportion of the total export in the Northern Coastal Region in the period of 2005-2012 The Export structure of the Northern Coastal Region in the period of 20052012 Export situation in the Northern Coastal region in the period of 2005-2012 Shifting exports from raw materials to processed products in the Northern Coastal region in the period of 2005-2012 PROPY indicator of primary exports of the Northern Coastal Region in the period of 2006-2012. EXPY of the Northern Coastal Region in the period 2006- 2012 (For primary goods of the Northern Coastal Region) Proportion of exports goods with highest PRODY index Quality of some exports with high processed content in exports structure of the Northern Coastal Region Foreign investment (project implemented before December 2012) FDI licensed in the period 1988-2012 by regions FDI and economic growth in the Northern Coastal Region 4.16 4.17 Average wages in the Northern Coastal region in the period of 2005-2012 Average wages in FDI enterprises in the period of 2005-2012 96 97 4.18 97 98 100 102 4.22 FDI with changes in the proportion of export in FDI sector in the period 2005-2012 Export value of FDI with high level processed goods FDI and the Northern Coastal Region export performance FDI and the Northern Coastal Region export performance by category of exported goods. Dependent variable Export value by Northern Coastal Region (Log EVt) 4.23 4.24 Variables used in the model 2 Results of testing models 2 107 107 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5a 4.5b 4.6 4.7 4.8a 4.8b 4.9 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.19 4.20 4.21 vii 75 76 77 79 79 81 82 83 84 86 87 88 89 91 92 95 105 LIST OF FIGURES Figure CONTENT Pager 2.1 FDI input factors with shifting exports structure 52 2.2 Elements of FDI towards impacts on shifting exports structure 56 3.1 Map showing the survey areas, Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam, 2012 57 4.1 Export growth rate of the Northern Coastal Region in the period of 20052012 80 4.2 Comparing export value of 3 groups of the Northern Coastal Region in the 85 period of 2005-2012 4.3 FDI attraction in Vietnam period of 1988-2012 90 4.4 FDI in total investment (%) 93 4.5 Contribution of FDI sector in GDP (%) 94 viii CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION Vietnam officially became a member of WTO five years ago. Since then, Vietnam’s economy has undergone many changes and a lot of economic development strategies have been in effects to solve a problem considered as a key point after integrating into international economic arena, which is how to make gains more than " losses". In a simple term, the loss of revenue due to tariff cuts under WTO integration commitments must be offset by revenues earned from exporting goods, products, and services. The economy of Vietnam has made many progresses as export has increased relatively stable. However, the economy still faces very serious problems including high inflation rate and sharply increased in trade deficit. According to the trade balance data, the growth rate of import has always been higher than that of export since 2006; Statistics from the General Statistics Office showed that trade deficit was US $5.07 billion and US $14.2 billion in 2006 and in 2007 respectively; import-export balance continued to be negative at US $12.9 billion in 2009, US $12.4 billion, and US $12.71 billion in 2011. Particularly, in the first quarter of 2012, the trade deficit was over US $251 million, equal to 1% of the total export value. In which, the whole domestic sector was in deficit of US $2.75billion whereas foreign investment sector was in surplus of $2.5billion. According to statistics from the World Trade Organization, in 2010, Vietnam became the largest importer in the Association of Southeast Asian countries (ASEAN), 1.5 times it equaled to imports of ASEAN countries combined. Therefore, trade surplus target after joining WTO of Vietnam has not been reached. Aiming at creating economic growth in a sustainable way, solving problems mentioned above and meeting the goals set when joining the WTO in particular and global economic integration in general, Vietnam has taken many measures to reduce trade deficit and the most radical measures are to accelerate the pace and to improve the 1 competitiveness of export goods. However, in recent years, the export value of Vietnam has been very low, one of the reasons is that the structure of Vietnam's trade has been changed slowly, the structure of exports were still very backward, and exports were increased mostly in quantity while the export quality has not been improved, and heavily tilted towards commodities of agriculture, forestry, fisheries, crude oil, coal, and other low-value added processing commodities. At present, the export value of crude oil and low-value added goods makes up over 60% of total export value. Industries have high percentage of outsourcing, especially apparel and footwear. Heavy industrial goods account for 16% and they are mainly minerals, machinery and high technology products make up only 2% and 8.3 % respectively. According to the research carried out by economists, together with promoting export quantity, the most important thing that every country would like to have is to form an approptiate export structure consisting of high value added goods with high technological content and a greater proportion in the exports basket [61]. The reason to focus on improving export structure towards raising the quality of export structure is that it can affect the economic growth of the country by the amount of exports [39]. In other words, the increasing level of the sophistication of export products can increase economic growth [14]. In addition, according to Kassicieh and Suleiman (2002), if a country has the quality of exports structure with high technological content products making up a large proportion in the basket of exported products, it will reduce risks from fluctuations in the global trade. Moreover, revenues generated from exports would increase and be sustained, which is the sufficient condition and the target that the export should be directed to. The fact that the countries participating in international trade have always tried to make positive changes in the structure of their exports in order to gain advantage in 2 exports. Besides, great problems that Vietnam's exports facing are the threshold production of traditional export products and the threat of losing comparative advantage in exports . Therefore, Vietnam will face great difficulties in the future if it does not improve significantly in its exports quality. This is one of the biggest problems in the reform strategy of exports of Vietnam. 1.1. Background information The Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam includes five provinces, i.e., Quang Ninh, Hai Phong, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, and Ninh Binh. According to Decision No. 865/QĐ-TTg of the Prime Minister of Vietnam dated 2008, the Northern Coastal Region was oriented to become an important economic region of the nation. The goal was to take all of its potentials and advantages for the development of the Region to contribute to and play a major role in socio-economic development of Vietnam. The Northern Coastal Region is one of nine economic regions of Vietnam contributing to the economic development of the country including export activity. However, those contributions are not commensurate with potentials and advantages of the region. Besides, the region's export situation is in the same for the whole country; The export structure is backward, poor in quality, and not commensurate with the potentials of the region. The Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam has also been facing pressures from the international economic integration, not only for export activities, but also for economic development in general as well. Hence, the issue of improving the export structure has become essential not only for the region itself, but also for the economy development. Therefore, shifting export structure of the Northern Coastal Region in particular and Vietnam in general, has become an indispensable requirement, and it is also necessary to have an appropriate and really hard leverage to promote this process to obtain the desired target. 3 In recent years, Foreign direct investment has played an increasingly vital role in the economic development of Viet nam in general and of each region, province, town, and cities in particular, and especially export activities. Recently, Foreign direct investment has always taken "engine role" in creating value and made up more than 40% of the total export value of the country. The FDI has played the essential role in promoting export for Viet Nam in general and and for the Northern Coastal Region in particular"[12]. In addition, the Foreign direct investment with advantages of technology, capital investment, production experiences, marketing skills, etc., has a great influence in improving the quality of exported goods. Foreign direct investment will also meet requirements of exports restructure. The study of the impacts of Foreign direct investment on restructuring export sector in the Northern Coastal Region will be expected to have significant contribution theoritically and practically. The results of the study will provide scientific basic recommendation and references for policy makers in forming the best policy in restructuring export sector to maximize benefits of exports sustainably. This is the reason for carrying out the study of “Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on restructure of exports in the Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam” . 1.2. Statement of the problem The main issue to be addressed in this research is impacts of Foreign direct investment on shifting exports structure in the Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam. Specifically, this study intends to answer the following questions: (1) How has foreign direct investment affected the elements of the economy? (2) What quantitative factors are changes in export structure? 4 (3) How foreign direct investment has been affecting the shift of export structure in the Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam (4) What are the solutions to attract FDI on shifting exports structure of the Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam? 1.3. Hypotheses of the study The following hypotheses were tested in the study: Hypothesis 1: The FDI promote shifting exports structure in the Northern Coastal Region both quantitatively and qualitatively. Hypothesis 2: FDI will significantly influences export values of private sector and public sector differently. Hypothesis 3: FDI made for raw commodities and processed food increases the value of the exports in both processed products (FDIpro) and raw material expported products (FDIraw). Hypothesis 4: Export value of FDI sector has increased the quality of export products in the Northern Coastal region. Hypothesis 5: The value of industrial productions from FDI sector can boost the impact on the complexity of export goods. 1.4. Objectives of the study 1.4.1. General objective: To analyze the practical impacts of FDI and how the implementation of FDI can influence restructure of exports quantitatively and qualitatively in the Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam. 5 1.4.2. Specific objective: To review the impacts of FDI on shifting exports structure and some related matters To analyze quantitative indicators reflecting the quality of exports structure To use the models to test the impacts of FDI on shifting exports structure in the Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam To provide a set of policy recommendations and proposed solutions in order to attract and to make effective use of FDI to promote the exports restructuring towards improving the quality and quantity of the exports in the Northern Coast region. 1.5. Significance of the study The study impacts of FDI on shifting exports structure in the Northern Coastal Region has the following contributions: The results of this study will be used as a scientific basis for assessing the role of FDI in shifting the region's exports structure in particular and Vietnam in general. Those classifications are significant for the study as well as the consideration and review of the quality of exports structure or the export quality of each group of items, each item in order to have timely evaluation of shifting process and export adjustments which are very necessary to achieve objectives. Implication of analyzing the role of the FDI to shift exports structure in Northern Coastal Region could be the basic reference for further research with relevant issues in other regions and for whole country. This research can help policy makers and provincial authorities in making economic policies at provincial and national levels with directions, policies, and specific 6 measures accordingly in order to use FDI effectively to serve improving exports structure of the province in particular and the whole country in general, to achieve objectives of sustainable export, as well as growth and economic development in the context of international integration. The theoretical analysis as well as the status of export activities, the attraction and use of FDI, and assessment of the impacts of FDI on shifting exports structure to accelerate the process of restructuring in terms of export quantity, and more importantly to improve the quality of exports structure in the Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam and the whole country. The solutions proposed by the research can be a specific and practical application of the management of the exports and use of FDI offered by foreign partners in a proactive and effective way. 1.6. Scope and limitations of the study This research aimed at studying in a spatial scale of the Northern Coastal Region of Vietnam; including five provinces of Quang Ninh, Hai Phong, Thai Binh, Nam Dinh, and Ninh Binh. Research data ranged from 1995 to 2012. The scope of this research was to analyze the structure of tangible exports. Thus, the author focussed on studying elements such as the capital performance by foreign parties, export value of the FDI sector and value of industrial production of the FDI sector. 1.7. Definition of terms - Foreign direct investment (FDI): is an investment activity carried out by economic organizations and individuals in any country which by themselves or 7 combined with other economic organizations or individuals of another country to conduct fund in cash or property in that country under a certain form of investment - Input of FDI: it can be understood in the most general way that FDI is an amount of necessary capital to start business activities that foreign investors need to spend. The amount of capital can be expressed in money or property, such as: Tangible fixed assets (machinery, equipment, technological assembly line…) or intangible fixed assets (patents, trade secret, trademark or current assets (raw materials, spare parts etc). Thus, it can be understood that the inputs of FDI is the real capital of foreign investors spent at the time of initial or added to conduct business activities in a field which is registered and accredited by investment-receiving countries. - Output of FDI: Includes elements which were made after the process of conducting business in investment-receiving countries such as Gross Output (GO), Gross Domestic Products (GDP FDI), or the contribution of FDI to the export sector (EVFDI) - FDI performance: Is the impact of FDI input elements - Export structure: Is a whole including many commodities or commodity groups which account for a certain percentage in terms of quantity as well as a certain proportion of the total value of export structure - Shifting exports structure: According to Nguyen Huu Khai (2007), "shifting exports structure is the change of exports structure from this state to another state in accordance with requirements of development"[16]. - Value Added (VA): Is difference between Gross Output (GO) and Intermediate Cost (IC). - The value of industrial production in FDI areas: Is an independent variable of FDI output showing gross output of industrial sectors using FDI. 8 - The export value in FDI areas: Is an element of FDI output showing the contribution of FDI in export sector - Income per capital: Is a measure of mean income within an economic aggregate, such as a country or city. It is calculated by taking a measure of all sources of income in the aggregate (such as GDP or Gross National Income) and dividing it by the total population. 1.8. Organization: The dissertation is divided into five chapters; the first chapter gives an introduction on the topic, the second chapter of the dissertation provides a methodological overview in terms of theory: FDI affects exports structure both in quantity and in quality. Chapter 3 presents information about theoretical models to be developed within the analytical framework of the dissertation selected. Chapters 4 indicates the synthesis of data, model testing results along with the present value analysis, interpretation, and evaluation of the impacts of FDI on shifting exports structure in the Northern Coastal region. The final chapter includes a summary of findings, conclusion, and proposes solutions for attracting and effective usage of FDI and recommendations for further research for shifting exports structure in the Northern Coastal region of Vietnam. 9 CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1. FDI and Effects of FDI 2.1.1. Forms of FDI Moosa (2002) raised the FDI classification in the view of Caves (1971), including the definitions: Firstly, horizontal FDI, which aims to expand the production of similar products in host country as the product of home country. Secondly, the vertical FDI has another purpose, which is aimed at the exploitation of raw materials or close to consumers through distribution channels. Thirdly, FDI group is the sum of the horizontal FDI and vertical FDI [62]. Heopman (1984) thought that the multinational companies (MNCs) with the desire to maximize profits and to choose the location to minimize the cost of production, including transport costs, expenses tariff charges. Therefore, they would split the production of products in various countries. Especially the product phase should focus on unskilled labor, will be located in countries with lower wage costs (investment-receiving countries). Meanwhile, these countries would import intermediate goods, machinery and equipment from MNCs (corresponding to the increased export MNCs) and increase export the final product. At this time, FDI was called vertical FDI. From the investment-receiving countries, FDI can be classified into importsubstituting FDI, FDI increases exports and FDI under the Government's efforts. Importsubstituting FDI related to the production of products that were previously imported by the country receiving the investment. When that country's imports decrease, investing countries’s exports also decline. The type of investment seems to be determined by the scale of market acceptance of the host country, transportation costs and trade barriers.The second type of FDI is motivated by the desire to seek new sources of input for many products such as raw materials and intermediate goods. Meanwhile, FDI – 10 recipient countries are driven by the desire to find other resources to invest in production as raw and intermediate goods. And FDI recipient countries will increase exports of raw materials, intermediate goods and investment to the investing country and to other countries which have branches of multinational companies. The third type of FDI is that the governments of countries receiving investment encourage foreign investment in an effort to balance the payments deficit. We can see that the approach of the investmentreceiving countries has become strategic development particularly in countries with developing economies, it is import-substituting FDI and export-oriented FDI. FDI can also be classified by the way of extension to exploit the advantages of investment in the host countries, to increase sales of investment firms in their home countries and countries receiving investment. Besides, FDI is also seeking labor in host countries to reduce production costs. Extended FDI is affected mainly by the advantages of firms in investing countries, such as the size of the firm, the focus for research and development (R & D) and profitability by the advantages of technology. Maitena Duce, Banco de Espana (2003)’s classification based on the direction of investment, FDI assets and liabilities under the perspectives of the host country. The financial expansion of parent company to its subsidiaries in other countries, is considered as direct investment abroad and vice versa the financial expansion of its affiliates or subsidiaries in foreign countries, is considered as the reduction in direct foreign investment in foreign countries. And from the investment-receiving countries, there has the opposite direction. In addition, FDI is also classified based on the investment tool that means fact source of FDI; That is capital property revenues incubation enter and reinvestment from other sources such as debt and joint venture. Finally, FDI is classified by industry classification, according to which FDI flows into any sector for that sector shall be calculated without taking into account the investor's capital flow of the 11
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