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MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT THUY LOI UNIVERSITY WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE NONG BAO ANH MSc Thesis on Integrated Water Resources Management May 2015 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT THUY LOI UNIVERSITY NONG BAO ANH WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE Major: Integrated Water Resources Management THESIS OF MASTER DEGREE Supervisor (s): 1. Assoc. Prof. Nguyen Thu Hien 2. Dr. Ngo Le An This reseacrch is done for the partial fulfilment of requirement for Master of Science Degree at Thuy Loi University (This Mater Programme is supported by NICHE – VNM 106 Project) May 2015 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Nong Bao Anh Page 1 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT........................................................................................................................... 3 DECLARATION ................................................................................................................... 5 ACKNOWLEDGMENT ....................................................................................................... 6 ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................................... 8 LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................... 9 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................... 11 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................ 13 1.1. Background ............................................................................................................... 13 1.2. Problem statement..................................................................................................... 14 1.3. Research questions .................................................................................................... 15 1.4. Methodology ............................................................................................................. 16 1.5. Structure of the thesis ............................................................................................... 18 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................ 19 2.1. Water allocation: An overview ................................................................................. 19 2.2. Integrated Water Resources Management ................................................................ 20 2.3. Climate change impacts on water resources ............................................................. 22 2.4. Climate change scenarios.......................................................................................... 24 2.5. Models for IWRM .................................................................................................... 26 CHAPTER 3: DESCRIPTION OF STUDY SITE ............................................................. 32 3.1. Geographical location and topography ..................................................................... 32 3.2. Climate ...................................................................................................................... 33 3.2.1. Temperature ....................................................................................................... 33 3.2.2. Humidity ............................................................................................................ 34 3.2.3. Evaporation ........................................................................................................ 34 3.2.4. Rainfall............................................................................................................... 35 3.2.5. Hydrology conditions ........................................................................................ 37 3.3. Socio-economic development ................................................................................... 40 3.3.1. Population .......................................................................................................... 40 3.3.2. Economy structure ............................................................................................. 41 3.4. River network ........................................................................................................... 41 3.5. Water Storage ........................................................................................................... 41 3.6. Water use activities ................................................................................................... 43 Nong Bao Anh Page 1 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis CHAPTER 4: WATER BALANCE SIMULATION FOR THE HUONG RIVER BASIN ............................................................................................................................................. 46 4.1. Schematization of the Huong River Basin ................................................................ 46 4.2. Data Requirements .................................................................................................... 48 4.2.1. Runoff ................................................................................................................ 48 4.2.2. Water demand .................................................................................................... 54 4.2.3. The return flow .................................................................................................. 58 4.2.4. Reservoirs .......................................................................................................... 59 4.3. The computation of scenarios ................................................................................... 59 CHAPTER 5: RESULTS ANALYSIS ............................................................................... 61 5.1. Water supply and water requirement results............................................................. 61 5.1.1. Water supply ...................................................................................................... 61 5.1.2. Water requirements ............................................................................................ 62 5.2. Results analysis ......................................................................................................... 68 5.2.1. SC1 scenario ...................................................................................................... 68 5.2.3. SC2 scenario ...................................................................................................... 76 5.2.2. SC3 scenario ...................................................................................................... 78 5.2.3. SC4 scenario ...................................................................................................... 80 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................... 84 6.1. Conclusions............................................................................................................... 84 6.2. Recommendations ..................................................................................................... 85 REFERENCES .................................................................................................................... 86 APPENDICES ..................................................................................................................... 89 Nong Bao Anh Page 2 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis ABSTRACT Water is essential for human, however, is finite and vulnerable (ICWE, 1992). In recent years, water crisis has been singled out as a major worldwide concern. World-wide water demand has been reported to increase by over six times during the last century (Gourbesville, 2008). It is claimed to be the consequence of growth in world population, which has been tripled during the last century, and speedy industry enlargement as well as agriculture development. As a result, developing countries are those who mostly have to face with water scarcity. Moreover, in recent years, the impacts of climate change on water scarcity have become an emerging concerned. Extreme weather events, increasing uneven distribution of seasonal water leading to drought, floods and, for example, are some negative impacts of climate change, which has been alarmingly threatening the water balance in developing countries. This research investigates the water availability and water demand in Huong River Basin in order to find out appropriate management measure to mitigate the water shortage problem in dry season. Huong River Basin which lies within Thu Thien Hue province, located in the specific monsoon climate area of Central Part of Vietnam with severe hydrological regime: very long dry season, short rain season but often with very large runoff. This area usually witnesses water shortage in the long dry season. Bearing the stress of explosive increase of water demand from excessive population growth and blossoming economic development, combined with the decrease of water supply in dry season as a result of climate change impacts, the Huong River Basin’s water management need to be exquisitely investigated. The water use activities in this basin include domestic, irrigation, industry, livestock and aquaculture. The purposes of this study are to analyze the water balance of Huong River Basin in three scenarios, the current scenario in 2010 and the future scenario in the future with the projected socio-economic development as well as Nong Bao Anh Page 3 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis changes in the climate system characteristic according to B2 scenario. To complete this task, the WEAP model is implemented to simulate the water balance in the basin with the help of MIKE-NAM model to calculate the water inflow to river basin from rainfall data and CROPWAT to compute the water requirement for crop. The research shows there are currently imbalances between water supply and water demand in the dry season especially in March and April. In 2030, the system cannot supply sufficient water quantity for the projected growing demand of socioeconomic development scenario in June and July which are in dry season, right after the periodic flood. The unmet demand is slightly go up compared to the current scenario. However, the situation is much more severe in the scenario in which the climate change impacts are considered. The water deficit is about four times bigger than it was in the scenario which only reflects the socio-economic development. Moreover, it appears from February to July within different areas. After analyzing the results of simulation models, several structure and non-structure solutions are proposed. Nong Bao Anh Page 4 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis DECLARATION I hereby certify that the work which is being presented in this thesis entitled, ―Water balance in the Huong River Basin in context of climate change‖ in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of the Master of Science in Integrated Water Resource Management, is an authentic record of my own work carried out under supervision of Associate Professor. Nguyen Thu Hien and Dr. Ngo Le An The matter embodied in this thesis has not been submitted by me for the award of any other degree or diploma. Date: Nong Bao Anh Page 5 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to express my deep gratitude to many people who helped to complete this Thesis at its best. First and foremost I wish to thank to my supervisor, Associate Professor Nguyen Thu Hien, Dean of Thuyloi University’s Water Resources Engineering Faculty, for her instruction, understanding and also, patience during the time I conducted this Thesis. With her considerable guidance and shared experience from many year of being water resources expert, I am able to bring this research into fruition. However, it is not only just during this time she is supporting me, but also for all the way long of seven years I have learnt in this University from my Bachelor Degree to this Master course, she always be there willing to instruct me about professional researching skills, turning me into an independence thinker which assists me to grow as a lecturer, a researcher and a better learner. I would also wish to express my deeply gratefulness to my second supervisor, Doctor Ngo Le An, who is the Deputy Head of Thuyloi University’s Hydrology and Water Resources Division for his tutor and corrections in the application of simulation models, the field which I had very few experience. His mentorship was paramount in providing a well rounded experience consistent my long-term career goals. He was the one to point out for me the importance of balancing the theoretical knowledge and ability to mastering in models use in Water Engineering and Water Management, at the same time, was the one enable me to do so. He encourages me to run all the models used in my thesis on my own but was always there as a blanket to help me to learn from mistakes. I am not sure many postgraduate students are given such treasured opportunity like mine. For everything you have done for me, Assoc. Prof. Hien and Dr. An, I thank you. I would especially like to thank the Management Board including members from Thuyloi University, Hanoi University of Natural Resources and Environment Nong Bao Anh Page 6 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis University and UNESCO-IHE for organizing this wonderful Master course and providing me a chance to sharpen my professional knowledge. Many thanks to my colleagues in the Department of Climate Change and Sustainable Development, HUNRE where I am working for supporting me in many way during the time I am busy with my Thesis. I would also like to acknowledge my friends from Thuyloi University including Ms. Dao Thi Xuyen, Mr. Nguyen Son Tung and many others for their help with the preparing input for models. Finally, words cannot express how grateful I am to my parents and my girlfriend who is currently staying in England for theirs unwavering support and continuous encouragement throughout my year of study and through the process of researching and writing this Thesis. This achievement would not be possible without them, thank you. Nong Bao Anh Page 7 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis ABBREVIATIONS CMS Cubic Meter per Second DARD Department of Agriculture and Rural Development HRB Huong River Basin FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GWP Global Water Partnership HUNRE Hanoi University of Natural Resources and Environment IMHEN Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development MCM Million Cubic Meter MW MegaWatt NCAP the Netherlands Climate Assistance Program NWC National Water Commission TLU ThuyLoi University UN United Nation VNCID Vietnam National Commission on Irrigation and Drainage WRS Water Resources System Nong Bao Anh Page 8 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: The location of Huong River Basin……...…………………………... 13 Figure 2.1: Cycle diagram of climate change impacts……...…………………..... 23 Figure 2.2: The Schematization of Huong River Basin………….……………..... 28 Figure 2.3: The general structure of NAM model (Nielsen & Hansen, 1973)...…. 30 Figure 3.1: Huong River Basin ………………….…………...…..……………… 32 Figure 3.2: The annual average rainfall of observe stations……...………….…... 36 Figure 3.3: Monthly average rainfall of observed stations……...………….……. 37 Figure 3.4: The annual runoff in the period from 1977 to 2010…………………. 38 Figure 3.5: Monthly inflow to the basin in the period 1977-2010……………….. 39 Figure 3.5: Map of cultivated area…………………………………...…………... 44 Figure 4.1: Schematization of Huong River Network………………………….... 48 Figure 4.2: Map of 9 sub-basins in the Huong River Basin………..……………. 49 Figure 4.3: The variance between observed and simulated discharge in Thuong Nhat Station……………………………...………………………………………... 53 Figure 4.4: The variance between observed and simulated discharge in Binh Dien Station……………………...……………………………………………………... 54 Figure 4.5: The variance between observed and simulated discharge in Co Bi Station ………………………………………..……………………………………54 Figure 5.1: The inflow to branches in 2010, SC1 scenario………..…………….. 68 Figure 5.2: Water requirements by sectors in 2010, SC1 scenario……….…..….. 69 Figure 5.3: Unmet demand by months in 2010, SC1 scenario……………..……. 70 Figure 5.4: The monthly inflow to the upstream area of Bo River in SC1 scenario ……………………………………………………………………………………..71 Nong Bao Anh Page 9 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Figure5.5: The monthly water requirement of upstream Bo River Agriculture area in SC1 scenario…………………………………………..……………………….. 71 Figure 5.6: Ta Trach Reservoirs Hydropower turbine flow and power generation. ……………………………………………………………………………………...73 Figure 5.7: BinhDien Reservoir hydropower turbine flow and power generation.74 Figure 5.8: Huong Dien Reservoir hydropower turbine flow and power generation…………………………………………………………………………. 75 Figure 5.9: The total inflow in 2010 in SC2 scenario………………...………….. 76 Figure 5.10: The unmet demand in 2010 in SC2 scenario…………...…………... 77 Figure 5.11: Monthly inflow to region in 2010 in SC2 scenario………...………. 78 Figure 5.12: Monthly unmet demand in 2030, SC3 scenario…………..………... 80 Figure 5.13: The changes in the inflow of SC4 scenario compared to SC3 scenario.. ……………………………………………………………………………………...81 Figure 5.14: Monthly unmet demand in 2030, SC4 scenario………………..…... 82 Figure 5.15: Monthly inflow to the area…………...…………………………….. 82 Nong Bao Anh Page 10 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: The changes in average temperature (0C) compared to the period 19801999 in Thua Thien Hue province by seasons in B2 scenario……………………. 25 Table 2.2: The changes in average rainfall compared to the period 1980-1999 in Thua Thien Hue province by seasons in B2 scenario ……………………………..26 Table 3.1: Monthly average temperature in Huong River Basin from 2009 to 2012 ……………………………………………………………………………………...34 Table 3.2: Average humidity in Huong River Basin from 2009 to 2012………… 34 Table 3.4: Mean evaporation in Huong River Basin from 2009 to 2012 …………34 Table 3.5: Hydrological and hydro-meteorological stations network in the Huong River Basin…………………………………………………………………………35 Table 3.6: Average population by Gender and by District in 2010……………… 40 Table 3.7: Average population by District from 2009-2012…………………….. 40 Table 3.8: Location and area of industrial zones …………………………………45 Table 4.1: Description of sub-basins ……………………………………………...50 Table 4.2: NAM parameters explanation and boundaries (Shamsudin & Hashim, 2002) ………………………………………………………………………………51 Table 4.3: The reliability of Nash coefficient……………………………………. 52 Table 4.4: Calibrated parameters…………………………………………………. 52 Table 4.5: Nash coefficient ……………………………………………………….53 Table 4.6: Vietnamese standard for domestic water use………………………… 56 Table 4.7: Vietnamese standard for livestock consumption ………………………57 Table 4.8: Water requirement for aquaculture ……………………………………58 Table 4.9: The scenarios development…………………………………………….59 Nong Bao Anh Page 11 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis Table 5.1: Population by District in 2030 ………………………………………...64 Table 5.2: The increasing rate of the amount of livestock ………………………..65 Table 5.3: Monthly water requirement of nodes in SC1 and SC2 scenario……… 67 Table 5.4: Monthly water requirement of nodes in SC3scenario …………………67 Table 5.5: Monthly water requirement of nodes in SC4 scenario………………... 67 Table 5.6: Comparison of water requirement by sectors between SC2 and SC3 scenario…………………………………………………………………………….79 Table 5.7: Comparison of water requirement by sectors between SC1, SC3 and SC4 scenario ……………………………………………………………………………81 Nong Bao Anh Page 12 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1. Background Huong River, with its length of 128 km, is the largest river system in Thua Thien Hue province. The river lies within the province and covers 3/5 of the total area which is the consist of Nam Dong, Huong Thuy, Huong Tra, Phong Dien District, part of A luoi, Quang Dien, Phu Vang, Phu Loc District and Hue city. The drainage area is 3000 km2. In 2010, the population of Huong River Basin is about 1,137,962 people, most of them are living in the rural area which accounted for 92% of the population. The topography of the river basin is complex including mountainous area, hills, lagoon, coastal plain and coastal sand dune. Huong River is the main water source in this province which supplies water for almost all domestic usage and economic development activities. Figure 1.1: The location of Huong River Basin Nong Bao Anh Page 13 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis 1.2. Problem statement Huong River basin lies in Thua Thien Hue Province, which located in the specific monsoon climate area of Central Part of Vietnam with severe hydrological regime: very long dry season, short rain season but often with very big flow and discharge. Every year, this area has to bear number of extreme weather events such as typhoons, tropical cyclones which bring heavy rain with high density. Moreover, the topography of the basin changes rapidly from the upstream high mountain zone down to the plain and large lagoon system, with hardly any transition area. This results in a high runoff in the rainy season, and large floods and inundations downstream. The annual average rainfall of this basin is 2800-3200 mm; however, nearly 80% of rainfall concentrates in the 4 months of rainy season causing uneven water distribution in the research area. Additionally, the high temperature in dry season also increases the chance of losing water through evaporation. Many reservoirs had been built to mitigate the water shortage in dry season by storing water from the rainy season. Nevertheless, water shortage in dry season is still appeared as an emerging issue. Besides, the population growth and the development of water demand in every sector in this area leading to extremely high competing requirements of different stakeholder which exaggerate the water shortage status and intensify the pressure on water management tasks. Also, Tran Thuc (2010) proved in his project ―Impact of climate change on water resources in the Huong River basin and adaptation measures‖ that the decrease of rainfall results in the decline of river flow in dry season and the increase of evapotranspiration due to higher temperature is appeared in most of the climate change scenarios. All of the water use activities in Thua Thien Hue province, consisting irrigation, aquaculture, domestic, livestock, and industry as well as power generation depend mainly on Huong River. There are currently large imbalances between water availability and water demand in this region as the existing system cannot supply Nong Bao Anh Page 14 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis sufficient water for all stakeholders in dry season; as well as the exaggerated situation might appear in the future under the pressure of increasing demand and negatively influences on water supply due to climate change impacts. To deal with this set of troubles and moving toward a sustainable society, there is a new paradigm which was proved its effectiveness in many regions with the similar situation such as South Africa, Myanmar, etc… with its own holistic approach, Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). As there are inter-links between all sectors to the Water Resources System (WRS) (Arnell, 1999), as well as the close interaction from the three components of WRS itself, the holistic approach of IWRM offers an ultimate solution to ease the increasing water scarcity for developing countries. However, before drawing any optimal solutions and specific strategy for planning, IWRM requires huge numbers of exquisite analysis of WRS components. Therefore, this study was brought out in order to contribute to IWRM planning with an insight of the balance between water availability and water demand among different stakeholder at the present as well as in projected future scenarios under climate change context. Then, management measures will be proposed after considering changes within problems. To achieve this goal, hydrological model MIKE11-NAM, Crop water requirement simulation model CROPWAT 8.0 and river basin simulation model (WEAP) are employed to address the impacts of changing water availability and water demands under different scenarios. 1.3. Research questions Several main questions have to be answered in order to clarify the issue for the purpose of bringing out water management measures: 1. What is the water shortage in each region of the river basin currently and why? 2. How social-economic development can affect water shortage status in the river basin? Nong Bao Anh Page 15 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis 3. How climate change impacts can affect the water shortage status in the river basin? 4. What are the recommended solutions to mitigate the water shortage in dry season with the consideration of climate change scenario in 2030? 1.4. Methodology In order to carry out this research, relevant data and information in the study area must be collected, analyzed and simulated. Basically, the data collection comprises (1) time series of the river discharge; (2) water demands of all water use activities in each region, including agriculture, aquaculture, domestic, livestock, industry and environment in the present and the forecast of those water use activities in the future under Climate Change Scenarios; (3) the characteristics of the infrastructures in the basin such as reservoirs (initial water level, operational rule curves, stage-areavolume curve, time series of rainfall and evaporation, linkages to users, priority of delivery, linkages to upstream). The set of information included the potential proposed measures that can be implemented to mitigate water shortage status in dry season of research area. The methodology applied to conduct the Thesis can be summary in the following framework. Collecting data Nong Bao Anh Data analysis and simulation Devoloping scenarios Proposing management measure Result analysis Page 16 WATER BALANCE IN THE HUONG RIVER BASIN IN CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE MSc Thesis The approach of the study is using models to simulate the water status in Huong River Basin, therefore, a conceptual framework of basic step to apply models was developed. Water supply -Mike-Nam: runoff Simulating water balance in Huong river basin WEAP Water demand - Irrigation: CROPWAT 8.0 Domestic Livestock Industry Aquaculture Alternative supply and demand scenarios: - SC1 (current) - SC2 (dry year) - SC3 (projected socio-economic development in 2030) - SC4 (projected socio-economic development in 2030 + B2 Climate change scenario) The focus is on WEAP model’s simulation; however, it is possible only when the input data of water supply and water demand are carefully evaluated. The water supply input is the runoff calculated by MIKE-NAM. The water demand input is the combination of the requirement of five main water use sectors, including irrigation requirement which was computed by CROPWAT 8.0 as well as domestic, livestock, industry, aquaculture which were evaluated based on Vietnamese statistic yearbook and Vietnam standard. After that, WEAP was applied to examine the current water status in 2010 as well as alternative projected situation in 2030 based on developed scenarios both with and without the changes of climate system. Nong Bao Anh Page 17
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