Tài liệu US - China relations: China policy on Capitol Hill

U.S.–China Relations With China’s rapid ascendance to great power status, the U.S.–China relationship has become one of the most important international relationships in the world today. This book explores relations between the U.S. and China, focusing in particular on China policy-making in the U.S. Congress, which has been unusually active in the development of this relationship. Based on detailed analysis of China bills introduced in Congress over the past three decades, it provides detailed analysis of how Congressional policy-making works in practice, and explores the most controversial issues in U.S.–China relations: Taiwan, trade and human rights. It considers the voting patterns and party divisions on these issues, showing that liberals and conservatives often form an alliance concerning China because China’s authoritarian regime, human rights problems, soaring trade surplus with the U.S and rising military power attract criticism from both camps. It also argues that congressional committees, bicameralism and presidential veto make it virtually impossible for Congress to legislate on China, despite its intense preferences, and therefore Congress often turns to informal—but no less effective—means to exert influence on China policy, such as framing public opinion and generating situations that result in anticipated reactions by the executive branch or Beijing. Tao Xie is Assistant Professor at the American Studies Centre, Beijing Foreign Studies University, China. He holds a Ph.D. in political science. His primary research interests are U.S. Congress and American electoral behavior. 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Marketos Regime legitimacy in contemporary China Institutional change and stability Edited by Thomas Heberer and Gunter Schubert U.S.–China Relations China policy on Capitol Hill Tao Xie U.S.–China Relations China Policy on Capitol Hill Tao Xie First published 2009 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 270 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2008. “To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.” © 2009 Tao Xie All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Tao, Xie, 1973– U.S.–China relations : China policy on Capitol Hill / Tao Xie. p. cm—(Routledge contemporary China series) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. United States—Foreign relations—China. 2. China—Foreign relations—United States. 3. United States—Foreign relations—1945– 1989. 4. United States—Foreign relations—1989-. 5. United States. Congress—Decision making. 6. Taiwan—Strategic aspects. 7. United States—Commerce—China. 8. China—Commerce— United States. 9. Human rights—China. I. Title. II. Title: United States—China relations. E183.8.C5T36 2008 327.73051—dc22 2008014023 ISBN 0-203-89014-0 Master e-book ISBN ISBN10: 0–415–77688–0 (hbk) ISBN10: 0–203–89014–0 (ebk) ISBN13: 978–0–415–77688–2 (hbk) ISBN13: 978–0–203–89014–1 (ebk) To Zhang Can Contents List of figures List of tables Acknowledgments Introduction Congress and foreign policy 2 Why China? 5 Contributions of the book 9 Structure of the book 10 xi xiii xv 1 1 The new institutionalism and legislative behavior The new institutionalism 13 Determinants of roll call voting on foreign policy 19 Methodology 23 13 2 Congressional efforts to punish China Collection of China bills 27 Number and nature of China bills 29 What influences the ebb and flow of China bills? 34 26 3 Effects of congressional activism on China policy Bicameralism 43 Congressional committees 48 Presidential veto 50 More bark than bite? 52 Why so many China bills? 54 Does Congress matter in China policy? 55 43 4 Congress and U.S.–China trade relations Booming economic ties 60 60 x Contents Congress and U.S.–China Trade 63 Legislative battle over PNTR 65 78 5 Congress and Taiwan Historical ties between Congress and Taiwan 79 Congressional attempts to enhance U.S.–Taiwan relations 82 6 Congress and China’s human rights Before Tiananmen: China as the exception 101 Tiananmen: the dividing line 104 MFN renewal and congressional efforts to change human rights in China 108 100 7 Beyond the case of China Selection of cases 123 Theoretical expectations 129 122 8 Conclusion Legislative institutions and their impact on China policy 142 The international environment and Congress’s China policy 144 Determinants of roll call voting on foreign policy 145 Policy implications 149 A look into the future 154 142 Appendix: Sources Source of China bills and coding scheme 157 Sources of other quantitative data 157 157 Notes Bibliography Index 161 177 199 List of figures 2.1 Classification of China bills (including amendments), 1973–2006 2.2 Time trend of China bills (including amendments), 1973–2006 2.3 Favorability ratings of China on 10-point scale, 1954–2001 2.4 Favorability ratings of China on four-category scale, 1977–2006 3.1 House–Senate ratios for China bills and bills in general (excluding amendments), 93rd–109th Congresses 3.2 Number of China bills (excluding amendments) by policy type and chamber, 1973–2006 5.1 Time trend of Taiwan bills introduced in each chamber, 1973–2006 6.1 Bills concerning China’s human rights, 1989–2006 6.2 Time trend of bills relating to China’s MFN status, 1973–2006 7.1 U.S. trade deficit with Japan, 1962–2006 32 33 37 38 44 45 82 106 109 125 List of tables 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.2 3.3 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 6.1 6.2 House China bills by policy and type, 1973–2006 Senate China bills by policy and type, 1973–2006 Determinants of the number of China bills (excluding amendments) introduced in the House, 1973–2006 Determinants of the number of China bills (excluding amendments) introduced in the Senate, 1973–2006 Frequency of the number of China bills (excluding amendments) by chief sponsor and chamber, 1973–2006 Members of Congress who introduced ten or more China bills (excluding amendments), 1973–2006 Freestanding China bills enacted into law, 1973–2006 U.S.–China trade in goods, 1973–2006 U.S. imports of selected commodities from China in 1989–2005 Logit analysis of the House vote on HR 4444 Increases in probabilities associated with one standard deviation increase in independent variables (HR 4444) House roll call votes on the Taiwan Relations Act Senate roll call votes on the Taiwan Relations Act U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and Taiwan’s ranking among U.S. arms sales to foreign countries Logit analysis of the House vote on HR 2386 Increases in probabilities associated with one standard deviation increase in independent variables (HR 2386) Logit analysis of the House vote on HR 1838 Increases in probabilities associated with one standard deviation increase in independent variables (HR 1838) House roll call votes on joint resolutions to disapprove of China’s MFN, 1990–2001 Logit analysis of House votes to disapprove of China’s MFN under President Bush 29 31 39 41 46 47 53 61 62 72 73 85 86 89 92 92 94 95 110 115 xiv List of tables 6.3 Increases in probabilities associated with one standard deviation increase in independent variables (votes under Bush) 6.4 Logit analysis of House votes to disapprove of China’s MFN under President Clinton 6.5 Increases in probabilities associated with one standard deviation increase in independent variables (votes under Clinton) 7.1 Total U.S. trade and deficit with Japan, Canada, and Mexico, 1985–2006 7.2 U.S.–Japan trade and automotive deficit, 1986–2006 7.3 Total U.S. trade and deficit with Hungary, Romania, and Vietnam 7.4 House roll call votes on trade and MFN extension for selected countries 7.5 Logit analysis of House roll call votes on trade with Japan, Canada, and Mexico 7.6 Increases in probabilities associated with one standard deviation increase in independent variables (votes on Japan, Canada, and Mexico) 7.7 Logit analysis of House votes on extension of MFN to Romania, Hungary, and Vietnam 7.8 Increases in probabilities associated with one standard deviation increase in independent variables (votes on MFN extension to Romania, Hungary, and Vietnam) A.1 Examples of coding of China bills 115 117 118 124 126 130 132 133 134 138 139 158 Acknowledgments In the process of researching the book, I have accumulated an enormous debt to a number of individuals. Without their encouragement, support, advice, and critique, the book would never have evolved into what it is today. Jeff Jenkins offered a number of penetrating comments. Without his input, the book would have been much less alert to the complexities of congressional structures and procedures. The book also benefited from Victor Shih’s extensive knowledge of U.S.–China relations and international relations. Dennis Chong generously supported my training in quantitative methods. More than that, had it not been for his unfailing encouragement, I would have quit being a political scientist a long time ago. Sean Gailmard kindly helped me tackle many methodological questions. Each in his own way, John Bennett and Chris Bray made my life at Northwestern University more enjoyable. To Benjamin I. Page, I owe the most intellectual debt. Without his support, I would probably have not embarked on the project in the first place. His enthusiasm has sustained me throughout research and writing. He supervised the project from the beginning to the end, bringing to bear his enormous knowledge of American politics and guiding me through the art of academic writing. He certainly exemplifies the profound impact that a professor can have on students. Since we first met back in 2002, Jordan Jay Hillman has been an intellectual mentor and a fatherly figure to me. In addition to sharpening my thinking on many topics over numerous lunches which he generously paid for, he also invited me to have each Hanukkah and Passover dinner with his family. When I look back at the six years of doctoral study in the U.S., I am always grateful to Jay and his family. It was Professor Mei Renyi who inspired me to study American politics when I was a graduate student in Beijing ten years ago. Without his unwavering support, I would not have decided to pursue a doctorate. His insights into American politics have been a constant source of research ideas. Many former and current graduate students at Northwestern University helped me in a number of ways. In addition to livening up my social life, Julia Rabinovich was a great source of research ideas. Conservations with xvi Acknowledgments Jean-François Godbout often ended up producing some fascinating reflections on my own research. Birol Baskan and I often discussed a wide range of topics over a cup of coffee. Jiangnan Zhu, Kai Zeng, and Qi Zhang enriched my intellectual as well as culinary life. Special thanks go to librarians at the Government Publications Section of Northwestern University Library, particularly Jiuping Chen, Beth Clausen, Ann Janda, Kathleen Murphy, Louis Takacs. Because of their smiles and patience, digging through government documents became a more pleasant process. I especially want to thank Jiuping, who never complained about my frequent and unannounced visits to his office. The Graduate School at Northwestern University provided a Graduate Research Grant, which helped cover the cost of collecting China bills. The School of English and International Studies at Beijing Foreign Studies University provides an ideal environment for a junior faculty. However, neither of the two institutions bears any responsibility for the views expressed in the book. Many thanks are also due the editorial staff at Routledge. Peter Sowden convinced me of the importance of the project and encouraged me to pursue it further. Tom Bates was instrumental in shaping the book as it stands now. The two anonymous reviewers of the manuscript offered a number of trenchant comments which improved the quality of the book. A short version of Chapter 4 was published in American Politics Research, and a different version of Chapters 2–3 was published in Journal of Contemporary China. I thank the two journals for granting me the right to reprint portions of the two articles. My father was deprived of a good education, but insisted that his son get the best education possible. Without his sacrifice, devotion, and love, I would not have accomplished what I have. Zhang Can has been a really good sport about being the wife of a junior faculty. Without her love, care, and sacrifice, I would not have been able to finish the project on time. There is no better way to thank her than to dedicate my first book to her. Introduction Only in the case of Communist China has the Congress played a major role over a long period of time to confine narrowly the president’s means of maneuver. (Herbert Carroll 1965: 161) While the executive branch is constitutionally charged with the management of foreign policy, on several occasions the Congress has decisively intruded into the management of China policy. When the Congress has chosen to immerse itself, its impact has proven profound and long-lasting. (Michel Oksenberg 1986: 218) The United States and our allies must recognize that in the upcoming “Pacific Century” no country will play a larger role in shaping the future of Asia than China, and no single bilateral relationship in the region will be more important to the US than the Sino–American one. (Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) 1996) The U.S.–China relationship is arguably the most important international relationship in the world today. It involves one country that is the world’s foremost economic and military power, and another country that has the largest population and is enjoying rapid economic growth that could make it a great power in the near future. Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of annual trade, thousands of students and scholars traveling across the Pacific each year, and issues related to Taiwan, China’s human rights, and non-proliferation make the relationship “simultaneously extensive and contentious, mutually beneficial and profoundly controversial” (Harding 1995: 49). The U.S. Congress has been unusually active in the development of this important relationship. The Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, the China Aid Act of 1948, the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979, the annual congressional debates over the renewal of China’s Most Favored Nation trade status (MFN, now called Normal Trade Relations or NTR since 1998), and the legislative battle over granting China Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) all attest to congressional activism in China policy.1 Since 2005, 2 Introduction Congress has launched a series of initiatives pressuring Beijing to appreciate its allegedly undervalued currency. This record of legislative activism raises a number of crucial questions. Why is Congress so active in China policy? What are the causal factors that have influenced the collective policy of Congress, and what has influenced the legislative behavior of individual members? What overall impact has congressional activism had on U.S. China policy? Do the same dynamics that help explain congressional decision-making on U.S.–China relations also explain congressional policy-making generally? These are questions that this book attempts to answer. The first step toward answering these questions is to provide a brief survey of the literature on Congress and foreign policy so as to situate this study in proper context. Congress and foreign policy2 The relationship between the president and Congress in foreign policy is “one of the abiding mysteries of the American system of government” (Schlesinger and De Grazia 1967: 1). The founding fathers drafted a constitution that purportedly divides foreign policy powers between the president and Congress. In reality, what the framers created is a system of “separated institutions sharing [foreign policy] powers” (Neustadt 1990: 29). Powers shared are frequently contested and jealously guarded. They are the source of endless disputes, accusations, and confrontations between the two branches. Corwin (1948: 200) famously wrote, “the Constitution, considered only for its affirmative grants of power which are capable of affecting the issue, is an invitation to struggle for the privilege of directing American foreign policy.” Wilcox (1985: 38) concurred, “In some ways, our constitution is an invitation to disunity, for it divides the power in foreign policy between the two branches so as to give effect to our checks and balances system.” In Sundquist’s (1981: 16) words, the Constitution “put the two combatants [Congress and the president] in the ring and sounded the bell that sent them into endless battles.” Scholarly research on Congress’s role in foreign and defense policy has paid particular attention to three broad questions.3 What is the power of Congress in relation to the president?4 Why do members of Congress act as they do? How are decisions made in Congress? One school of thought contends that the president wins most of the battles against Congress. In proposing the two presidencies thesis, Wildavsky (1966: 7) asserted that “in the realm of foreign policy there has not been a single major issue on which Presidents, when they are serious and determined, have failed.” 5 To Spanier and Uslaner (1974: 69), “The President proposes, the President disposes.” Schlesinger’s (1973) condemnation of the imperial presidency also testifies to the dominance of the president over Congress in foreign policy.6 A number of factors are believed to be responsible for presidential dominance in foreign policy: executive monopoly of intelligence, the unitary nature of the presidency, presidential power to commit troops, public readiness to Introduction 3 rally around the flag, and the norm of deference among members of Congress (Corwin 1948; Crabb and Holt 1984; Dahl 1950; Robinson 1967; Spanier and Uslaner 1974; Wildavsky 1966). In a word, in this view, the president dominates foreign policy-making and Congress’s role is one of “legitimating, amending, or vetoing executive proposals” (Robinson 1967: 14), or “accepting, modifying, or rejecting executive policies” (Spanier and Uslaner 1974). Some scholars disagree; they argue that patterns of executive–legislative interactions in foreign policy are cyclic, with the pendulum swinging in one branch’s favor at one time and in the other branch’s favor at another. Peppers (1975: 462) contended that the two presidencies thesis “came at the end of the propresidency swing,” suggesting that there would be a reverse swing back to Congress. In reassessing Wildavsky’s two presidencies thesis, Sigelman raised an important question: “Are we witnessing a secular change or a momentary fluctuation in the balance of power between President and Congress?” His answer was unequivocal: “the pendulum of power often shifts. In crisis periods, power tends to gravitate toward the Presidency, but eventually Congress has always moved to reassert its positions” (Sigelman 1979: 1204). Continuing with his boxing metaphor, Sundquist (1981: 16) noted, “The president may appear as the heftier contestant, he cannot win every round; the balance will continue to shift back and forth.” Indeed, congressional assertiveness in foreign policy since the 1970s appears to support the pendulum thesis of executive-legislative relationship (Abshire and Nurnberger 1981; Forsythe 1988; Franck and Weisband 1979; Ripley and Lindsay 1993; Wildavsky 1991). Other scholars have proposed a contingency view of executive-legislative interactions in foreign policy.7 For them, the balance of power between the president and Congress is not fixed; instead it varies considerably from one policy area to another. Lindsay and Ripley (1993) are the most forceful advocates of the contingency view. Based on distinctions among policies made by previous scholars (Huntington 1961: 3–4; Lowi 1967: 324–325; Ripley and Franklin 1980: 23–24), they contended that presidential power “is at a maximum” in crisis policy, “less extensive” in strategic policy, but “at its weakest” in structural policy (Lindsay and Ripley 1993: 18–22).8 To put it a different way, the power of Congress tends to be at its strongest in structural policy, at its weakest in crisis policy, and in between the two extremes in strategic policy. Instead of ascertaining which branch prevails under what circumstances and why, another line of research has focused on the causal factors underlying foreign policy-related legislative behavior of individual members of Congress, particularly roll call voting.9 Inspired by Miller and Stokes’ (1963) path-breaking study of constituency influence on members of Congress, this line of research can be further divided into two major sections. The first section examines the determinants of members’ votes on defense spending, and the preponderance of evidence suggests that ideology, not constituency