Tài liệu The impact of foreign direct investment capital on the manufacturing industries in vietnam

Ministry of Education and Training THE RESEARCH IS COMPLETED AT NATIONAL ECONOMICS National Economics University UNIVERSITY
 Scientific Supervisor: Prof.Dr. Do Duc Binh DANG QUY DUONG Reviewer 1: THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT CAPITAL ON THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN VIETNAM Reviewer 2: Specialized Reasearch: International economics (External economics) Reviewer 3: Code: 62310106 The thesis will be reviewed and marked by Government Thesis Examination Committee SUMMARY OF DOCTORAL THESIS IN ECONOMICS At:………………… At…..On…….. You can read and refer more about the contents of research at: - State library - Library of National Economics University Hanoi - 2014 Introduction 1. Reasons to do the research The economic growth and development are always the aims that many countries around the world would like to achieve including Vietnam. Since Vietnam regained independence in 1975 and especially after renewal policy was implemented in 1986, the Party and State have set goals for economic development to the forefront with the orientation to 2020 that Vietnam will basically become a modern industrialized country. In order to achieve this objective, Vietnam needs to make the best use of existing resources and simultaneously force international integration in order to attract outside resources. In recent times, Vietnam has attempted to attract outside resources, mainly from foreign direct investment (FDI). Theories and practices show that FDI plays a very important role in the economic development of Vietnam. First, FDI contributes to the development of economic sectors through additional funding, technology transfer and restructuring the economy towards modernization and industrialization. The development of the economy will facilitate the growth of the entire economy as higher growth rate, creating more jobs, improving the workforce quality, infrastructure and raise the technology level etc which helps to elevate the position of Vietnam in the region and the world. At the national level, there have been many studies on the impacts of FDI on economic growth, economic restructuring, export promotion, infrastructure and workforce quality improvement such as the studies conducted by Nguyen Thi Tue Anh (2005), Tran Ngoc Thin (2010), Bui Thuy Van (2011) and Nguyen Tien Long (2012). However, at the sector level, the number of researches on the impacts of FDI on economic sectors is still modest. Besides, during the process of economic development, it is found that the development of the process and manufacture industries, also known as manufacturing industry, is a key factor to speed up economic growth rate. Industry contributes the largest amount of money to GDP so the growth of manufacturing industry decides the growth level of Vietnam economy. 1 Therefore, it can be affirmed that both FDI and the growth of the manufacturing industry are key factors to stimulate the economic growth. This leaves a question for us: Is there any relationship between FDI and the growth of the manufacturing industry? and to what extent? What is the role of FDI in developing the manufacturing industry? For answering these questions helps us allocate and use FDI reasonably as well as develop manufacturing industry, which contributes to the growth of Vietnam economy. In the world, there have been abundant of studies on the impact of FDI on the manufacturing industry. In Vietnam, there are a number of quantitative studies on the impact of FDI on the process industry such as the research performed by Le Quoc Hoi (2008), Nguyen Phi Lan (2008), Nguyen Ngoc Anh (2008). However, almost all studies in Vietnam on the impact of FDI on manufacturing industry usually tend to lean heavily toward one side: either quantitative analysis or qualitative analysis. In summary, up to now, there is no comprehensive and systematical study, combining both quantitative and qualitative methodology, on the relationship and the impact of FDI on the manufacturing industry. That is why I selected the topic "The impact of foreign direct investment capital on the manufacturing industries in Vietnam" for my thesis. 2. The aims of the research The purpose of the thesis is to analyse and assess the impact of FDI on the manufacturing industries in Vietnam. On this basis, the author proposing solutions to take advantage of the positive effects and mitigate the negative impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industries in Vietnam. Specifically, the research focuses on the following main points as below: - To formalize theories of FDI, FDI capital and the impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industries. - To analyse and assess the impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industries in Vietnam by using methodology of qualitative analyze and econometric models. - To analyze the causes affecting the impact of FDI capital on the manufacturing industries in Vietnam. - Based on the results of research and analysis, to propose solutions that utilize the positive effects and mitigate the negative impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industries in Vietnam. 2 3. The objects and scope 5.2. The findings, new suggestions drawn from the results and surveys of research 3.1. The objects of the research FDI capital contributes to productivity growth, export promotion and economic restructuring in the manufacturing industry in a reasonable way. The thesis studies the impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industries in Vietnam. 3.2. The scope of the research - Spatial research: The thesis studies the impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industries in Vietnam. - Time range: The manufacturing industries in Vietnam: from 1988 to 2013. 4. Research methodology The thesis has employed a combination of different research methods such as statistics, analysis and synthesis, modeling method, using references to clarify the contents of the thesis. The secondary data was collected from the General Statistics Office, Ministry of Industry and Trade and Foreign Investment Agency. The theoretical framework contains groups of statistical indicators and econometric models, used to assess the impacts of FDI capital on manufacturing industries on both direct and indirect aspect. 5. Contributions of the thesis 5.1. Academic and theoretical contributions The thesis has proved FDI capital impacts on the manufacturing industries on both aspects of direct and indirect. Direct impacts includes: (1) The impact on total capital; (2) The impact on the growth of the manufacturing industry; (3) The impact on economic restructuring in the manufacturing industry; (4) The impact on promoting export in manufacturing industry; (5) The impact on the contribution to the state budget and job creating in the manufacturing industry; (6) The impact on the formation of new industries in the manufacturing industry; (7) The impact on the formation and development of supporting industries for the manufacturing industry. Indirect impacts includes 4 transmission channels: (1) Competition channel by putting competitive pressure on enterprises in the manufacturing industry (2) Technology transfer and Research and Development; (3) Training and movement of human resources; (4) Vertical and horizontal linkages among enterprises. 3 In terms of levels: Manufacturing industries at level 2 and 3, the medium and lowtech manufacturing industries at level 3 are affected negatively by forward linkages and backward linkages among FDI firms and domestic firms, which is shown through output decline in these industries. Only the high-tech-3rd-level manufacturing industry is the exception because thanks to better internal resources and capabilities, domestic firms in this sector co-operate with FDI enterprises more efficiently than enterprises in the medium-and-low-3rd-level industries. The thesis has proposed some viewpoints of taking advantage of the positive effects and mitigating the negative effects of FDI capital on manufacturing industries, including some breakthrough points of view such as: (1) FDI capital is an important strategic capital for manufacturing industries; (2) The manufacturing industry need to consider modern technology transfer as one of the fundamental interests; (3) FDI capital in the manufacturing industry must play an important role in the training of human resources; (4) Do not distinguish between FDI firms and domestic enterprises; (5) Appreciate the linkages between FDI firms and domestic enterprises; (6) The industrial clusters supporting manufacturing industry have an important role to take advantage of the positive impacts of FDI capital; (7) Need to respect both attracting and using FDI capital effectively in manufacturing industries; (8) The FDI strategy of manufacturing industry need to be put in relation with the socio-economic policies. On those bases, the thesis proposes two groups of solutions: (i) The first is related to taking advantage of the positive impacts of FDI capital impact on the manufacturing industry in Vietnam. In which the breakpoints are: (1) strengthening the efficient of linkages and joint venture between enterprises in the manufacturing industry; (2) the development of industrial clusters supporting for the manufacturing industry; (3) boosting research and development (R & D) (ii) The second is related to taking measures for restricting the negative impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industry in Vietnam. In which innovative solutions are: (1) FDI policy to minimize attracting FDI capital into low-tech and low added value industries; (2) improving the efficiency of technology transfer activities; (3) the State support for the fledgling industries. 4 6. Organization of the research - FDI and spillover effect on knowledge and productivity Besides the introduction, conclusion, appendices and reference lists, the structure of the thesis is divided into four chapters as follows: Caves are one of the first people studying quantitatively on spillover effect. Since the study of the Caves, there are many studies on the spillover effect of FDI in the developing world, including Asia, Latin America. In the most general sense, almost all studies agree with the spillover effect of FDI on the manufacturing industry. However, the conclusions of these studies conflict each other because it is unclear that whether the spillover effect of FDI is positive or negative. Spillover effect depends on many factors such as the capacity of local businesses, the market share of foreign investment, the policies of the State and enterprises and others, and the studies have yet evaluated and compared the extent each factor to create spillover. Chapter 1: Overview of scientific work related to thesis topic. Chapter 2: Rationale for FDI capital and model for assessing the impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industries. Chapter 3: The current situations of FDI capital impacts on the manufacturing industries in Vietnam. Chapter 4: Viewpoints and solutions for exploring the positive impacts and mitigating the negative impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industries in Vietnam. Chapter 1 LITERATURE REVIEW 1.1. Literature review conducted in the world In the world, science works studying on FDI in the manufacturing industry are very diverse, abundant and on many different aspects. To set premise for research, the thesis will present an overview of the main research points relating to the relationship, the impacts of FDI on the manufacturing industry on some main aspects such as imported technology, research and development, the spillover effect, vertically associated linkages, technology selection, training and salary for workers in the manufacturing industry in the developing countries. - FDI in relation to imported technology and local research & development India is a country of many studies on the relationship between imported technology and local research & development (R&D). These works show that the relationship between imported technology and local R&D is both supplement and alternative. However, the findings also give many overlapping and unclear conclusion about this relationship. - FDI and the linkages of firms The above studies agree that the relationship between domestic enterprises and foreign enterprises will affect growth, productivity and export ... of enterprises. However, gap in the above study has not determined at what degree, the linkage proves effective and at what degree the linkage need to reach in order to take full advantage of the benefits that FDI brings. - FDI and exports of local manufacturing industries The studies on evaluating the role of foreign ownership on the export of manufacturing industry have given quite different results. To explain this, two important points can be mentioned: export-oriented FDI plays an important role in improving the export performance of the host country, and different countries have different policies to attract FD, including export-oriented FDI. Although the conclusions of the work are diverse on many different aspects, all show that each country's policy on FDI have a large impact on exports, export promotion, export expansion of that country. - FDI with technology selection and local industry All studies on the technology selection have concluded that technology affects exports, the growth of the local industry. However, the level of impacts mainly depends on the technology policy and the absorbsion ability in the industry of the host country. - FDI with labour and wages The research on labor and wages give similar comments about the difference in the 5 6 salaries between foreign firms and local ones. The distinction between unskilled labors and expertise has provided a good basis for explaining this difference because it helps to take human capital in the past into account. 1.2. Literature review conducted in Vietnam Since the foreign investment law came into effect in 1988, studies on FDI began to appear in Vietnam. In particular, from 2000 onward, the recent researches on FDI increased rapidly both in terms of qualitative and quantitative research. The studies related to evaluation of the impacts of FDI on the economic growth, the productivity of the economic sectors key industrial sector of Vietnam, therefore, it is necessary to have a comprehensive study on the impacts of FDI in this industry. This thesis will evaluate comprehensively the impacts of FDI on manufacturing industry in Vietnam by using both qualitative and quantitative analysis with assessing the impacts of FDI from two angles of the direct and indirect. CHAPTER 2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND MODEL FOR ASSESSSING THE IMPACTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT CAPITAL ON THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES From 2000 onwards, Vietnam has witnessed the appearance of many quantitative studies on assessing the impacts of FDI. Initially, they were the assessments of the FDI impacts on the growth of the economy, then developed into more detailed studies on the impacts of FDI on the economic sectors. After that, there appeared many more detailed studies on the spillover effects of FDI such as assessing the impacts of FDI on productivity, wages, technology transfer, level of linkages... 2.1. The Theories of foreign direct investment capital The studies related to attracting and using FDI There are many definitions and aspects of FDI, but generally said that: FDI is the process of moving the long-term capital from one country to another, foreign investors invest a certain capital ratio and directly involve in the production and business management in relation to the capital they invest in order to achieve longterm benefits not only in terms of economic but also the political and socio-cultural aspect. The qualitative studies on FDI often research on attracting and using FDI. These studies offer some solutions to attract FDI, such as creating a favorable investment environment, preferential policies for foreign investors and giving recommendations to the State about the innovation mechanism, decentralization of the licensing and management of using FDI. Recently, to increase the reliability, the qualitative studies often incorporate quantitative factors. The studies on the direct impacts of FDI These studies focus on the analysis of the impacts of FDI on economic restructuring, export promotion, job creation and contribution to the state budget. It can be said that, since 2005, the domestic studies on FDI have shown a decrease in gap between qualitative and quantitative method by using combination of two methods in research. Foreign direct investment (FDI) always closely links with foreign direct investment capital. Therefore, in order to make the general theory of FDI, first of all, the thesis will focus and clarify the theoretical issues about the concept of FDI. 2.1.1. The FDI concept 2.1.2. Concept and characteristics of FDI capital Because the concept of foreign direct investment is the movement of capital, it can be suggested that FDI and FDI capital are linked together. The conception of FDI capital: FDI is a kind of capital formed in the process of foreign direct investment, it is also the capital moved from one country to another by foreign investors. Foreign investors will be directly involved in managing business and production related to this moving capital with the aim of obtain long-term benefits not only in terms of economic aspect but also other related benefits.. Through a review of the studies on FDI, we can see that there are many qualitative and quantitative studies related to FDI in Vietnam. There also have been some quantitative studies assessing the impacts of FDI on productivity and growth in the manufacturing industry. However, the manufacturing industry has been and will be a Characteristics of FDI capital: (1) FDI capital can be expressed in many different forms such as cash, land, machinery, equipment, inventions, patents, trade secret, trademark; (2) FDI capital is the long-term capital but a loan; (3) FDI capital has a 7 8 minimum and maximum level that a foreign investor has to contribute; (4) FDI capital link directly with the disposal of foreign investors; (5) The ratio of FDI capital regulate dividing profits that foreign investors are entitled to; (6) FDI capital often move into areas that have many priorities and advantages of the host country; (7) FDI capital may affects the economy of host country positively or negatively; (8) FDI capital is more common and profitable than indirect investment capital, it means that FDI is also risker. 2.1.3. Some theories relating to FDI capital The thesis cover some theories such as the theory of market power; the eclectic theory; the marginal productivity theory of capital in order to clarify the motive to invest abroad of countries and multinational firms. These theories will support analyzing the impacts of FDI on the manufacturing industries. 2.2. The impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industries This thesis examined the impacts of FDI on manufacturing industries in two dimensions (direct and indirect) through channels to manufacturing industries. 2.2.1. The direct impacts of FDI on the manufacturing industries 2.2.1.1. The impact on the total investment capital in the manufacturing industry FDI capital not only helps to supplement capital in the manufacturing industry but also stimulate investment in this sector. This is very important for the manufacturing industry in the developing countries like Vietnam. 2.2.1.2. The impact on the growth of the manufacturing industry FDI capital is one of the inputs besides other resources like natural resources and human resource. As an important input, the scale of FDI capital in manufacturing industry will affect the scale of the output. In other words, FDI capital has a direct impact on the growth of manufacturing industry. 2.2.1.3. The impact on economic restructuring in the manufacturing industry FDI capital flows into the industry from other countries, multinational firms, different sectors, which alters the overall capital structure in each industry and then alters structure and economic restructuring in the manufacturing industry 2.2.1.4. The impact on export promotion in the manufacturing industry Output growth not only meets domestic demand but also contributes to promote exports, this is the next step of development because when the manufacturing industry meets domestic demand or takes advantage of comparative advantages to obtain more and more profits. Furthermore, FDI enterprises with multiple relationships with international partners in global market with the brand prestige will be an important channel for promoting the exports of surplus products. 2.2.1.5. The impact on the contribution to the state budget and job creation for the national economy After receiving FDI capital, the manufacturing industry has continuously expanded production scale, employment, thereby creating greater added value and more jobs for the economy, increasing more revenues contributed to the state budget and reducing the pressure on increasing the number of jobs in the economy. 2.2.1.6. Impact on the formation of new industries in the manufacturing industry FDI flows moving from the developed countries to the developing countries are characterized by often associated with technology, know-how and technology, betterqualified workforce than developing countries. FDI capital has helped developing countries to form new industries, develop and connect the fragmented industries in the developing countries. Developing countries which make good use of FDI will quickly complete the process of industrialization and modernization. 2.2.1.7. Impact on the formation and development of supporting industries for manufacturing industry FDI flows from developing countries, multinational firms into developing countries with the aim of finding and increasing profits. They can only earn sustainable profits when the industry in developing countries reaches a certain threshold of manufacturing capabilities, production cooperation and competition in the international market. Thus, FDI flows are not directed at their main production industry but moving into the supporting industries in order to be able to search for and exploit the maximum profit. This will help the developing countries have a great opportunity to shape and develop the support industries. 2.2.2. The indirect impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industry In terms of indirect impacts, FDI capital affects industry through the following 9 10 channels: 2.2.2.1. Competitive channel through creating competitive pressure for firms in the manufacturing industry Positively speaking, the presence of FDI enterprises can stimulate local businesses for innovating technology and creating new initiatives. Negatively speaking, FDI enterprises with superior dominance have dominated the market of local businesses and force them to cut down production scale and maintain production activities at non-optimal scale, which make the productivity decrease. 2.2.2.2. Technology transfer and research and development In order to use transferred technology effectively, both FDI and local businesses should have to research and develop technologies, modify technologies to suit the local environment. The research may take place abroad or locally, but common purpose is to serve local production of technology-receiving country. 2.2.2.3. Investment in developing human resource and labor movement FDI enterprises help in training highly-qualified workforce for local businesses. Initially, human resources are trained to become professional and skilled ones. After that, some will be moved to work for local businesses and so they become highquality human resources of local businesses. 2.3. The statistical indicator groups of direct impacts and model of assessing indirect impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industries 2.3.1. The groups of statistical indicators of the FDI’s direct impacts on the manufacturing industry 2.3.1.1. The statistical indicators reflecting the scope of FDI capital in the manufacturing industry: they are the absolute indicators, calculated by money, indicate the number of FDI projects, total value of FDI capital and average value of FDI capital per project. 2.3.1.2. The statistical indicators reflecting the structure of FDI capital in the industry: FDI structure is divided by the form of investment criteria, investment sectors, economic sectors, economic zones, investment partners. 2.3.1.3. The statistical indicators reflecting the effect of FDI capital on the manufacturing industry: the proportion of gross output of the manufacturing industry sponsored by FDI in total FDI capital; the proportion of export value of FDI sector to the realized capital in the manufacturing industry; the proportion of contribution to the state budget of FDI sector to the realized capital in the manufacturing industry. 2.3.1.4. The statistical indicators reflecting the impacts of FDI on the manufacturing industry: promoting growth and economic restructuring and export. 2.3.2. The model of assessing the impacts of FDI on the manufacturing industry 2.2.3.4. Linkages of firms Horizontal linkages: Links between FDI firms and domestic firms in the same industry. For local businesses, they can increase market share, learn experiences and expand business co-operation. Vertical linkages: Links between FDI firms and domestic firms in different industry. Forward linkage is a form of vertical linkage in case the FDI enterprises are the providers for domestic enterprises. Backward linkage is a form of vertical linkage in case FDI enterprises are the distributors of domestic enterprises. Local businesses can also benefit from the increase in demand of their products, the expansion of consumption market and thus they will increase production scale and achieve economies of scale. To assess the impact of FDI on the manufacturing industry in both aspects of direct and indirect, the thesis uses 4 groups of statistical indicators as described above and applies econometric models of impacts of FDI capital. This will also be the basis to use a combination of the two research methods of qualitative and quantitative in assessing the impacts of FDI to the manufacturing industry. Regression Model: Y jt = α + β1 K jt + β 2 L jt + β3 horizontal jt + β 4 Backward jt + β5 Forw jt + ε jt LnYjt = α + β1 ln K jt + β 2 ln L jt + β 3 horizontal jt + β 4 Backward jt + β 5 Forw jt + ε jt (2.1) (2.2) Yjt: Output of industry j in year t, Kjt: Capital of industry j in year t; Ljt: Labor of industry j in year t. Horizontaljt: horizontal linkages between domestic firms and FDI firms of industry j in year t, it shows the relationship between FDI firms and domestic firms in the same 11 12 industry j. 3.1.2. The role of the manufacturing industry in the economy Backwardjt: Backward linkages between domestic firms and FDI firms of industry j in year t, in this case FDI enterprises are downstream buyers of domestic enterprises. The increase in backward variable shows that domestic suppliers are involved more in the production and business activites of FDI enterprises. Compared to the whole economy, the number of employees working in the manufacturing industry always accounts for over 15%, especially nearly 20% in some periods. Manufacturing industries account for nearly 50% of the number of enterprises. Compared to the entire industry, the proportion of employees and enterprises is always so far the greatest at over 90%. Forwardjt: Forward linkages between domestic firms and FDI firms of industry j in year t, in this case FDI firms are upstream suppliers to domestic firms. Thus, the value of vertical linkage variable increases in case the output of foreign firms and the proportion of intermediate products that foreign firms supply to domestic firms increased. 2.3. The factors affecting the impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industries (1) the investment environment; (2) the strategy for developing the manufacturing industry; (3) the characteristics of the manufacturing industry; (4) the characteristics of international investors and (5) the characteristic of movements of FDI inflows. CHAPTER 3 THE CURRENT SITUATIONS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT CAPITAL IMPACTS ON THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN VIETNAM 3.1. Overview of the manufacturing industry in Vietnam 3.1.1. The manufacturing industry in Vietnam “Manufacturing industry” is the term commonly used to refer to the processing and fabricating industries. By this means, the manufacturing industry in Vietnam includes 24 industrial sectors; each is encoded by two numbers according to the sub-sector panel of the General Statistics Office (GSO). Food products and beverages; tobacco products; textiles; etc; tanning and dressing leather; wood and wood products; paper and paper products; publishing, printing etc; refined petroleum etc; chemical products; rubber and plastic products; non-metallic mineral products; basic metals; fabricated metal products (except machinery and equipment); machinery (incl. Office electrical; vehicles; transport equipment; furniture; other manufacturing; repairing, maintaining and installing of machinery and equipment. 13 3.1.3. The role of the manufacturing industry in industry sector The contribution of the manufacturing sector in the industry tends to increase during the period from 2008 to 2013 and always accounts for over 80%. Until 2013, this proportion had reached a high of 88.23%. The growth rate of gross output in the manufacturing sector is always higher than the growth rate of the manufacturing industry’s contribution to GDP. 3.1.4. The role of the manufacturing industry in exports From 2008 to 2013, the proportion of processed and refined products always stands at above 50% of Vietnam export structure classified according to the SITC, in 2012 and 2013, this ratio turns respectively 69% and 70%; light industry and handicraft always account for over 75%, by 2013 the proportion has reached a peak at 82.4%. 3.2. Foreign direct investment in the manufacturing industry in Vietnam In this section, the thesis will analyze and gather statistics on the attraction of FDI into the Vietnam manufacturing industry. This is the basis for the assessment of the FDI impacts on the manufacturing industry. 3.2.1. Attracting FDI into Vietnam By 15/12/2013, the manufacturing industry has attracted the largest FDI capital with 8620 projects equivalent to 122.71 billion US dollars, accounting for 53.32% of the total registered FDI capital in Vietnam from 1988 to present. 3.2.2. Attracting FDI into the manufacturing industry In this section, the thesis will go into a detailed analysis of attracting FDI into the manufacturing industry based on timeline, forms, geographical areas and technology degrees. 3.2.2.1. Foreign direct investment in the manufacturing industries in Vietnam over the years 14 During the period 2000-2013, the amount of registered FDI capital in the manufacturing industry tends to increase, the proportion of FDI in the manufacturing industry in total registered FDI capital in Vietnam was commonly at 60%. By 2012, this proportion was over 70% and in particular in 2013 the percentage of registered capital in the manufacturing industry reached a peak at 86.24%., which equivalent to 11.7 billion USD; 18.6 billion USD in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The number of FDI projects in 2012 and 2013 are 561 and 662 respectively. 3.2.2.2. Foreign direct investment in Vietnam manufacturing industry in the form of investment In recent times, FDI inflows into the manufacturing industry are mostly in the form of 100% foreign investment. By 31/12/2013, the proportion of projects and registered capital of 100% foreign investment are 82,73% and 82,73% respectively; the corresponding figures of joint ventures are 14.96% and 28.25%; the remaining belongs to cooperation contracts, BOT, BT and BTO. 3.2.2.3. Foreign direct investment in the Vietnamese manufacturing industry in local areas Up to now, there are 25 provinces that have attracted over 1 billion USD of registered FDI capital in the manufacturing industry, accounting for 93.48% of the total registered FDI in this sector. FDI mainly concentrates in the two major cities of HCMC and Hanoi, and the vicinity of these cities. The mountainous or remote provinces, the amount of FDI capital flowing into the manufacturing industry is very small. 3.2.2.4. The proportion of FDI capital in the Vietnamese manufacturing industry according to the technological level of industry The low-level manufacturing industries: In general, FDI inflows in these industries tend to decrease over the period from 2000 to 2012. However, this proportion remains high in some fabricating, food processing and textile industries. The medium-level manufacturing industries: Beside the metal production industry, only the industry of manufacturing products from rubber and plastic attracted high and stable proportion of FDI capital over the period 2000-2012. 2011 and 2012, this ratio was above 10% and remained highly stable in the following years. The registered FDI proportion of remaining industries is still low, which is inconsistent with the priority development of high-tech industry in the period of industrialization and modernization. In 2012, 4 out of 8 high-level manufacturing industries had the ratio of register FDI capital under 1%. 3.3. The current situations of the FDI capital impacts on the manufacturing industry in Vietnam 3.3.1. The current situations of the direct impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industries in Vietnam 3.3.1.1. The impact on the growth of the manufacturing industry FDI sector has always contributed more than 30% of gross output of the manufacturing industry. From 2010 up to now, this proportion has remained high at 40% or more. 3.3.1.2. The impact on economic restructuring in the manufacturing industry The proportion of gross output in the FDI sector classified by the level in the period from 2005 to 2011: despite being at low level, the food the manufacturing industry accounts for the highest yields in the FDI sector, during the period of 2005-2012, this ratio remained stable at the highest point (above 14%). Regarding sectors with the ratio over 8%, the high-tech industry has two branches and the low-tech industry has two branches, whereas the medium-level industry has no branch. The proportion of gross output of the FDI sub-manufacturing industries in the total gross output of these during the period from 2005 to 2011: In almost all the highlevel industries, the gross output ratio of the FDI sector are above 40%; not any medium-level industries have the ratio over 50% ; considering the low-tech industries, there are two branches that FDI gross output account for over 60% of the total, they are the other the manufacturing industry and the leather and related products manufacturing. In the remaining industries, this proportion is mainly below 40%. 3.3.1.3. The impact on export promotion in the manufacturing industry The high-level manufacturing industries: Manufacturing of electronic products, computer and optical products are the sectors that have the largest proportion of registered FDI capital compared with other high-level manufacturing industries. In The manufacturing industries with low-technological content such as textiles, footwear and furniture, the FDI export proportion of these sectors in comparison with export value is fairly high and in the range of 50% - 70%. This proportion of the manufacturing industries with high-technological content such as electronics and 15 16 electrical equipment is also very high - above 90% and even just under 100% in some years. According to the Foreign Investment Agency, FDI capital accounts for about 25% of the total investment capital in the manufacturing industry for the period from 1988 to 2013. Besides, FDI capital stimulates the increase in investment in the manufacturing industry; for example, the manufacture and assembly of motorcycles and spare parts. FDI invested into this sector increased by 1.5 times, but domestic investment has increased by 7.9 times during the same period. The formation and development of the electronics supporting industry: Recently, many major electronics manufacturers such as Samsung, Canon, Intel, Foxconn ... undertook to invest in Vietnam. Most recently in 2009, Samsung had invested $670 million to conduct the first mobile phone manufacturing complex in Vietnam (Bac Ninh) (later raised to $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion at present) and continuously invested $2 billion to build the 2nd complex in Thai Nguyen. According to Samsung, there are about 4 Korean firms that have signed commitments and they are building the plants. In addition, about 10 other Korean satellite firms of Samsung are promoting investment projects to build factories producing spare parts to supply to Samsung. 3.3.1.5. The impact on the formation of new industries in the manufacturing industry The formation and development of the autos supporting industry The formation and development of the automobile industry in Vietnam Typically, Toyota Vietnam has attempted to invite successfully other firms supplying components owned by Toyota to invest in Vietnam as Denso, Toyota Boshoku Hai Phong, Hai Phong Toyota Gosei and others to produce parts and at the same time export auto parts to the whole world, the supplier has provided Toyota more than 300 diverse categories of details, including the normal details and the functional details requiring high technology and quality. 3.3.1.4. The impact on additional investment capital in the manufacturing industry By the end of 2009, there were 17 firms operating in the automotive assembly industry in Vietnam. The annual gross output continuously grows from 18,000 vehicles in 2001 to 120,000 ones in 2009, within 9 years the output of Vietnamese automobile industry had increased by 6.7 times. However, since 2010, auto production has showed sign of a slowdown and a downward trend. In 2010, the number of assembled autos was 112.3 thousand, which dropped to 108.2 thousand units in 2011, and until 2012 only 99.2 thousand autos was assembled. The formation and development of the electronic industry in Vietnam With an annual average growth rate of 20-25%, the electronics industry has more than 500 enterprises accounting for 1/3 of the FDI enterprises. The export value of electronics industry was about $100 million in 1996 and in recent times, this figure has increased significantly. According to statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in the first 9 months of 2013, the export value of phones and accessories reached $15.5 billion, increased 79.8% compared to 2012. Computers, electronic products and components reached $7.7 billion, increased by 43.9% compared to the same period in 2012. Although there are about 500 enterprises in the electronics industry, the investment in this sector still poses many drawbacks such as limited investment capital, spontaneous, incoherent and unprofessional operation. 3.3.1.7. The impact on the contribution to the state budget and creating jobs for the economy of the manufacturing industry The FDI enterprises play a huge role in creating jobs and contributing to the State Budget. By 31/12/2013, the FDI sector had created 2.2 million jobs, about 70% of this came from the Vietnamese manufacturing industry. In addition to solve job problem, the FDI sector helps to increase the contribution to the State Budget of the manufacturing industry. By 31/12/2013, this sector had contributed $19.5 billion to the state budget, in which FDI-manufacturing industry accounted for about 50%. 3.3.2. The current situations of indirect impacts of FDI capital on the manufacturing industries in Vietnam through the channels 3.3.2.1. Competition channels - creating pressure on domestic firms to improve productivity 3.3.1.6. The impact on the formation and development of supporting industries in the manufacturing industry In the manufacturing industry, the joint venture local businesses are more productive than the normal ones. The impact of FDI through competition channels is very clear in the Vietnamese textile industry. For example, the Garco 10 Firm has invested much for renovation, advanced technology and highly-skilled workers recruitment in 17 18 order to convert the production of common garments to the manufacturing and trading of products that are expensive but of higher quality. level 2 consists of 23 branches and the industry level 3 consists of 59 branches. 3.3.3.2. Results of regression estimates by ordinary differential equations 3.3.2.2. The investment in developing human resources and labor movement The estimation for the 23 manufacturing industries level 2 in Vietnam, including 161 observations classified into 13 groups shows that: The test result from the FE model shows that the coefficients of L, K are positive and have highly statistical significance at 1%, which means when labor and investment capital in the industries level 2 increases, the yield in these industries also increases. Forward linkages variables (forw), backward linkages variables (back) have negative coefficients and have high statistical significance at 1%, which reflects the linkages between FDI firms and domestic enterprises in the industries level 2 makes the yield of these industries decline. Coefficient of horizontal linkages (Hori) is positive but not statistically significant, there has been no evidence proving that the presence of FDI firms in the industry level 2 increases the output of this sector. The estimation result for the 59 manufacturing industries level 3, including 410 observations classified into 59 groups shows that: The 2011 Industrial Investment Report showed that about 11% of FDI enterprises cooperating with domestic enterprises to improve the quality of such firms. Thus, beside the goal of enhancing the quality of FDI enterprises, a larger proportion of these enterprises set goals to improve the quality of domestic enterprises and specially focus on training human resources. 3.3.2.3. The linkages between firms According to the 2011 Industrial Investment Report, the proportion of input supply of local businesses was 26.6%. This level is relatively low, in the developed countries; it is averagely above 50% for all industries. In some specific industries, this ratio can be up to 90%. Along with this conclusion, according to the Japanese External Trade Organization (JETRO), the current rate of inputs materials and spare parts purchase that Japanese firms found in Vietnam reach 28%, meanwhile in Indonesia, Thailand and China, this rate is 43%, 53% and 61% respectively. The trending forward linkages as well as backward linkages when domestic firms accounted for 20.8% of sales of FDI firms while accounted for over 33% of total FDI’s customers. 3.3.2.4. The channel of technology transfer and research and development The number of FDI projects that have technology transfer contracts accounts for a small proportion, less than 7% of the total FDI projects being implemented manufacturing business in Vietnam. In addition, only 5-6% FDI enterprises using advanced technologies, 80% using medium technology and some using outdated technology. In the sectors level 3, the coefficient of the variables L, K are positive and highly statistically significant at 1%. The coefficient of Hori is positive but not statistically significant. Similar to the sectors level 2, the coefficients of Backwards and forwards variables are negative and statistically significant at 1% and 5%, which continuously reflects the negative impact of the linkages between FDI and domestic firms in level 3 on output decrease. The estimation result for the manufacturing industries level 3 classified by level (high, medium and low) 3.3.3. Applying the econometric model of assessing the impacts of FDI on the manufacturing industries in Vietnam The test results show that in the low-tech industries level 3, Forward and Backward variables have negative coefficients and the statistical significance o 5%. The linkages between FDI firms and domestic firms in the sectors level 3 make the output of these industries decline. For the medium-tech industries level 3, the Back and Hori variables have negative coefficients and highly statistical significance at 1%. The test results are greatly different between the high-tech industries level 3 because the backward and forward linkages variables are not statistically significant at 5%. 3.3.3.1. Data description 3.3.3.3. Summary of estimation results In order to assess the impacts of FDI on the manufacturing industry, the business dates surveyed in the period of 2003-2009 were aggregated and classified by the categories of manufacturing industries level 2 and level 3. In particular, the industry The variables of labor (L) and capital (K) have positive coefficients and statistical significance in both level 2 and level 3 sectors, reflecting capital and labor have a positive impact on increasing the output of the manufacturing industry. 19 20 Enterprises in the manufacturing industry in FDI sector invest in R&D more than domestic firms, especially in sectors with high technological level. The Horizongtal variable doesn’t have positive coefficient but no statistical significance in the level 2 and level 3 sectors, there is any evidence proving that the presence of foreign parties has positive impact on output increase in the manufacturing industry. The variables of Forward linkages (forw) and backward linkages (Back) have negative coefficients and statistical significance for almost all the cases in the industry level 2 and entire level 3. The coefficients of these variables indicate no statistical significance in the high-qualified industries level 3. Thus, it can be affirmed that forward linkages and backward linkages (vertical linkages) between FDI firms and domestic firms have negative impacts on the output decline of the manufacturing industry. This is due to the internal resources and capabilities of most local firms are still weak, so they cannot effectively cooperate with FDI enterprises. 3.4. Overall assessment of the impacts of foreign direct investment on the manufacturing industry in Vietnam 3.4.1. Achievements: (1) The gross output of the manufacturing industry has increased; (2) Promoting export and economic restructuring in the manufacturing industry; (3) Contributing to the formation and development of new industries; (4) Improving the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry; (5) Contributing to train skilled human resources; (6) Contributing to the technology transfer; (7) Contributing to the research and development. 3.4.2. Weaknesses: (1) The impact of FDI on productivity and output of the manufacturing industry is low; (2) The growth rate of the export value is still low; (3) The supporting industries the manufacturing industry remain underdeveloped; (4) Investment in research and development (R & D) of domestic enterprises in the manufacturing industry are modest; (5) FDI cannot create tight and effective linkages between enterprises in the manufacturing industry in Vietnam; (6) The transfer of modern technology in FDI is still limited; (7) The competition effect tends to cause negative impacts. 3.4.3. The causes of weaknesses: (1) FDI policy is inadequate; (2) The human resources of local enterprises in the manufacturing industry is still insufficient in quantity and poor in quality; (3)The industrial clusters supporting for the manufacturing industry are underperforming capabilities; (4) The potential of enterprises in the manufacturing industry is still weak; (5) The technological level is still low; (6) The infrastructure serving the development of the manufacturing industry are asynchronous. 21 CHAPTER 4 VIEWPOINTS, SOLUTIONS TO TAKING ADVANTAGE OF POSITIVE IMPACTS AND MITIGATE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT CAPITAL ON THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN VIETNAM 4.1. International and internal context 4.1.1. International context To clearly analyze the world context, the thesis analyzes the context of the following international issues: (1)The trend of shifting global FDI flows; (2) The trend of shifting FDI in industry and service; (3) The adjustments in the development model of China and ASEAN. 4.1.2. Internal context To clearly analyze of the internal context, the thesis analyzes the following issues: (1) The economic development strategy until 2020; (2) Make the international integration commitment; (3) Some of the internal factors of the economy 4.2. The viewpoints of utilize the positive impacts, mitigate the negative impact of FDI on the manufacturing industry in Vietnam (1) FDI is an important strategic capital for manufacturing industries; (2) The manufacturing industry need to consider modern technology transfer as one of the fundamental interests; (3) FDI in the manufacturing industry must play an important role in the training of human resources; (4) Do not distinguish between FDI firms and domestic enterprises; (5) Appreciate the linkages between FDI firms and domestic enterprises; (6) The industrial clusters supporting manufacturing industry have an important role to take advantage of the positive impacts of FDI; (7) Need to respect both attracting and using FDI effectively in manufacturing industries; (8) The FDI strategy of manufacturing industry need to be put in relation with the socio-economic policies. 4.3. The orientation and goals of attracting foreign direct investment into the manufacturing industry in Vietnam 4.3.1. Strategic development of the manufacturing industry - To focus on developing the potential manufacturing industries to compete in the future. 22 - To attract foreign direct investment to meet the requirements of industrialization and modernization of the country. - To implement technology import policy, should be seen as one of the strategic policies to quickly obtain advanced and modern technology. - To invest in developing human resources for the industry. 4.3.2. General orientation for attracting FDI Based on the situational analysis of FDI in recent times, the internal and international context in the future, FDI should be directed to the following directions: (1) Moving slowly to appreciate the structure and quality of FDI; (2) Attracting low-carbon FDI (FDI Green). (3) Attracting and effectively exploiting FDI of modern technology; (4) Attracting FDI to developing high-quality human resources; (5) Attracting FDI to strengthen linkages with local businesses, connect and leverage the value chain. 4.3.3. The orientation of attracting foreign direct investment in the manufacturing industry Selectively develop, prioritize the development of products with competitive advantages, thrive supporting industries for the manufacturing industry. 4.3.4. The goals of attracting foreign direct investment into the manufacturing industry To serving the renovation of growth model; to promote competitiveness, to produce some stages using high technology in Vietnam, FDI should be responsible for widely and deeply harmonious development of the manufacturing industry and the whole economy. Need to attract FDI into the manufacturing industries with high technological content such as oil refining, chemical, electronics and equipment producing industries. The manufacturing industry in Vietnam should also attract the investment of MNCs firms. 4.4.1.2. Strengthening the efficient linkages and joint venture between firms in the manufacturing industry - Raise awareness of international production linkages - Raise the technological level in a variety of methods, thereby facilitating participating and expanding international relations. - Select partners and form of relevant linkage. 4.4.1.3. Developing industrial clusters supporting for the manufacturing industry First of all, there should be proper awareness about industrial clusters. Second, the implementation of the industrial cluster development is as sequential as forming industrial zones: building capacity for industrial parks, attracting major businesses and the next is attracting more businesses involved. Third, when completely building the capacity of industrial parks (infrastructure, human resources ...), it is necessary to have a clear incentive policy in order to attract major businesses; the majority of these businesses are FDI enterprises. Fourth, in the next phase, Vietnamese enterprises need to replace FDI to supply spare parts directly to the FDI assembly enterprises. 4.4.1.4. Promoting research and development In the immediate future, it is necessary to form and develop the technology market, especially the type of technology and equipment markets; create mechanisms to encourage the production base application of high-tech products. 4.4. The solutions for utilizing the positive impacts and mitigating the negative impacts of foreign direct investment capital on the manufacturing industry in Vietnam State increases the capital and human resources support for enterprises in the technological application, renewal, purchase and improvements. At the same time, enterprises themselves should have to enhance additional capital for research and development, increase the average expenditures of research and development. 4.4.1. The solutions for utilizing the positive impacts of foreign direct investment capital on the manufacturing industry in Vietnam 4.4.1.5. The policy of developing human resources serving the manufacturing industry 4.4.1.1. Attracting FDI into the manufacturing industries with high technological content and attracting MNCs/TNCs that have the potential of technology into the manufacturing industry. Based on the strategic development of the manufacturing industry, selecting the key industries to focus on training human resources in terms of both technology and business management knowledge. Focused and selective training and avoiding 23 24 training spread. Besides, the vocational training needs to incorporate effectively and appropriately theoretical teaching and practical training in the factories. Need to train more skilled engineers, having capabilities of business and production management. To boost the training of middle level managers. International cooperation in training is considered as the important and necessary measures in the development of human resources. Increasing investment in science and technology and human resources training are necessary. 4.4.1.6. The policy on supporting the development of science and technology To boost technology and business incubators based on technology; implement technology import policy; strengthen technological cooperation with foreign countries. 4.4.1.7. Infrastructure improvement Infrastructure building needs to focus on the two routes of economic development is Hanoi - Hai Phong and Ho Chi Minh City - Vung Tau. Developing a comprehensive system of sea, river, railway and air transport. is necessary for the government to support them in some areas such as marketing, infrastructure, science and technology, information, finance, and human resources training. 4.4.2.4. Supporting small and medium enterprises in the manufacturing industry - Capital support Therefore, the establishment of credit guarantee funds in order to connect banks with the SMEs is essential. Establish policy bank for SMEs. Create favorable conditions for SMEs by having suitable production space. - Technology support In terms of finance, the state budget should increase investment in developing technological capability for enterprises. From the aspect of cooperation with foreign investment firms in technology transfer, the state promotes technology transfer activities from large corporations to SMEs. In terms of legal support in technology, it is needed to develop standards of product quality oriented to approach to international level as a basis for the development orientation. 4.4.2. The solutions for mitigating the negative impacts of foreign direct investment on the manufacturing industry in Vietnam 4.4.2.1. FDI policy needs to minimize attracting FDI into low-tech and low added value sectors Some low-tech industries need to restrict attracting FDI as the food processing, tobacco, leather and imitation leather industry. The textile industry has been given priority to attract FDI because this industry remains one of the industries contributing to solve the employment for many workers in the economy. FDI policy needs to focus on the new shifting trend of FDI inflows in the world today. Vietnam should avoid outdated technology, environmental pollution technology from China. 4.4.2.2. Enhancing the efficiency of technology transfer Ensuring favorable trading environment, rapidly forming technology markets; developing some services for advisory, brokerage and technology trading, expertise, technology valuation; developing legal services for intellectual property and other legal services related to technology trading. 4.4.2.3. The support of the State to the fledgling industries In order to help these industries enhance the competitiveness, survive and develop, it 25 26 Conclusions In presence and future, the manufacturing industry is a key sector in the economy and the industry in Vietnam. FDI capital is always viewed as the critical external resources to promote the economic development in Vietnam. Therefore, the studies of FDI in the manufacturing industry will be continued received a lot of attentions. 1. Overview of international and internal research related to FDI in the manufacturing industries. Affirm the position and role of the manufacturing industry in Vietnam in the whole economy and industry in Vietnam. Simultaneously analyzing and presenting the reality of FDI attracting in the manufacturing industry in Vietnam with updated and complete data. firms and domestic firms have negative impacts on reducing the output of this sector. Only high-qualified manufacturing industry is not negatively impacted. 4. The thesis points out and analyzes some limitations and causes of these limitations of the FDT impacts on the manufacturing industry in Vietnam. 5. The thesis has clearly analyzed the influence of the national and international context to FDI inflows into the manufacturing industry in Vietnam. At the same time, the thesis also indicates development strategy, oriented to attract FDI into the manufacturing industry in Vietnam. 6. The thesis gives viewpoints on utilizing the positive impacts and mitigating the negative impacts of FDI on the manufacturing industry 2. The thesis has codified the general theory of FDI capital and built the theoretical framework for analyzing the impacts of FDI on the manufacturing industry on both direct and indirect aspects. 7. The thesis also suggests a system of solutions: (1) The solutions on utilizing the positive impacts and (2) The solutions on limiting the negative impacts of FDI on the manufacturing industry in Vietnam. Direct impacts includes: (1) The impact on total capital; (2) The impact on the growth of the manufacturing industry; (3) The impact on economic restructuring in the manufacturing industry; (4) The impact on promoting export in manufacturing industry; (5) The impact on the contribution to the state budget and job creating in the manufacturing industry; (6) The impact on the formation of new industries in the manufacturing industry; (7) The impact on the formation and development of supporting industries for the manufacturing industry. Indirect impacts includes 4 transmission channels: (1) Competition channel by putting competitive pressure on enterprises in the manufacturing industry (2) Technology transfer and Research and Development; (3) Training and movement of human resources; (4) Vertical and horizontal linkages among enterprises. In the course of the study, although the authors had difficulty in data and research methods because this is the first study to systematically research the manufacturing industry in Vietnam, with all efforts and the help from the mentor and the agency involved, the thesis was completed to provide a useful tool for the managers, the policy makers to apply to develop the manufacturing industry, contributing to the industry development towards modernization in Vietnam. Simultaneously thesis has also developed the statistical norm groups and the econometric model as a tool to analyze the impacts of direct and indirect FDI on the manufacturing industry. 3. Analyzing and assessing the impacts of FDI on the manufacturing industry in Vietnam on direct and indirect aspect. By analyzing the reality and test results of the impacts of FDI, it is shown that FDI contributes to productivity growth, export promotion and economic restructuring of the industry reasonably. On the sector levels: Manufacturing industry level 2, level 3, the low and medium-tech manufacturing industry level 3, forward linkages and backward linkages between FDI 27 28