Thâm hụt thương mại của việt nam với trung quốc từ năm 2007-2010

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TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S LECTURER: DR. TU THUY ANH FO R E IGN TR A D E UN IV E RS IT Y - H A NO I – S U M M ER 2 0 1 1 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 Abstract Trade deficit in general and trade deficit with China is one of the highly concerned problems of Vietnam macro-economy because long-term trade deficit leads to the situation of being dependent on foreign economies, the imbalance of BOP, hence, the whole economy. Examining the severity of the situation and finding the solutions to the problem is necessary for our sustained economic development. In our research, firstly, we will analyze the real situation of trade deficit with China with related facts and figures. Secondly, we explained the reasons for the huge trade deficit with China. Finally, we will suggest some short-term and long-term solutions to the trade deficit problem. We do this research in order to give readers the insights, to some extent, into the trade deficit with China of Vietnam. 1 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 2 The situation of Vietnam’s trade deficit with China ............................................... 4 1.1 Trade deficit in Vietnam in general ....................................................................... 4 1.2 trade deficit with China ............................................................................................... 7 Reasons for the situation of trade deficit with China in Vietnam .................. 11 2.1 Exporting low-added value goods, importing high –value goods .......... 11 2.2 The inefficiency and ineffectiveness of domestic productions and investments............................................................................................................................... 13 3 4 2.3 Chinese various in kinds and low in price goods .......................................... 14 2.4 The appreciation of Chinese currency ............................................................... 15 2.5 WTO and commitments ........................................................................................... 17 Solutions for the problem of trade deficit with China of Vietnam ................ 18 3.1 Exchange Rate Tool.................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Capital in-flow and out-flow control .................................................................. 19 3.3 Exporting Spurs ........................................................................................................... 20 3.4 Some other solutions ................................................................................................ 21 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 22 2 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S Student Phạm Thanh Hải Nguyễn Thị Quỳnh Mai Phan Thị Diệu Linh ID 0851050064 0851050049 0851050046 3 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 1 THE SITUATION OF VIETNAM’S TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA 1.1 TRADE DEFICIT IN VIETNAM IN GENERAL Since opening the economy, Vietnam’s trade has increased rapidly. From 1995 to 2008, in average, the amount of export increased by 18.7%/year while import increased by 20.1% /year. Total amount of import from only 39.3% of GDP in 1995 increased to 99.31% of GDP in 2008. Along with that, the trade deficit increased from 0.27 billion USD in 1990 to 18.03 billion USD in 2008. The increase in the export-import turnover make Vietnam’s economy more and more widen. However, there are many potential risks. The sum of trade deficit in Vietnam from 1990 to 2009 was 84 billion USD, which was larger than GDP in 2008. The ratio trade deficit over GDP is much larger than other countries in the world. Year Export (mill USD) Import (mill USD) GDP (mill USD) 1995 5448.9 8155.4 20736.2 1996 7255.9 11143.6 24657.5 1997 9185.0 11592.3 26843.7 1998 9360.3 11499.6 27209.6 1999 11541.4 11742.1 28683.7 4 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2000 14482.7 15636.5 31172.5 2001 15029.2 16218.0 32685.2 2002 16706.1 19745.6 35058.2 2003 20149.3 25255.8 38867.1 2004 26485.0 31968.8 45404.4 2005 32447.1 36761.1 52426.9 2006 39826.2 44891.1 59716.0 2007 48561.4 62764.7 68435.2 2008 62685.1 80713.8 81269.6 2011 Sources: World Bank data, GSO Vietnam Trade deficit in Vietnam (million USD) 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 Trade deficit 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 19951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008 5 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 Trade deficit in other countries in 2008 (million USD) Vietnam Japan USA China Australia Singapore Taiwan Germany Thai Korea Malaysia UK France -15000 France Trade deficit -56 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 Malaysi Germa Singap Australi Korea Thai Taiwan China USA a ny ore a 934 -823 -4912 -3248 298 -5132 -2172 1227 -11532 8346 UK Vietna m -1176 18028 Japan Source : World Bank Import structure: Most of the imported goods of Vietnam are machinery and raw materials; consumer goods make up less than 10%. Since 2000, imported consumer goods make up 6-8%, while the number of raw materials is 60-67%. At the moment, because of being a developing country, the need of raw material as well as machinery is increasing year by year along with the raise of GDP. Total 2005 2006 2007 2008 Mill.USD % Mill.USD % Mill.USD % Mill.USD % 25.3 11040.8 24.6 17966.2 28.6 22566.7 29.3 64.4 28463.3 63.4 38822.4 61.9 49149.2 60.9 Machinery, 9285.3 instrument, accessory Fuels, raw 23663.9 20000 material 6 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2992.5 Consumer 8.2 3508.4 7.8 4660.1 7.4 2011 6269.9 7.8 goods Source: 1.2 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA In recent years, the amount of imported goods has increased sharply from 329 million USD in 1995 to 15973 million USD in 2008. It made up more than 90% of the total amount of trade deficit of Vietnam. However, it is only official figure. If the amount of goods smuggled cross borders and goods imported by way of quota are counted, the number will be higher. The problem here is that the rate of the increase in imported goods from China is faster and faster while the amount of exported goods stays the same. China Import and Export from 1995 to 2008 18000 Amount of goods (mill USD) 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Export 361.9 340.2 474.1 440.1 746.4 1536.4 1417.4 1518.3 1883.1 2899.1 3228.1 3242.8 3646.1 4850.1 Import 329.7 329 404.4 515 673.1 1401.1 1606.2 2158.8 3138.6 4595.1 5899.7 7391.3 12710 15974 7 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 Imports of goods by country and group Amount of goods (mill USD) 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 China USA Japan Germany ASEAN APEC EU 2006 7391.3 987 4702.1 914.5 12546.6 37467.7 3129.2 2007 12710 1700.5 6188.9 1308.5 15908.2 52637.9 5142.4 2008 15973.6 2646.6 8240.3 1479.9 19567.7 67232.2 5581.5 In 2007, the trade deficit with China of Vietnam is 9.145 billion USD, making up 64% of the total amount of trade deficit. In 2008, the figure is 11.16 billion USD and 61% respectively. In 2010, trade deficit with China was raise to red alert: 12.6 billion USD, which was equal 105% of the total amount of trade deficit in 2009. Therefore, Vietnam has failed to decrease the unbalance in trade balance between Vietnam and China. In 1991, Vietnam mainly traded with Soviet and the socialist countries of Eastern Europe, through SEV. After the socialist countries collapsed, Vietnam has diverted trade to other countries such as EU, USA, Australia, Canada, ASEAN, Japan, Korea, etc. A series of commitments such as FTA, WTO, and AFTA were signed. After the diversion, trade deficit has been increasing significantly. In 2000, trade surplus from China of Vietnam is 135 million USD. But in 2001, the trade balance switched to deficit of 200 million USD. From then on, the imports from China have increased sharply. Chinese goods flood Vietnamese market. Although Vietnam has trade relations with more than 200 countries and territories, China supplies ¼ raw materials for Vietnam economy. 8 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 In the late of 2009, according to the statistics of Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam exported mineral materials such as coal, rubber and crude oil to China; making up 55% of the overall exports. However, the export of this commodity group has to be reduced to ensure the energy security. In 2009, crude oil was decreased 24% and in 2010 coal was decreased 50% compared to 2009. Types 2009 Amount (Tons) 2010 Price (1000 Amount (Tons) USD) Price (1000 USD) Crude oil 1,032,921 462,623.331 593,997 367,631.9 Coal 20,453,501 935,843.407 14,644,571 961,855.12 Rubber 510,245 856,712.92 464,372 1,420,788.726 Mineral 1,670,233 103,632.823 1,399,846 101,915.301 124,857.336 Aquatic 162,557.6 products Coffee 17,396 Total 24,885.623 4,909,025.328 26,499 39,361.779 7,308,800.253 Main products exported to China 9 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S Types 2009 2011 2010 Amount Price (Tons) USD) Petroleum 2,431,836 1,290,162.315 1,523,028 1,060,887.897 Gas 348,938 201,283.937 318,375 246,794.803 Fertilizer 1,951,305 596,025.776 1,712,004 603,399.522 (Tons) 1,309,888 Iron and steel Computers, electronic 815,662.347 Price (1000 USD) 2,218,368.109 1,565,975.737 Textile products and (1000 Amount 2,188,545 1,519,043.538 1,463,551.047 1,682,616.402 4,155,283.341 4,477,616.444 16,440,951.8 20,018,827.001 spare parts Machinery, equipment, tools, spare parts Total Main products imported from China 10 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 Compensating for this decline, Vietnam has only agricultural, aquatic and industrial product. Nevertheless, agricultural and aquatic product made up only 15% of exports to China. Most Vietnamese exported product to China is raw materials and primary processing such as fruits, rubber, coffee, pepper, which do not bring great value. Meanwhile, Chinese imported products are essential goods such as machinery, components, spare parts and home consuming goods. Therefore, Chinese imported products have increased overtime. The list of Chinese goods that Vietnam has been dependent is becoming more sensitive and has close ties to the deep veins of the economy. For example, Vietnam has intention to increase the purchasing of electricity from China, with the ratio of 4% of total demand. Overall, Chinese imported goods has been increasing year by year. Vietnam is now more dependent on China than ever. 2 REASONS FOR THE SITUATION OF TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA IN VIETNAM 2.1 EXPORTING LOW-ADDED VALUE GOODS, IMPORTING HIGH –VALUE GOODS The main exported goods of Vietnam such as shoes, pepper, coffee bean, cashew, rice have low value added in the value chain; therefore, their contributions to the export value are comparatively low. Moreover, the export of these goods has to depend on the equivalent input materials imported from China. 11 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 Source: From the figures of main import and export goods in 2010 of the GSO of Vietnam, it can be inferred that most of the main exported goods into China have relatively low value in comparison with the necessary equivalents inputs imported from China. For example, we export crude oil for more than 350 million USD but at the same time import refined oil for more than 1 billion USD. Similarly, we export shoes for more than 3 million but import shoes and shoes’ materials for 671 million. Worse still, in garment and textile, we export for about 93 million USD but import for 2,218 million USD. 12 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 2.2 THE INEFFICIENCY AND INEFFECTIVENESS OF DOMESTIC PRODUCTIONS AND INVESTMENTS Firstly, basing on the Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR), Vietnam has a rather high ratio. ICOR = The higher the ratio is, the less efficient the investment becomes. ANNUAL AVERAGE ICOR 2000-2008 6 5 4 3 2 ANNUAL AVERAGE ICOR 20002008 1 0 Source: CEIC Data Company Ltd: and IMF staff calculations It can be inferred from the chart above that Vietnam had a relatively high annual average Incremental Capital-Output ratios in the period 2000-2008 in comparison with some Asian countries. It means that our investment was not comparably effective. This is one of the core reasons leading to the inadequate domestic supply of goods and services. The 13 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 situation becomes worse when the domestic demand for goods is increasing sharply ranging from necessary goods such as daily foods, vegetable, clothes to durable and luxurious goods such as cars, cosmetics. However, the domestic production is not enough to supply all needed goods and services. The domestic insufficient supply ranges from iron and steels, input material for garment and textiles, fertilizers to motor and automobile spare parts. On the other hand, domestic producers cannot self-supply some kinds of high-tech inputs, primary materials for our goods and services because of the complex skills, knowledge and know-hows required. For example, in the case of production of automobile and motors, the main value added is from the assembly of spare parts imported from China, which add up relatively low value. In this sector, import takes up two-thirds of exported value. Worse still, some kinds of products those can be domestically supplied do not meet requirement or tastes of consumers. At that time, the domestic products which meet the quantitative demand only cannot be consumed. All in all, our domestic production cannot meet domestic demand in both quantitative and qualitative aspects of the goods and services. 2.3 CHINESE VARIOUS IN KINDS AND LOW IN PRICE GOODS Chinese is said to be the workshop of the world which offer the equivalent goods at very low price in comparison with most countries in the world, Vietnam included. The lowprice is one of the most important competitiveness of Chinese goods. For example, Chinese steels are 10% cheaper than domestic steels; Made-in-Vietnam clothes are up to 50% more expensive than those in China. In the case of fresh fruits, vegetables, one of the main imported goods from China, imported value has amounted to 156.13 million USD, taking up 53.1% of imported value from foreign countries of Vietnam. Even the exclusively special fruits of Vietnam such as citrus fruits, water-melon, etc. are now imported from China. Some other goods such as garlic, ginger, carrots are half the price 14 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 of those from Vietnam’s origin. In addition, these fruits, additives, vegetables can be preserved longer than those of Vietnam. One of the main reasons of the cheap goods in China in comparison with Vietnam is that in China, the input materials are available, labor is cheap. At that time, we cannot supply input materials ourselves. We have to import, instead. Therefore, it is difficult for the equivalent or similar goods made in Vietnam to regain the domestic market, not to mention entering the Chinese market. Another obstacle to Vietnam goods is the distribution channels. Chinese producers with the advantage of low price can offer a high discount for agents in Vietnam, thus, they easily dominate our market. Moreover, Chinese goods are various in kinds, fitting most kinds of ages, tastes, purposes. For example, clothes from China are saturated in Vietnam market with various kinds, size, attractive designs and reasonable price, targeted at and dominated the market for low and middle – in come consumers. 2.4 THE APPRECIATION OF CHINESE CURRENCY On June, 2010, People’s Bank of China (PBC) formally revalued its official exchange rate against USD about 0.45%, from 6.827 to 6.7980, marking the first revaluation from July, 2008. 3 weeks after the coming into force of the decision, CNY appreciated by 0.8% at 6.7746 CNY/USD and are expected to be at 6.5 CNY/USD at the end of the year 2011. According to the Government of China, domestic investment decreased, limited import and promoted export. Considering the table below, it can be referred that the revaluation increased trade deficit with China dramatically. 15 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 Source: extracted from figures of From the table above, trade deficit with China rose three months continuously by 1.5% from June, 2010 to September, 2010 and the trade deficit of the first 9 months of 2010 increased by 46.17% in comparison with trade deficit of the same periods in 2009. Source: extracted from figures of Chinese official currency (CNY) was adjusted to increase 279 basis points during the year 2010, or 0.45% against the U.S. dollar. The adjustment often imply the more balanced BOP but in case of Vietnam, the modest increase in export turnover is eaten up by the huge increase in import turnover caused by the appreciation of CNY against VND. The appreciation of CNY, to some extent, discourages the trade flow into Vietnam but most of the imported goods from China cannot be substituted by domestic productions. For example, input materials for our main exported goods such as garment and textiles, shoes, steels, spare parts, machines cannot be cut off because the domestic market is unable to supply them. One more impact of the appreciation of the CNY is the increased foreign direct investment from China into Vietnam. With this scenario, the flow of machines, tools, 16 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 input from China rises sharply, which obviously alleviates the huge trade deficit between two countries. 2.5 WTO AND COMMITMENTS The participation of Vietnam into World Trade Organization (WTO) marks an important milestone in our economic development, which serves as a chance for spreading our wings. However, our economy has to face with rather stiff competitions from WTO’s members, China included. We have to liberalize trade by removing, step by step, various tariff- and non-tariff-barriers, which have protected our infant industries from outside competitions. The liberalization of trade barriers and commitment to reduce protectionism exposes domestic infant industries to many threats. Many of our infant industries such as paper industry, steels industry, clothes cannot compete with foreign ones. Thus, the stiff competitiveness will undermine our industries. At that time, we have to import more, which will alleviate the problem. This leads to the dramatic decreases in imported goods and services. One obvious example of the collapse of domestic industry is Viet Tri’s Sugar Company and Hong Ha Beer Company in Phu Tho Province. These two companies cannot compete with the low price Sugar from China in around the year 2000 and had to declare bankrupt. After these collapses, the sugar price increased sharply by 100% within 1 year, from about 280 USD/ton to 565 USD/ton. In fact, according to Mr. Nguyen Ba Dinh, vice-director of Cat Lai Customs Department, many Chinese agricultural products are treating at the 0%-tariff. Therefore, the import limitations by tariff are not applicable. Moreover, technical barriers to trade (TBTs) and Sanitary & Phyto-sanitary measures (SPs) have not been created and applied yet. Thus, Chinese goods freely move into and out of our countries just as the domestic goods and services. 17 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 3 SOLUTIONS FOR THE PROBLEM OF TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM The imbalance of trade, especially the trade deficit, which refers to the excess of import over export, is often considered a big issue to a national economy. Generally, persistent trade deficit is harmful to the economy while it leads to the foreign exchange gap and foreign exchange scarcity. As a result, the country’s position in international payment will be reduced. So, improving trade balance or reducing the trade deficit takes a lot of concern of policy makers. 3.1 EXCHANGE RATE TOOL There is a bund of factors that take effect on the trade balance, for constant, domestic GDP, foreign income, commodity prices and exchange rate. Among them, exchange rate is regarded as an important tool because of its significant impact on the exports and imports of a country. Theoretically, depreciation of nominal exchange rate will spurs exporting and deters importing, thus improving trade balance. As a result, devaluation is often recommended a good instrument in stabilization programmed for improving trade balance for countries suffered from trade deficit. Practically, the result may be not as expected. Some countries succeeded in improving trade balance by devaluation but some failed. In the case of Vietnam, The Dong/USD rate has remained broadly stable. The continuation of this policy in the face of persistent large capital inflows would require a return to significant foreign exchange intervention. We would encourage the authorities to allow the Dong to be more responsive to pressures on the exchange rate. 18 TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA OF VIETNAM IN THE LATE 2000S 2011 In the short run, this would ease the need for foreign exchange intervention and sterilization. In the longer run, greater exchange rate flexibility would create an incentive to manage exchange rate risks effectively, deepen further financial markets, and help enhance Vietnam's resilience to external shocks 3.2 CAPITAL IN-FLOW AND OUT-FLOW CONTROL In short-term, we can in some way depend on FDI or FII, and loan for solving the payment balance. By that way, we should continue to promote investment, attract FDI, especially for the large-scale projects; tighten the control and supervision over project implementation aiming at ensuring transparency and reducing corruption. However, this is only short-term solution while the foreign loans are always accommodated with some special conditions, which can affect other sides of the country such as the politics, social or environment. It is also encouraged to push up the overseas transfer to have a stable capital resource. However, transferring domestic currency abroad encounters some obstacles, while there are not many of business that have a large of capital budget to take risk. Moreover, the authorities should rein in credit growth and enhance prudential oversight of banks, especially of the joint stock banks that have extended credit at a particularly high pace. The authorities could direct the central bank to increase interest rates for the loans of foreign currency, reduce foreign currency sales or offer exporters above-market rates for foreign currencies to ensure an adequate supply of foreign currencies in the domestic economy. This helps to increase Foreign Currency Reserve to encourage and guarantee for foreign investors. 19
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