Đăng ký Đăng nhập
Trang chủ Tác động của nợ công và lạm phát lên tăng trưởng kinh tế ở các nước đang phát tr...

Tài liệu Tác động của nợ công và lạm phát lên tăng trưởng kinh tế ở các nước đang phát triển (tt)

.PDF
27
265
120

Mô tả:

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY NGUYỄN VĂN BỔN THE EFFECTS OF PUBLIC DEBT AND INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC DOCTORAL THESIS HO CHI MINH CITY - 2016 The work was completed at University of Economics Ho Chi Minh The scientific instructor: Prof. Dr. Sử Đình Thành Reviewer 1: .................................................................................. Reviewer 2: ..................................................................……….... Reviewer 3: .................................................................................. The thesis will be defensed in front of Thesis Scoring Board at University of Economics Ho Chi Minh at …. day …..month….year 2016 The thesis can be found at: - Synthesis Scientific Library in Ho Chi Minh City - Library of University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City PUBLISHED SCIENTIFIC WORKS 1. Nguyen, V. B. (2016). The role of institutional quality in the relationship between FDI and economic growth in Vietnam: Empirical evidence from provincial data. The Singapore Economic Review, Vol. 00, No. 0 (2016) 1650022.1-23 (23 pages). 2. Nguyen, V. B. (2015). The effects of public debt, inflation and their interaction on economic growth in developing countries. Asian Journal of Empirical Research 5(11), 221-236. 3. Nguyen, V. B. (2015). The relationship between public debt and inflation in developing countries: Empirical evidence based on difference panel GMM. Asian Journal of Empirical Research 5(9), 102-116. 4. Nguyen, V. B. (2015). Effects of Public Debt on Inflation in Developing Economies of Asia: An Empirical Evidence Based on Panel Differenced GMM Regression and PMG Estimation. The Empirical Economics Letters 14(4), 341-351. 5. Nguyen, V. B. (2015). Effects of fiscal deficit and money M2 supply on inflation: Evidence from selected economies of Asia. Journal of Economics, Finance & Administrative Science 20(38), 49–53. 6. Nguyen, V. B. (2014). Current Account and Fiscal Deficits: Evidence of Twin Divergence from Selected Developing Economies of Asia. Southeast Asian Journal of Economics 2(2), 33-48. 7. Nguyễn Văn Bổn & Nguyễn Minh Tiến (2014). Các nhân tố quyết định dòng vốn FDI ở các nước Châu Á. Tạp chí Khoa học Trường Đại học Cần Thơ, 31(2014), 124-131. 1 INTRODUCTION 1. The reason for study The research background shows there no exists any study to investigate the simultaneous effects of public debt, inflation, and their interaction on economic growth for developing countries. Therefore, the thesis “The effects of public debt and inflation on economic growth in developing countries” has been chosen to empirically analyse and investigate. 2. The aim for study The thesis will focus on the following two objectives: (1) Clearly determine the relationship between public debt and inflation for developing countries. (2) Empirically study the effects of public debt, inflation, and their interaction on economic growth in these countries. 3. Research methodology  Clearly determine the relationship between public debt and inflation for developing countries in the model and empirically study the effects of public debt, inflation, and their interaction on economic growth in these countries  Compare these effects for three samples: the whole sample, Asia, and Africa. 4. Object and scope of the research The relationship between public debt and inflation; the effects of public debt, inflation, and their interaction on economic growth in 60 developing countries in Asia, American Latin, and Africa over the period of 1990-2014. 5. Scientific significance of the thesis 2 Significant contribute to academic research on this topic and some developing countries such as Vietnam. Provide scientifically new findings on the simultaneous effects of public debt, inflation, and their interaction on economic growth in developing countries. Set up the foundations to help policymakers to issue policies to develop sustainably economy and avoid public debt crises. 6. Structure of the thesis In addition to introduction, conclusion, appendix, and reference, the structure of the thesis consists of 5 chapters. CHAPTER 1 THEORY OVERVIEW 1.1 The foundations of public debt and inflation 1.1.1 Public debt theory According to IMF (2010), public debt is known as the public sector’s debt service. Accompanying is the definition about public sector, consisting of government sector and public organisations. However, according to WB (2002), public debt is all government debt and government-guaranteed debt. The economic impact of public debt Nautet & Van Meensel (2011) note the impact of fiscal policy – and then public debt – on economic growth is always a debate among economists. The short-term impact In short-term, the instruments of fiscal policy used to consolidate budget constraints will reduce economic growth. Indeed, empirical studies show budget multipliers are positive. The long-term impact 3 Contrarily, the long-term impact of fiscal consolidation to maintain the public finance is positive. The impacts consist of reducing longterm interests due to restriction of government bond in the market and dropping risk premiums. Furthermore, low interests form fiscal consolidation will make public expenditure effectively or lower tax burden. The transfer mechanism Nautet & Van Meensel (2011) state that there are some ways in which increasing/decreasing public debt can have a negative/positive impact on long-term growth. There are three main transfer mechanisms: First, increasing public debt closely connects to decreasing government saving, leading to decreasing national net saving. Second, increasing public debt leads to high interest paying. Finally, increasing public debt leads to risks of debt default, and increases risk costs. 1.1.2 Inflation theory Definition: According to Samuelson & Nordhaus (1989), inflation is an increase in price level. Inflation rate (year t) = price level (year t) − price level (year t − 1) x100 price level (year t − 1) According to the website of World Bank, inflation is measured in consumption price index, which describes annual change (%) about the expenses that an average person has to pay for a basket of goods and services in a time period (usually a year). Meanwhile, according to the website of IMF, inflation measures high price level of a basket of goods and services in a time period (usually a year). The economic impact of inflation - Impact on the distribution of income and wealth. 4 - Impact on the effectiveness of economy. - Impact on the micro-economy. 1.1.3 The theory of relation between public debt and inflation Adams et al. (2010) indicate the level of public debt depends upon weighted borrowing interest rates, the value of domestic currency, public debt ratio in foreign currency, growth rate, and primary fiscal surplus. Particularly, ceteris-paribus, increasing/decreasing inflation leads to decreasing/increasing public debt. 1.2 The analytic framework of public debt, inflation and growth 1.2.1 Public debt and macro-balances The theory “vicious circle” Through the analysis and arguments, Samuelson notes that developing countries in “vicious circle” of poverty are too hard to escape. To break this vicious circle, he claims it needs to have a lever from outside, meaning that developing countries need the outside resources of capital, technology, experts, and management,… The two-gap model Chenery & Strout (1966) presents “two-gap model” via analysing the relationship between foreign capital and economic development. The main idea of this model is that governments in developing countries have to utilize domestic resources effectively and use foreign capital (FDI and ODA capital) as a lever to narrow “investment-saving gap” and “trade gap” The three-gap model The three-gap model is modified and developed from the two-gap model by Bacha (1990), Solimano (1990), and Taylor (1994). Accordingly, these researchers add “budget deficit gap” to the model due to fiscal deficit of governments. 5 1.2.2 Public debt and inflation in the endogenous growth model Public debt in the endogenous growth model: In his work, Barro (1990) notes the increasing in public spending to supply public goods and services as input for private sector’s production. Inflation in the endogenous growth model: In their work, Chang & Lai (2000) develop a theoretical model to investigate the impact of inflation expectation in an endogenous monetary economy. CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE ON THE EFFECTS OF PUBLIC DEBT AND INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH 2.1 The relationship between public debt and inflation Sargent & Wallace (1981) are the first researchers to suggest the view of inflationary impact of public debt in indebted countries. This view is mostly confirmed in empirical studies (Kwon et al., 2009; Bildirici & Ersin, 2007; Ahmad et al., 2012; Nastansky et al., 2014). Meanwhile, Davig & Leeper (2011) and Martin (2015) theoretically analyse the impact of high public debt on inflation. Contrarily, Akitoby et al. (2014) and Hilscher & Reis (2014) investigate the impact of inflation on public debt. 2.2 Public debt, inflation and economic growth 2.2.1 Public debt and economic growth In the strand of positive impact of public debt are the investigations such as Moore & Thomas (2010), Egbetunde (2012), Al-Zeaud (2014), Fincke & Greiner (2015b), Spilioti & Vamvoukas (2015). In the strand of negative impact are studies for single countries such as : Balassone et al. (2011), Bal & Rath (2014,), Akram (2015), Lee & Ng (2015), Mitze & Matz (2015). For a group of countries: 6 Schclarek (2004), DiPeitro & Anoruo (2012), Panizza & Presbitero (2012), Šimić & Muštra (2012), Calderón & Fuentes (2013), Szabó (2013), Časni et al. (2014), Zouhaier & Fatma (2014), Eberhardt & Presbitero (2015), Fincke & Greiner (2015a). Relating to nonlinear growth impact of public debt, there are studies for groups of developing countries (Maghyereh et al., 2003; Pattillo et al., 2011; Kaur & Mukherjee, 2012; Craigwell et al., 2012; Wright & Grenade, 2014), groups of developed countries (Cecchetti et al., 2011; Checherita-Westphal & Rother, 2012; Minea & Parent, 2012; Baum et al., 2013; Afonso & Alves, 2014; Mencinger et al., 2014; Topal, 2014) and mixing groups (Rogoff & Reinhart, 2010; Real et al., 2014; Égert, 2015). 2.2.2 Inflation and economic growth Investigations find the positive growth impact of inflation: Mallik & Chowdhury (2001), Xiao (2009), Raza et al. (2013). Investigations find the negative growth impact of inflation: Gillman et al. (2004), Gillman & Harris (2008), Bittencourt (2012), Kasidi & Mwakanemela (2012), Kaouther & Besma (2014), Bittencourt et al. (2015), Samimi & Kenari (2015). Studies find the threshold growth impact of inflation for single countries: Mubarik & Riazuddin (2005), Risso & Carrera (2009), Marbuah (2010), Ayyoub et al. (2011), Fakhri (2011), Mohanty et al. (2011), Bawa & Abdullahi (2012) and Jayaraman et al. (2013). For groups of developing countries (Bick, 2010; Ghazouani, 2012; Seleteng et al., 2013; Vinayagathasan, 2013; Baglan &Yoldas, 2014; Thanh, 2015), groups of developed countries (Omay & Öznur Kan, 2010), and mixing groups (Khan & Senhadji, 2001; Burdekin et al., 2004; David et al., 2005; Li, 2006; Pollin & Zhu, 2006; Vaona & 7 Schiavo, 2007; Espinoza et al., 2010; López-Villavicencio & Mignon, 2011; Trupkin & Ibarra, 2011; Jha & Dang, 2012; Kremer et al., 2013). 2.2.3 The effects of public debt, inflation, and their interaction on economic growth There are two studies (Taghavi, 2000; Kočner, 2015) to investigate the effects of public debt on inflation and growth while the remaining ones (Chudik et al., 2013; Lopes da Veiga et al., 2015) study the impacts of public debt and inflation on growth. 2.3 Some comments and research gap Through literature review from 2000 onwards, the author of the thesis recognises there is no studies to investigate the simultaneous effects of public debt, inflation, and their interaction on growth. Although Akitoby et al. (2014) do not clearly show the interaction between public debt and inflation, they demonstrate the impact of this variable. Therefore, this interaction can have a certain impact on growth because a shock of high inflation have both a direct impact (from this shock) and an indirect impact (via the interaction) on growth. It is a research gap for the topic on growth impacts of public debt and inflation in this thesis. CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH MODEL AND METHODOLOGY 3.1 The empirical framework The framework is started by the traditional production function Cobb-Douglas. Based on the theoretical and empirical studies, then this function is changed with the following result: 8 𝑌 𝑌 𝑌 ( ) −( ) = 𝛾0 + 𝛾1 ( ) + 𝛾2 (𝐷𝐸𝐵𝑇)𝑖,𝑡 + 𝛾3 (𝐼𝑁𝐹𝐿)𝑖,𝑡 𝐿 𝑖,𝑡 𝐿 𝑖,𝑡−1 𝐿 𝑖,𝑡−1 𝑃𝐼𝑁𝑉 + 𝛾4 (𝐷𝐸𝐵𝑇 ∗ 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝐿)𝑖,𝑡 + 𝛾5 ( ) + 𝛾6 (𝐿𝐴𝐵𝑂)𝑖,𝑡 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑖,𝑡 𝐵𝑅𝐸𝑉 + 𝛾7 ( ) + 𝛾8 (𝑇𝐸𝐿𝐸)𝑖,𝑡 + 𝛾9 (𝑂𝑃𝐸𝑁)𝑖,𝑡 + 𝜂𝑖 + 𝜉𝑖,𝑡 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑖,𝑡 3.2 Research model and methodology 3.2.1 The relationship between public debt and inflation ∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽0 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑖𝑡−1 + 𝛽1 𝐷𝐸𝐵𝑖𝑡 + 𝑍𝑖𝑡 𝛽′2 + 𝜂𝑖 + 𝜉𝑖𝑡 ∆𝐷𝐸𝐵𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽0 𝐷𝐸𝐵𝑖𝑡−1 + 𝛽1 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑖𝑡 + 𝑍𝑖𝑡 𝛽′2 + 𝜂𝑖 + 𝜉𝑖𝑡 Where ηi ~ iid(0, ση); ζit ~ iid(0, σζ); E(ηi ζit) = 0. INF is inflation and DEB is public debt; Zit is a set of control variables; ηi is an unobserved time-invariant, country-specific effect and ζit is an observation-specific error term. 3.2.2 The effects of public debt, inflation, and their interaction on economic growth 𝑌𝑖𝑡 − 𝑌𝑖𝑡−1 = 𝛼𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽0 𝑌𝑖𝑡−1 + 𝑋𝑖𝑡 𝛽1′ + 𝑍𝑖𝑡 𝛽2′ + 𝜂𝑖 + 𝜉𝑖𝑡 Where ηi ~ iid(0, ση); ζit ~ iid(0, σζ); E(ηi ζit) = 0. Yit is real GDP per capita; Xit is interest variables (public debt, inflation and interaction); Zit is control variables (private investment, labor force, government revenue, infrastructure, and trade openness); ηi is an unobserved time-invariant, country-specific effect and ζit is an observationspecific error term. 3.2.3 The estimation method of difference GMM Arellano-Bond There are some serious problems of econometrics from estimating empirical equations. So, the thesis uses the estimation method of difference GMM Arellano-Bond (1991) which are firstly developed by Holtz-Eakin et al. (1988). 3.3 Research data and selection of variables 9 3.3.1 Research data Cross-sections and time series are extracted to accommodate the panel data of 60 developing countries over period of 1990 2014 from World Bank (World Development Indicators) and International Monetary Fund (World Economic Outlook). Some missing values of the data set in some countries are filled with reference to www.tradingeconomics.com 3.3.2 Selection of variables In short, the thesis determines and calculates the variables in the empirical model as follows:  lGDP: a real gross domestic product per capita, proxy for the economic growth of a country. This variable is used in form of natural logarithm.  PDEB: public debt, a share of GDP (%).  INFL: inflation per year (%).  PINV: private investment, a share of GDP (%).  LABO: labor force, a ratio between working age people (15-64) and total population of a country (%).  REV: government revenue, a share of GDP (%).  TELE: infrastructure development. The infrastructure can be measured in some different ways such as the length of high way per square kilometer (Du et al., 2008), the length of railway (Kuzmina et al., 2014) or the fixed telephone subscriptions per 100 people (Bissoon, 2011; Nguyen, 2015). In this study, it is the fixed telephone subscriptions per 100 people.  OPEN: trade openness, a share of GDP (%). CHAPTER 4 10 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PUBLIC DEBT AND INFLATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 4.1. Introduction The main purpose of this chapter is to apply the estimation method of difference GMM to empirically investigate the relationship between public debt and inflation for 60 developing countries over the period of 1990-2014. 4.2 The variables in the empirical equation Main variables: Public debt (PDEB) and Inflation (INFL). Control variables: Economic growth (lGDP), Labor (LABO), Government revenue (REV), Infrastructure (TELE), Trade openness (OPEN). The matrix of correlation coefficients is presented in Table 4.1. Table 4.1 The matrix of correlation coefficients PDEB PDEB 1.000 INFL .031 INFL lGDP PINV LABO REV -.24 -.07** 1.000 -.10 *** -.025 .185*** 1.000 LABO -.16 *** -.041 -.33 *** -.10*** 1.000 REV -.16*** .011 .319*** .217*** -.056* -.023 .760 *** .088 *** -.16 *** .223*** .268 *** .248 *** -.10 *** *** PINV TELE -.16 OPEN Note: *** -.023 *** ** , and OPEN 1.000 *** lGDP TELE -.048 * 1.000 .424 1.000 .111*** 1.000 denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Stata software 4.3 The results and discussion 4.3.1 The Granger relationship between public debt and inflation Table 4.2 Westerlund co-integration test for the whole sample 11 Dependant variable: Inflation (Lag = 2) Indep. variable Gt Public debt Gα -4.602 Note: ***, ** and * *** -24.772 Pt *** -67.926 Pα *** -47.660*** denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Stata software Table 4.3 Granger test from inflation to public debt for the whole Dependant variable: Inflation Statistics F = 312.19*** Indep. variable Coef Std. Err p-value Inflation (-2) 0.000 Inflation (-1) Public debt (-2) Public debt (-1) Note: , 0.973 0.193 0.005 0.000 0.062 *** 0.014 0.000 *** 0.020 0.003 0.015 0.082 -0.062 0.026* Public debt *** ** 0.005 *** and * denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Stata software Table 4.4 Granger test from public debt to inflation for the whole Dependant variable: Public debt Statistics F = 1101.92*** Indep. variable Coef Std. Err p-value Public debt (-2) -0.106*** 0.029 0.000 Public debt (-1) *** 0.030 0.000 1.016 Inflation (-2) -0.003 0.011 0.786 Inflation (-1) -0.028 0.018 0.110 * 0.069 0.082 Inflation Note: 0.120 *** ** , and * denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively 12 Source: Stata software Table 4.5 Westerlund co-integration test for Asia Dependant variable: Inflation (Lag = 2) Indep. variable Gt Public debt Note: ***, ** and Gα -5.407 * *** -27.889 Pt *** -79.123 Pα *** -102.512*** denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Stata software Table 4.6 Granger test from inflation to public debt for Asia Dependant variable: Inflation - Statistics F = 454.98*** Indep. variable Inflation (-2) Inflation (-1) Coef Std. Err p-value -0.005 0.004 0.192 0.004 0.000 0.189 *** Public debt (-2) -0.043 0.047 0.358 Public debt (-1) 0.021 0.078 0.783 Public debt 0.038 0.053 0.478 Note: ***, ** and * denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Stata software Table 4.7 Granger test from public debt to inflation for Asia Dependant variable: Public debt - Statistics F = 529.68*** Indep. variable Coef Std. Err p-value Public debt (-2) -0.351 *** 0.042 0.000 Public debt (-1) 1.197*** 0.043 0.000 Inflation (-2) 0.000 0.004 0.906 Inflation (-1) -0.006 0.010 0.513 13 Inflation 0.036 Note: ***, ** and * 0.050 0.478 denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Stata software Table 4.8 Westerlund co-integration test for Africa Dependant variable: Inflation (Lag = 2) Indep. variable Public debt Note: ***, ** and * Gt Gα Pt Pα -4.484*** -25.402*** -17.131*** -16.007*** denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Stata software Table 4.9 Granger test from inflation to public debt for Africa Dependant variable: Inflation - Statistics F = 32.07*** Indep. variable Coef Std. Err p-value Inflation (-2) 0.005 Inflation (-1) Public debt (-2) Public debt (-1) Note: , 0.836 0.260 0.039 0.000 0.076 *** 0.019 0.000 *** 0.027 0.003 0.020 0.113 -0.084 Public debt *** ** 0.024 *** 0.032 and * denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Stata software Table 4.10 Granger test from public debt to inflation for Africa Dependant variable: Public debt - Statistics F = 485.10*** Indep. variable Public debt (-2) Public debt (-1) Coef Std. Err p-value ** 0.047 0.058 *** 0.046 0.000 -0.090 1.012 14 Inflation (-2) 0.042 0.060 0.480 Inflation (-1) -0.225** 0.100 0.026 0.192 0.121 0.113 Inflation Note: ***, ** * and denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Stata software 4.3.2 The relationship between public debt and inflation in developing countries for the whole sample The estimated results in Table 4.11 show public debt, economic growth, and private investment have positive impacts while labor force, infrastructure, and trade openness have negative effects on inflation. Table 4.11 The effect of public debt on inflation for the whole sample Dependant variable: Δ Inflation Model 1 Inflation (-1) Std.Err Coef Std.Err Coef Std.Err -1.27*** 0.031 -1.28*** 0.031 -1.28*** 0.031 0.157 ** 0.155 ** 0.160 *** 0.457 0.403 GDP per capita 1.034 ** Private investment 6.568*** Labor force Model 3 Coef ** Public debt Model 2 -16.67 * 0.388 0.405 0.416 1.312 *** 0.457 1.301 2.091 6.045*** 2.052 5.869*** 2.093 9.111 -22.13 ** 9.776 ** 9.888 -3.146 ** -1.78*** Gover. revenue -21.48 0.365 Infrastructure -1.85*** Trade openness 0.379 1.502 -3.091 1.506 0.366 -1.82*** 0.383 Obs 1006 1006 1006 AR(2) test 0.349 0.165 0.165 0.222 0.266 0.223 Sargan test Note: *** ** , and * 0.893 ** denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively 15 Source: Stata software Table 4.12 The effect of inflation on public debt for the whole sample Dependant variable: Δ Public debt Model 1 Public debt (-1) Inflation Std.Err Coef Std.Err Coef -0.548*** 0.033 -0.54*** 0.034 -0.54*** 0.033 0.233 -0.63 *** 0.237 ** 0.239 *** 0.091 -0.43 *** 0.123 0.609 2.246*** 0.597 3.428 2.407 ** *** 0.086 -0.31 2.215*** 0.601 2.267*** 0.433 *** -0.345 Private Model 3 Coef -0.598 GDP per capita Model 2 -0.554 Std.Err investment Labor force Gover. revenue -2.662 *** Infrastructure 0.599*** Trade openness Obs AR(2) test Sargan test Note: *** ** , and * 0.137 -2.68 *** 0.438 -2.43 0.464 -0.762 0.594 -0.447 0.623 0.610*** 0.139 0.623*** 0.137 826 826 826 0.955 0.923 0.853 0.125 0.155 0.147 denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Stata software 4.3.3 The relationship between public debt and inflation in developing countries of Asia and Africa Table 4.13 The effect of public debt on inflation for Asia Dependant variable: Δ Inflation Model 1 Coef Inflation (-1) -1.31 *** Std.Err 0.044 Model 2 Coef -1.31 *** Std.Err 0.044 Model 3 Coef -1.31 *** Std.Err 0.044 16 Public debt 0.712* 0.376 0.721* 0.376 0.654* 0.383 GDP per capita -0.205 0.232 -0.130 0.259 -0.043 0.280 Private investment 2.842 2.352 2.838 2.348 2.711 2.335 -3.275 5.048 -4.072 5.110 3.683 2.491 2.998 2.620 -1.705 2.165 Labor force Gover. revenue 3.980 2.452 Infrastructure Trade openness -1.252 ** Obs 0.537 -1.286 ** 0.538 -1.286 ** 0.534 391 391 391 AR(2) test 0.289 0.277 0.243 Sargan test 0.236 0.204 0.169 Note: ***, ** and * denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Stata software Table 4.14 The effect of inflation on public debt for Asia Dependant variable: Δ Public debt Model 1 Public debt (-1) Inflation GDP per capita Model 2 Coef Std.Err Coef Std.Err Coef -0.51*** 0.039 -0.51*** 0.040 -0.51*** 0.040 0.093 ** 0.095 * 0.098 -0.20 *** 0.046 -0.10 *** 0.328 1.296 6.125*** 1.366 0.157 *** 0.162 -0.212 -0.19 ** *** 0.039 -0.197 -0.20 *** 0.043 Private investment Labor force Gover. revenue 5.897*** -0.51 *** 1.199 6.265*** 0.153 *** Infrastructure Trade openness Obs AR(2) test Model 3 -0.49 0.202 -0.120 * 0.071 -0.121 0.252 * 0.072 -0.189 -0.47 Std.Err 0.188 -0.122 0.255 * 347 347 347 0.675 0.695 0.686 0.072 17 Sargan test Note: *** ** , 0.205 and * 0.208 0.162 denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Stata software Table 4.15 The effect of public debt on inflation for Africa Dependant variable: Δ Inflation Model 1 Coef Inflation (-1) -0.73 Public debt 0.091 GDP per capita Std.Err *** 0.034 *** 0.031 0.100 Private investment 0.464 Labor force 0.117 ** 0.222 1.077 1.074 Model 2 Coef -0.73 Std.Err *** 0.090 0.034 *** 0.031 0.102 0.455 0.118 ** 0.224 1.053 1.079 Gover. revenue Infrastructure Trade openness -0.134 Obs AR(2) test Sargan test Note: *** * , * and * 0.129 Model 3 Coef -0.73 Std.Err *** 0.034 *** 0.033 0.090 0.103 0.455 0.118 ** 0.226 1.051 1.088 -0.003 0.171 -0.700 2.798 -0.702 2.802 -0.127 0.132 -0.126 0.138 437 437 437 0.556 0.561 0.561 0.932 0.910 0.881 denote the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively Source: Stata software Table 4.16 The effect of inflation on public debt for Africa Dependant variable: Δ Public debt Model 1 Public debt (-1) Model 2 Model 3 Coef Std.Err Coef Std.Err Coef Std.Err -0.57*** 0.053 -0.57*** 0.055 -0.56*** 0.053
- Xem thêm -

Tài liệu liên quan