Tài liệu Fortune_usa_ _september_15_2016

SEPTEMBER 15, 2016 FORTUNE.COM Is Hillary Good for Business? 100 AN INSIDE LOOK AT HER PLAN FOR THE ECONOMY Fastest Growing Companies in the World 50 MOST POWERFUL WOMEN AND WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM THEM THE ACCELERATORS INVESTING BUBBLE WATCH 10 SMOKING HOT COMPANIES AUTO STOCKS GET READY TO REV THE TRENDS ABOUT TO POP P. 156 P. 59 P. 18 INT’L STOCKS IEFA INSPIRED BY ADDING FAMILY TO THE FAMILY. U.S. STOCKS IVV U.S. BONDS AGG Build for your future with iShares Core funds. Essential building blocks for the heart of your portfolio at 1/10th the cost of typical mutual funds. Smaller fees mean bigger dreams. Start building at iShares.com/build INSPIRED TO BUILD. Visit www.iShares.com or www.BlackRock.com to view a prospectus, which includes investment objectives, risks, fees, expenses and other information that you should read and consider carefully before investing. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. 'LYHUVLƓFDWLRQDQGDVVHWDOORFDWLRQPD\QRWSURWHFWDJDLQVWPDUNHWULVNRUORVVRISULQFLSDO%X\LQJDQGVHOOLQJ VKDUHV RI (7)V ZLOO UHVXOW LQ EURNHUDJH FRPPLVVLRQV 7KH L6KDUHV IXQGV DUH GLVWULEXWHG E\ %ODFN5RFN ,QYHVWPHQWV //& WRJHWKHU ZLWK LWV DIƓOLDWHVŏ%ODFN5RFNŐk%ODFN5RFN$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHGiSHARESDQGBLACKROCKDUHUHJLVWHUHGWUDGHPDUNVRI%ODFN5RFN$OORWKHU PDUNVDUHWKHSURSHUW\RIWKHLUUHVSHFWLYHRZQHUVL6 2nd-largest auto insurer 97% customer satisfaction 24/7 licensed agents Helping people since 1936 The other guy. The choice is yours, and it’s simple. Why enjoy just one cookie when there’s a whole stack in front of you? b The same goes for car insurance. Why go with a company that offers just a low price when GEICO could save you hundreds and give you so much more? You could enjoy satisfying professional service, 24/7, from a company that’s made it their business to help people since 1936. This winning combination has helped GEICO to become the 2nd-largest private passenger auto insurer in the nation. Make the smart choice. Get your free quote from GEICO today. Jeico.com _ $87O _ /ocaO OfĆce Some discounts, coverages, payment plans and features are not available in all states or all GEICO companies. Customer satisfaction based on an independent study conducted by Alan Newman Research, 2015. GEICO is the second-largest private passenger auto insurer in the United States according to the 2014 A.M. Best market share report, published April 2015. GEICO is a registered service mark of Government Employees Insurance Company, Washington, D.C. 20076; a Berkshire Hathaway Inc. subsidiary. © 2016 GEICO SEP T EMBER 15 , 20 16 V OL UME 174 NUMBER 4 FEATURES 50 MOST POWERFUL WOMEN 82 100 introduction the disappeared Fortune’s 19th annual compendium of the Most Powerful Women in Business reveals how female executives are transforming corporate America. Despite progress, the number of women Fortune 500 CEOs remains tiny. Many female C-suite stars don’t get second opportunities, ending up in an invisible corporate purgatory. Why is business still underutilizing one of its most valuable assets? B y jennifer reingol d 84 hail , mary General Motors CEO Mary Barra has led the carmaker on an epic comeback ride. But it might take more than a miracle worker to lift the company’s stock. B y Paul Ingr a ssi a Plus: Barra talks with Fortune editor-at-large jennifer reingol d about what has changed at GM— and what’s next. 90 120 more than skin deep Ulta Beauty has built a fastgrowing hair and cosmetics empire in America’s strip malls. Can it go toe-to-toe with much bigger competitors? That’s up to CEO Mary Dillon. b y phil wa hb a 128 the smart sting of sam Bee The Canadian comedian has replaced Jon Stewart as America’s most trenchant political commentator. Her secret? Not hiding her frustration. B y erin griffi t h 132 googlegetsdisciplined The search-engine behemoth has spent billions in the quest for its next hit. Now Wall Street veteran Ruth Porat has come aboard to help Google—and its parent company, Alphabet—get more bang for the buck. Can she get their “smart creatives” to fall in line? B y l een a r a o 110 ann-marie campbell believes in you 141 As Home Depot looks to the web to help it squeeze more sales out of its stores, the 400,000 associates who work in the retailer’s 2,276 locations look to one of their own to lead them. B y el l en mcgir t most powerful women: international Our rankings of the most powerful businesswomen based outside the U.S. b y rupa l i a ror a , erik a fr y, audre y shi, a nd cl a ire zil l m a n the list 116 144 B y k ris t en bel l s t rom, erik a f r y, be t h k o w i t t, mich a l l e v-r a m, l een a r a o , jennifer reingol d , a nne va nderme y, phil wa hb a , jen w iec zner , a nd va l en t in a z a r ya lighting up ge leading through chaos Vice chair Beth Comstock has an ungainly portfolio but a simple mission: infusing the future into a venerable company. B y Geoff Colv in Turkey’s aborted coup is only the latest challenge for Güler Sabanci, the woman behind one of the country’s largest conglomerates. B y erik a fr y ON THE COVER: PHOTOGRAPH FROM TRUNK ARCHIVE September 15, 2016 FOR T UNE.COM 5 SEP T EMBER 15 , 20 16 V OL UME 174 NUMBER 4 FEATURES 174 74 151 158 160 174 ishillary goodfor business? Fortune’ s 100fastestgrowing companies 30years offastestgrowing companies Swimming upstream it’sjeffrey katzenberg’s future Too fast to be stopped: 2016’s top three-year performers in revenue, profits, and stock returns. As our list reaches the three-decade milestone, we highlight some of the highs … and lows along the way. To win the nomination, Clinton tacked way left on trade and ratcheted up her anti–Wall Street rhetoric. But insiders and experts say her policies are progrowth. A clear-eyed look at her plan. B y t or y ne w m y er 6 FOR T UNE.COM B y sco t t de c a rl o , dougl a s G . el a m, v i v i a n gi a ng , k at rin a k a uf m a n, a nd k at hl een sm y t h September 15, 2016 Can a Bible-studying, love-peddling showman save SeaWorld … from itself? B y Erik a fr y His career as a studio mogul just ended with the sale of DreamWorks Animation. But Katzenberg has shaped some of the most important changes in the movie industry over the past two decades—and he’s not done yet. B y mich a l l e v-r a m PHOTOGRAPH BY MICHAEL LEWIS SEP T EMBER 15 , 20 16 V OL UME 174 NUMBER 4 DEPARTMENTS 16 Macro 22 Fair Trade China’s currency falls. The world shrugs. 12 Closer Look The rise of nationalism and protectionism has villainized free trade, but the global economic future hinges on its rehabilitation. B y chris m at t he w s 49 passions & Perks B y Sco t t cendro w sk i 41 24 Executive Read Two new books on gender in the workplace can help women and men become better colleagues and managers. 16 Vintage Gems No longer considered Grandma’s leftovers, estate jewelry is in high demand. 26 B y s y muk her jee Dinner at Your Doorstep Blue Apron is selling more than just meal kits. It’s trying to inspire a new generation of foodies. Venture Trend Tracking Our educated guesses for which crazes are fizzling and which are picking up steam. 20 Sequel-itis Why does Hollywood make bad movies? People keep paying to see enough of them. B y mich a l l e v-r a m 35 How I Got Started Kenneth Cole founded his own shoe company—then learned how to sell in the most modern of ways. in t erv ie w B y din a h eng FOR T UNE.COM September 15, 2016 63 E XECU T I V E T R AV EL Trends in air travel: what you need to know. 49 B y john ch a mbers , e x e cu t i v e ch a irm a n, Cisco Person of Interest Meet Belinda Johnson, chief business affairs and legal officer of Airbnb. 51 The Future Is Now As techies dream of delivery drones, the construction industry eyes the devices as a tool to save billions of dollars. B y cl ay dil l o w 8 B y r ya n derousse a u 72 T HE BIG T HINK How to get on the right side of the digital divide. B y l eigh g a l l a gher B y Jennifer a l se v er Auto Stocks Why self-driving cars could help the industry’s stocks do a U-turn. Tech 38 Great Workplaces Ad agency Dixon Schwabl offers both formal and informal education inside an employeecentric company. invest 59 B y john k el l 18 B y erin griffi t h 10 EDI T OR ’S DESK 188 BING! CORREC T IONS Fortune’s Change the World list (Sept. 1, 2016) incorrectly stated that Brazilian forestry company Fibria operates in the Amazon. In the same article, the company AdvisorShares is incorrectly identified as Advisory Shares. Please see Editor’s Desk for an additional correction/clarification. Fortune regrets the errors. EPIPEN: DRE W A NGERER—GE T T Y IM AGES; JOHNSON: K E V IN M A LONE Y—FOR T UNE BR A INS T ORM T ECH; T ESL A : COUR T ESY OF T ESL A MO T ORS Chartist The share of women CEOs is still minuscule, but in the boardroom there’s increasing cause for optimism. A Boom With a View Young tech companies are supposed to “fail fast,” but founders just can’t let go. B y s ta c y perm a n 44 The People vs. the Pill Pushers Big Pharma has been hiking prices with impunity for years. Come November, that could change. 54 59               Ÿ)'(-J8GJ<fiXeJ8GX]Ôc`Xk\ZfdgXep%8cci`^_kji\j\im\[%                                     EDITOR’S DESK Mixing business with politics F ORTUNE is a business magazine, not a political one, and we know our readers like it that way. But it’s hard to escape the fact that this year’s U.S. presidential election is the biggest business story running. That’s why we took space in our May 1 issue to explore Donald Trump’s rocky record in business. And that’s why, in this issue, we are exploring Hillary Clinton’s complicated—and still unsettled— relationship with corporate America (see page 74). Neither candidate gets high marks for probusiness policies—an inescapable symptom of the times. Bashing Wall Street, denouncing drug pricing, and generally favoring the “people” over business and government “elites” is the essential pose of today’s populist politics. Trump’s tax and regulatory proposals may sound appealing to many, but his attacks on immigration and trade are anathema to anyone building a global business. Clinton’s history as an internationalist offers an alternative but comes packaged with activist instincts. Both candidates carry personal baggage that makes supporters wary. Among business leaders, the impulse to choose “none of the above” has never been higher. Clinton’s business backers like to look back to the first Clinton administration, and hope for a restoration. President Bill Clinton decided early in his tenure to side with business-friendly moderates on his team, like Bob Rubin and Larry Summers, rather than the firebrand populists. He pursued a balanced budget, championed the North American Free Trade Agreement, and, after being trounced by Republicans in the midterm elections, went even further to secure welfare reform. At least partly fueled by such policies, growth during his term averaged 3.8% a year and created 21 million jobs. 10 FOR T UNE .COM September 15, 2016 This is a different era, however, and Hillary Clinton is a different person. It’s not clear who among her advisers could or would play the Rubin role, or whether her party would allow her to go there. She may privately favor the trade agreements she now publicly opposes (as many of her business supporters assume), but reversing course after the election could be politically suicidal. Campaigns have consequences. But here’s our greatest concern about election 2016: that it’s become such a nasty race to the bottom that neither candidate can emerge with the public or political support needed to govern effectively. There are things government needs to do—rebuild crumbing infrastructure, reform a broken corporate tax structure, shore up public education and training, and perhaps most of all, rebuild trust in the institutions, public and private, necessary for a thriving society. Good luck with that. In the meantime, we at Fortune are betting on the private sector to help solve some of society’s most pressing problems. That’s why, in December, we’re assembling roughly 100 Fortune Global 500 CEOs at the Vatican to talk about forging “a new social compact.” After this year’s troubled election, it all may be on them. alan murray Chief Content Officer, Time Inc. Editor-in-Chief, Fortune @alansmurray CORRECTION AND CLARIFICATION In “Can Tech’s Tattle Tycoon Trump Thiel?” (Sept. 1, 2016) we erroneously stated that Gawker “began moving to protect its assets” in 2013 and “paid out most of the profits from its Hungarian subsidiary in a massive dividend to shareholders.” That statement was made on the basis of publicly available financial documents that showed a $4.6 million dividend. Documents later provided by Gawker, however, showed that the dividend entry was made in error and subsequently corrected to $1.26 million. Because the remaining sum is not unusual in the context of the company’s annual finances, the paragraph in question, which stated that Gawker “emptied its piggy bank well before a judge ruled in favor of Hogan,” has been removed from the online version of the story. (That correction, unfortunately, came too late for the print edition.) Additionally, we’ve added a statement to the online story from a Gawker spokesman who takes issue with our characterization of finances connected with the holding company Greenmount Creek, which is controlled by the Denton family trust. Fortune said that it was “a bit of a mystery” who the recipients of one unsecured note that will be worth $12.8 million were. The spokesman disputes that there is any “mystery” surrounding that note or Greenmount Creek and says the recipients are the children of Rebecca Denton, to whom Gawker shares were transferred at the time the trust was created in 2010. PHOTOGRAPH BY WESLEY MANN SEP TEMBER 15, 2016 MAC RO CL OSER L OOK The tide that sinks all boats 12 FOR T UNE.COM The rise of nationalism and protectionism has turned free trade into an international political villain. The future of the global economy will hinge on its rehabilitation. BY CHRIS MATTHEWS An overhead view of California’s Port of Long Beach, which handles $180 billion in goods a year, primarily trade from Asia. T HE TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP is on life support, and as President Barack Obama readies a long-shot push to get the free-trade deal through Congress this fall, he may be virtually the last elected official in Washington who hasn’t given it up for dead. Hillary Clinton—who once lauded the deal as the “gold standard” of trade agreements—has spent PHOTOGRAPH BY JEFFERY MILSTEIN months trying to convince nervous progressives that she has no intention of supporting the 14-nation pact once she gets in office. (For more, see our cover story on Clinton.) And Donald Trump—the nominee of a Republican Party whose support of free trade was once more reliable than clockwork—has been calling the pact “a rape of our country.” The agreement’s moribund condition is a far cry FOR T UNE.COM 13 MACRO from where it was just last year, when it seemed that passing the TPP was the only thing Obama and congressional Republicans could agree on. Then Washington was rocked by the populist campaigns of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, which brought with them 20 years of pent-up anger over sagging wages, rising income inequality, and suspicions of corporate political cronyism. The debates’ toxicity has most members of Congress hoping the issue will just go away, lest they be labeled traitors to the American worker. The problem with this interpretation of trade deals, however, is that there isn’t much evidence that it’s accurate. “Free-trade agreements have become a scapegoat for a lot of other forces changing the economy,” says Cathleen Cimino- Isaacs, a research fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Indeed, when one ponders the changes that the global economy has had to digest over the past 25 years, from the fall of the Iron Curtain to the flowering of the Internet-based economy to the entrance of 1.3 billion Chinese into the labor force, it would be surprising if the effects weren’t felt by American workers. The government wasn’t responsible for most of these changes, of course, but votes on free-trade agreements are an easy target for blame. The harshest criticisms of free trade, though, seem overblown once scrutinized. Sanders likes to cite a statistic from the labor-backed Economic Policy Institute that NAFTA cost the U.S. FREE TRADE’S LANDMARK DEALS These are the three agreements that have done the most to shape global trade in the postwar era. 14 FOR T UNE.COM The deal: THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TARIFFS AND TRADE (1947–94) What it did: Twenty-three of the world’s most powerful nations signed the GATT treaty, creating the International Trade Organization. Over the decades the deal was opened to more nations, eventually creating today’s World Trade Organization. September 15, 2016 The deal: NAFTA (1993–present) What it did: Resistance to furthering the WTO framework forced free-traders to look to bilateral and regional deals for further tariff reduction,leading to the U.S.’s famous 1993 deal with Mexico and Canada. The U.S. has kept up the practice, signing bilateral agreements with countries like Panama and Australia. 700,000 jobs over 20 years. That sounds damningly high, but it adds up to just 35,000 jobs per year, or a seventh of the number of jobs the U.S. economy has gained on average per month this year. Even if these job-loss estimates are to be believed, the increased economic growth and trade flows that resulted from the deal mean that NAFTA likely counts as a net benefit for the American economy. To be sure, the U.S.’s nearly century-long march toward freer trade has created losers as well as winners. In the six years following China’s 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization, the U.S. lost 6 million manufacturing jobs. A recent study argued that the precipitous drop was due in part to the U.S.’s agreement to make lower tariffs—which it had been temporarily approving on an annual basis—permanent as a result of China’s new WTO-membership status. But it’s impossible to say how long those jobs would have lasted had the tariffs remained, and whether China would have retaliated by closing off its markets had the U.S. resisted its WTO membership. Most Americans recognize that protectionism is a losing hand, as evidenced by a recent Gallup poll showing that 58% of the nation sees foreign trade as an opportunity rather than a threat. It’s a vocal minority that is gumming up the works, just as it did 20 years ago when Bill Clinton fought to pass NAFTA. The deal eventually passed after he returned to Congress with fresh concessions from Mexico and Canada—a scenario many still hope could play out in a second Clinton administration with TPP. But the political will for openness has never seemed so weak, despite the math. “We are 5% of the world’s population,” Clinton herself argued earlier this year. “We have to trade with the other 95%.” A Washington that is serious about stimulating growth at home and abroad will not stay away from the free-trade negotiating table for long. HENRY ROMERO—REU T ERS The deal: RECIPROCAL TRADE AGREEMENTS ACT (1934) What it did: Ended decades of protectionist trade policy by granting the President authority to negotiate bilateral tariff-reduction agreements— a power used to reverse a 1930 treaty that many economists believe helped deepen the Great Depression. Mexican PresidentEnrique Peña Nieto met withDonald Trump, who has advocated tearing up the countries’trade agreements. Who says your desk phone has to be at your desk? Introducing One Talk.SM One number. Multiple devices. Now customers can find you wherever you work. One Talk is a single solution that can integrate your desk phone and smartphone on one number, and ring at the same time so you won’t miss a call.* With over 25 features, it lets you seamlessly move calls between phones, redirect callers when you can’t answer,* and helps your team work as one to ensure your customers find the right person. It’s another reason more small businesses choose Verizon.** *One Talk–capable desk phone must be purchased from Verizon to support some of these features. **Results based on an independent research study of 3,942 single-location firms with 1–49 employees using corporate-liable wireless service. Telephone interviews were conducted between 3Q2015 and 2Q2016 with the employee most knowledgeable of telecommunications service. © 2016 Verizon. Learn more at onetalk.com or call 1.800.VZW.4BIZ. MACRO After Mylan acquired the EpiPen, the price of the lifesaving drug rose 400%. largely tied, and federal action on drug prices is unlikely during an election year. But California’s measure, which would cap how much state health programs pay for treatments at the deeply discounted level paid by the Department of Veterans Affairs, could open the floodgates in more states if it passes. So far, Prop. 61 is polling well, despite some worries it could backfire and lead companies to charge the VA more. Big Pharma appears to be taking note: AbbVie, Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and others have already poured more than $70 million into defeating the initiative—by far the most money being spent on any California referendum this year. For the first time in a while, the rising costs go both ways. THE PEOPLE VS. THE PILL PUSHERS PHARMA DOESN’T CARE ABOUT YOUR OUTRAGE THE INDUSTRY HAS BEEN HIKING PRICES WITH IMPUNITY FOR YEARS. COME NOVEMBER, THOUGH, THAT COULD CHANGE. BY SY MUKHERJEE ON NOV. 8, most eyes will be on the historic presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. But the pharmaceutical industry will be focusing on another vote: Proposition 61, a California public referendum that could become the first initiative to draw blood from drugmakers, which have largely refused to change their pricing habits in the face of an intensifying political wildfire. While a few companies have been forced to offer lower-priced medications as media backlash hits their share prices—Mylan discounted its EpiPen in August after harsh rebukes over its soaring cost—more than two-thirds of the 20 largest drug companies used price hikes to boost revenues in 2016, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of first-quarter earnings. The public’s hands are MEGAPHONES WHY BIG BUSINESS LOVES PODCASTING Cofounders Marc Andreessen (left) and Ben Horowitz are occasional guests on a16z, the podcast produced by the powerhouse Silicon Valley VC firm that has backed startups like Instagram and Skype. Discussions cover topics ranging from emoji to Pokémon Go. 16 FOR T UNE .COM September 15, 2016 eBay Goldman Sachs General Electric Netflix The auction giant partnered with Gimlet Creative for a six-part series on startups called Open for Business. The branded podcast also plugs eBay, naturally, as “one of the first platforms for wouldbe entrepreneurs.” Goldman’s in-house podcast showcases its market know-how by interviewing a coterie of Goldman analysts on topics like e-commerce (episode title “Brick and Mortal”) and new research (“Mutant Mosquitos”). GE sponsored a sci-fi narrative podcast on the Slate Group’s Panoply Media about cryptologists decoding a decades-old alien transmission (partially inspired by GE’s work on soundbased medical tech). The streaming service sponsored a one-off episode (also on Panoply) with the creators of Netflix’s hit true-crime docuseries Making a Murderer talking about the huge public response to the show. EPIPEN: GOSS IM AGES/A L A M Y S T OCK PHO T O; PODC AS T: BRYCE DUFF Y Andreessen Horowitz WE’RE WELL INTO THE ERA of the mainstream podcast, the digital audio format steered into cultural prominence by massively popular series like Serial and Radiolab. (You know a format has reached peak mainstream when Hillary Clinton has one.) In the past few years, podcasts’ expanding audiences—Edison Research estimates that roughly 57 million Americans download a podcast every month—have turned the platform into an obvious destination for Big Business. Here’s a look at some of the companies using podcasts for brand building. —TOM HUDDLESTON JR.                   5LFK0HQGR]DRI)LOWK\5LFK%DUEHUVKRSXVHGWKHSRLQWVHDUQHG IURPKLV&KDVHΖQNFDUGWREX\DOOWKHIUDPHZRUNZLUHDQGSODQWV QHHGHGWREXLOGDJLDQWPXVWDFKHRQWKHIURQWRIKLVVKRS6RQRZKLV VWRUHKDVDIDFHQRRQHZLOOIRUJHW 6HHZKDWWKHSRZHURISRLQWVFDQGRIRU\RXUEXVLQHVVE\HDUQLQJ ERQXVSRLQWV/HDUQPRUHDW !& %#$"      2΍HUVXEMHFWWRFKDQJH6HH&KDVHFRPΖQNIRUSULFLQJDQGUHZDUGVGHWDLOVk-30RUJDQ&KDVH &R$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG MEAL KITS NEW YORK TECH SCENE The meal-in-a-box business is sizzling (see our story on page 44), with 150 services vying for consumers’ plates. But half of diners who sign up quit over the cost, NPD says. A meal kit shakeout could be coming. Every city has its Silicon Valley dreams, but New York arguably flew the highest and crashed the hardest with Gilt, Fab, and Quirky all failing to make a dent. It is gradually reestablishing itself, though, with buzzy firms like Betterment and Casper. PEAK OF INFLATED EXPECTATIONS INNOVATIO INNOVA TIONN TTRI TRIGGE GGERR ATHLEISURE POKÉMON It’s easy to think the athleisure craze will go on and on. The $44 billion activewear segment grew 16% last year, NPD Group says. But there are signs this is peak yoga pant: Less hip retailers like Kohl’s and even Walmart are piling onto the trend. The biggest mobile game ever had 45 million active daily users at its peak but slid to 30 million less than a month after launch. Meanwhile, shares of Nintendo (which owns the critters’ licensing rights) soared 120% initially before coming back to earth. 3D PRINTING Industry stocks have come way down from their 2013 peaks, as the concept has lost some of its sheen. But commercial 3D printing continues to grow, even if there’s not an action-figure molder in every home. SO LONG, CHARIZARD TREND TRACKING OUR EDUCATED GUESSES FOR WHICH CRAZES ARE FIZZLING AND WHICH ARE PICKING UP STEAM. 18 FOR T UNE .COM TROUGHOF DISILLUSIONMENT THE GARTNER HYPE CYCLE has become a shorthand in the tech world to describe technologies’ path to adoption. Every year the research firm places products and ideas like machine learning (Gartner says it’s at peak hype) on the familiar Silicon Valley roller coaster: First come breathless reports and inflated expectations, which are followed by a trough of sorrow, when reality sets in, and the slope of enlightenment, where the kinks September 15, 2016 ONLINE DATING Yes, they’re ubiquitous, but dating services’ growth has dwindled from more than 10% annually a decade ago to more like 4% today, according to IBISWorld. And the field is already highly consolidated. PLATEAU OF PRODUCTIVITY SLOPE OF ENLIGHTENMENT FRO-YO In 2013 it was a Main Street staple with 27% annual growth. Last year the $2 billion frozen-yogurt industry notched a much smaller 3.9% increase, according to IBISWorld, and there’s chain consolidation on the horizon. Woe unto the fro-yo franchisee. are worked out. Finally there’s the more stable plateau of productivity, where an idea at last makes reliable money. While the firm’s eponymous cycle deals with plenty of heady intellectual concepts, we thought there were a few other ideas that could be measured the same way. Here, with apologies to Gartner, we’ve adapted its chart for trends a little further afield.—JOHN KELL, POLINA MARINOVA, PHIL WAHBA, AND ANNE VANDERMEY AT HLEISURE: DONN A WA RD—GE T T Y IM AGES; ME A L K I T S: COUR T ESY OF HELLOFRESH; POK EMON: COUR T ESY OF NI A N T IC; 3D PRIN T ING: EMM A NUEL DUN A ND—A FP/GE T T Y IM AGES; FROZEN YOGUR T: GE T T Y IM AGES/IS T OCK PHO T O; NE W YORK T ECH SCENE: COUR T ESY OF C ASPER; ONLINE DAT ING: AL A M Y S T OCK PHO T O MACRO