Tài liệu Assessment of global warming impacts on paddy rice growth and yield using a process based numerical crop growth model matcro rice in thai binh province, vietnam

VIETNAM NATONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY DAO THI THU HANG ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS ON PADDY RICE GROWTH AND YIELD USING A PROCESS-BASED NUMERICAL CROP GROWTH MODEL MATCRO-RICE IN THAI BINH PROVINCE, VIETNAM MASTER’S THESIS VIETNAM NATONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY DAO THI THU HANG ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS ON PADDY RICE GROWTH AND YIELD USING A PROCESS-BASED NUMERICAL CROP GROWTH MODEL MATCRO-RICE IN THAI BINH PROVINCE, VIETNAM MAJOR: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT CODE: 8900201.02QTD RESEARCH SUPERVISOR: Associate Prof. Dr. YUJI MASUTOMI Associate Prof. Dr. MAI VAN TRINH Hanoi, 2020 PLEDGE I assure that this thesis is the result of my own research and has not been published. The use of other research’s result and other documents must comply with regulations. The citations and references to documents, books, research papers, and websites must be in the list of references of the thesis. AUTHOR OF THE THESIS DAO THI THU HANG i TABLE OF CONTENTS PLEDGE .................................................................................................................... i LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................. iv LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS................................................................................. vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ..................................................................................... vii ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................... viii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................1 1.1. Overview ......................................................................................................1 1.2. Research objectives ......................................................................................4 1.3. Structure of the Thesis ..................................................................................5 1.4. Learning Outcomes ......................................................................................7 CHAPTER 2. METHODOLOGY .........................................................................10 2.1. Framework of the study ..............................................................................10 2.2. Study area ...................................................................................................12 2.2.1. Location ..............................................................................................12 2.2.2. Climate ................................................................................................13 2.2.3. Rice variety (Bac Thom No. 7 cultivar_BT7) .....................................17 2.3. MATCRO-Rice model ...............................................................................17 2.4. Data sources ...............................................................................................20 2.4.1. Meteorological data ............................................................................20 2.4.2. Crop management ...............................................................................21 2.5. Model parameterization ..............................................................................23 2.5.1. Phenology............................................................................................23 2.5.2. Dry matter Partitioning ......................................................................25 2.6. Nitrogen response .......................................................................................25 2.7. Model validation.........................................................................................27 2.8. Global warming impact assessment ...........................................................27 CHAPTER 3. RESULTS ........................................................................................29 3.1. MATCRO-Rice parameterization and validation ......................................29 3.1.1. The effect of parameterization to phenology ......................................29 3.1.2. The effect of parameterization to Carbon partitioning .......................31 3.2. Yield and nitrogen response .......................................................................34 3.3. Impact of temperature increase on rice yield .............................................36 CHAPTER 4. DISCUSSION AND LIMITATION ..............................................38 4.1. Discussion ..................................................................................................38 4.2. Limitations..................................................................................................41 ii 4.2.1. Data gaps ............................................................................................41 4.2.2. Limitation of the parameterization .....................................................41 CHAPTER 5. CONCLUSION ...............................................................................42 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................43 iii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1. Thai Binh province weather by month and weather averages ................15 Table 2.2. Site information and input .......................................................................18 Table 2.3. Meteorological variables ........................................................................20 Table 2.4. Information of Site 1 and Site 2 ..............................................................21 Table 2.5. Crop calendar and field measurements ...................................................22 Table 3.1. Comparison of development stage index between simulation and global ...................................................................................................................................29 Table 3.2. Timing of growth date (mm/dd/yr) .........................................................29 Table 3.3. Partitioning parameters............................................................................33 Table 3.4. The difference between before and after calibrated nitrogen response index ..........................................................................................................................34 Table 3.5. Percentage different between observed and simulated yield ..................35 Table 3.6. The statistical analysis of rice yield ........................................................35 Table 3.7. Influence of temperature increase on rice yield ......................................37 Table 4.1. Yield reduction ........................................................................................40 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1. Framework MATCRO-Rice model simulation .....................................11 Figure 2.2. Map of Thai Binh administrative regions ..............................................13 Figure 2.3. Monthly average temperature (oC, line and left vertical axis) and monthly rainfall (mm, column and right axis) ..........................................................14 Figure 2.4. MATCRO-Rice model structure............................................................18 Figure 2.5. The relationship between specific leaf nitrogen and DVS ....................27 Figure 3.1. Heading date of simulation and global data ..........................................30 Figure 3.2. Heading date of simulation and global data ..........................................31 Figure 3.3. Partitioning ratio of glucose to organs including leaves (a), panicles (b) within shoots and root (c) ..........................................................................................33 Figure 3.4. Correlation between the observed and simulated yields. The orange line is the 1:1 line .............................................................................................................36 Figure 3.5. Comparison between simulated yield, yield at 4 warming scenarios applied for 3 nitrogen cases (high, medium and low) ...............................................37 Figure 4.1. Menu for adaptation options on agriculture...........................................39 Figure 4.2. Influence of N fertilizer levels on rice yield at different temperature increase scenarios ......................................................................................................40 v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS CGM: DVS: GSO: hGDH: mGDH: MONRE: RRD: SLN: UNFCCC: Crop growth model Development stages index General statistic office Growing degree hour from seedling to heading Growing degree hour from seedling to harvest Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Red River Delta Specific leaf nitrogen United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisors Dr. Yuji Masutomi - Ibaraki University and Dr. Mai Van Trinh - Director of Institute for Agricultural Environment for providing the invaluable guidance, comments and suggestions throughout my thesis. I would special thank Dr. Akihiko Kotera for scientific consulting and constantly motivating me to work harder. I am also grateful to all the lectures in the Vietnam Japan University and Ibaraki University for their support towards the successful completion of my studies in Vietnam and Japan. Without the financial support of the Vietnamese and Japanese Government which offered me a scholarship for graduate studies, this work would not have been possible. Special thanks go to all the lecturers and staffs at the Institute for Global Climate Adaptation Science (ICAS) and department of Agriculture in Ibaraki University for providing me an internship in Japan in two months which I had an opportunity to research with professionals and enjoy culture exchange. I am really grateful to them. In addition, I would also like to thank my friends and colleagues at the Institute for Agricultural Environment for supporting me during the entire data collection period and creating best conditions for me to balance my work and study. Finally, I want to dedicate my success to my family for the encouragement and support throughout my research process. I give special thanks to my parents for helping me take care of my children, providing logistical support and encouragement that no one to help me cannot complete my work. I submit this thesis of mine with great humility and regards. vii ABSTRACT Rice is directly feeding more people than any other crops. Vietnam is one of the largest exporters of rice with the main supply from Red River Delta. Rice production in Red River Delta is susceptible to yield reduction from rising temperature. Thus, understanding the impacts of global warming on rice production is essential to food security in Vietnam in the near future. This research used a reliable data of crop management in Thai Binh, located province in Red River Delta. To simulate the rice production, I used the crop growth model, MATCRORice, first the model needs to be parameterized the phenology and dry matter partitioning, then I validated by comparing the simulated yield to observe yield. Next, the model was used to predict the changes of rice production under 4 warming scenarios (1.5 oC, 2 oC, 3 oC and 4 oC). Results show that the yield reduction happened in all of warming scenarios and decline up to 39% compare with observe yields. The yield will be improved by adding more fertilizer, but this application cannot offset the losses due to rising temperature. This research got some limitation from both data and model, but it can contribute to the development of a national adaptation plan with a scientific basis. Keywords: global warming scenarios, rice production, crop growth model viii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Overview According to the IPCC in 2014, climate change that was caused by global warming, has recorded high impacts on human and natural systems during the past few decades (IPCC, 2014). At the end of the twentieth century, the temperature was recorded 0.7 oC higher than the nineteenth century. According to the conclusion of the Paris Agreement in 2015, all countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) seek the long term temperature target to protect the climate (UNFCCC, 2015) to limit future global warming to less than 2.0 o C above the pre-industrial levels (1861 – 1880). Ideally, global temperature rising will be kept under 1.5 oC (UNFCCC, 2015) due to the adverse effects of climate change that have been observed worldwide. It is necessary to evaluate climate change impacts, especially global warming to implement adaptation plans at national scale. Fossil fuel and biomass burning are the main causes to increase carbon dioxide (CO2) in atmosphere as the main greenhouse gas. So far, the CO2 concentration has increased from 280 ppm to around 400 ppm and mainly caused climate change. On the other hand, rising CO2 concentration also roots of rising temperature and changing in precipitation and this still continues in the future (IPCC, 2014). There have been many researches on assessing the range of global warming based on the 2015 Paris Agreement on many fields across the globe (Mitchell et al., 2017) and agriculture is strongly influenced by it across the world (Faye et al., 2018; Liu et al., 2018; Schleussner et al., 2018). The scientists have made efforts on mitigation of global warming to ensure the food stability in context of the population continues to rise in the next decades (Gaupp et al., 2019). 1 Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the most important food crop in the world in general and in Asia in particular (Clauss et al., 2018), directly feeding more people than any other crop. There have been a number of past studies to examine the effects of global warming on rice growth and yield in global or regional scales (Zhai and Zhuang, 2009; Chen, McCarl, & Chang, 2011; Rosenzweig et al., 2014; Zhao et al., 2016; Lobell and Asseng, 2017). The exceeding temperature during the rice growth will impact on photosynthesis capacity (Cai et al., 2018), root length (Sanchez et al., 2014), increasing the rate of unfilled grain and others (Prasad et al., 2006). When the temperature is higher, it will promote the reproductive development, thus shortening the rice growth time (Lu et al., 2008) and leading to decrease the rice yield (Prasad et al., 2006). According to Peng et al., 2004, with 1 oC increase in nighttime, rice yield will reduce by about 10% and the reasons come from the decrease of solar radiation. Other researches have shown that the future reduction in rice yields will be more evident at low latitudes than medium or high latitudes, since warmer temperatures at low latitude result in higher thermal stress for rice (Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994). Almost previous studies have shown that rice yield has been reduced due to climate change, but the extent of the reduction and the spatial variability of impacts have been controversial so far (Yang et al., 2014). Therefore, in the future global warming could seriously threaten rice yield to feed future generation in global scale, especially in Asia. Vietnam is a developing country in which agriculture is a traditional economic sector. Currently, Vietnam is one of the world’s richest agricultural regions and is the second largest exporter worldwide and the world’s seventh largest consumer of rice. Rice cultivation accounts for more than three-quarters of the country’s total annual harvested agricultural area and employs about two-thirds of the rural labor force which has been making a significant contribution to rural livelihood (Vu and Glewwe, 2009; Nguyen, 2006). Agricultural production could be easily affected on climate variability and according to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), an average annual temperature has tended 2 to increase by about 0.62 oC since 1958 (MONRE, 2016). It is estimated that by the end of the 21st century, compared with the average of the period 1980-1999, the average temperature in Vietnam may increase by 2.3 oC, annual rainfall increases by 5% and the sea level may rise 75cm (MONRE, 2016). As a result, global warming has caused the instability in rice production in the country (Yu et al., 2010). Therefore, it is essential to quantify the projected impact of rising temperature on rice yield to contribute the literature on food stability and security. Vietnam needs to proactively assess, forecast and adapt to the impacts of climate change, in order to have timely appropriate solution and agricultural economic development. Vietnam has two large rice production delta regions including Mekong delta to the south and Red River delta (RRD) to the north, which are vital to the domestic food supply. Although, each delta has different geographical characteristics, both of them are suffering from rice yield reduction because of changing climate. Climate change impacts on rice growth and yield in the Mekong delta and central part of Vietnam (Kontgis et al., 2019; Deb et al., 2015; Yu et al., 2010), however, little attention has been paid on rice production in RRD, especially in Thai Binh province which has provided largest rice in the North of Vietnam. Moreover, with a population of 1.7 million (GSO, 2012) and more than 70% of the income share comes from farming activities, rising temperature could have detrimental effect on rice production in this province, and this has led to a decline in the quality of livelihoods of people living here who rely on rice cultivation. Therefore, it is important to predict and create adaptation plans due to climate change and temperature is the key factor of climate issues. Prediction and assessment of climate change impacts on rice production can be implemented by process-based numerical crop growth models which have been increasingly developed in the recent years (Xiong et al., 2014). Some crop growth models are used as much by researchers such as ORYZA2000 (Sheehy et al., 2006), CERES-Rice (Kim et al., 2013), DSSAT (Hoogenboom et al., 2010) which have 3 judged rice growth and yield changes under different climate change scenarios. In recent years, they have tended to apply model to large areas to figure out the impacts of climate change (IPCC, 2014; Ruane et al., 2014), productivity gaps between the region and food security (Bezner et al., 2019), carbon sequestration (Arunrat et al., 2018), however, there is a few of studies providing enough information or data to assess the performance of the models . There are many kinds of crop growth model (CGM) but it is difficult to compare the accuracy between models across larger scale because each model used different plant model and input data. In this study, we used the process-based numerical crop growth model MATCRO – Rice model which was developed by Professor Yuji Masutomi (Masutomi et al., 2016) to measure the effects of global warming on rice growth and yield. With all of these above reasons, I chose the topic: “Assessment of global warming impacts on paddy rice growth and yield using a process-based numerical crop growth model MATCRO-Rice in Thai Binh province, Vietnam” to aim for evaluation of rising temperature impacts on the main crop in one of the highest rice production area in Vietnam. My research results provide policymakers with valuable information in making the global warming adaptation strategies for rice production in Thai Binh province. 1.2. Research objectives The research is necessary to choose a suitable model for climate change impact evaluation on rice production in Thai Binh province – one of the largest rice production provinces in the Red River Delta. My thesis aims to solve three research questions: How to develop an appropriate and efficient parameterization of crop growth model (CGM) performance for improvement of crop simulation? How much rice yield will increase or decrease with global warming scenarios? 4 Which adaptation measures are preferred to address global warming in rice production in Vietnam? To answer these questions, this research used the crop growth MATCRORice model. First, the model was parameterized using the crop management data for local cultivar named Bac Thom number 7 (BT7) which is one of the most major local varieties in the Northern of Vietnam in general and in Thai Binh province in particular. Next, the temperature increase scenarios were used to identify the impact on rice production. The specific activities of this thesis were: (1) to collect the data of rice crop management in Thai Binh province and climate data in this region; (2) to parameterize and validate the model to figure out the parameters which could simulate model closely to the observation data; (3) to simulate rice growth and yield by MATCRO-Rice; (4) to predict the future rice by rising temperature scenarios; (5) to suggest some adaptations strategies for climate change in Vietnam in general and in Red River Delta in particular. 1.3. Structure of the Thesis My thesis is organized in 5 chapters as below: Chapter 1: Introduction Overview the climate change has affected the rice yield in global and in Vietnam Overview some researches regarding to rice growth duration and production Overview some crop growth models Give the main and specific thesis’s objectives 5 Chapter 2: Material and Method Framework of the study Overview of study area Introduction the crop growth model MATCRO-Rice Data source to study Method to parameterize and validate the model Method to assess the impact of global warming on rice growth and production Chapter 3: Results Results of parameterization and validation model including phenology and portioning parameters, yield and nitrogen response Results of simulation MATCRO-Rice model with the global warming scenarios Discussion of strategies to adapt the impact of climate change on rice production Chapter 4: Recommendations Chapter 5: Conclusion Summarize the results of this study and give the recommendations 6 1.4. Learning Outcomes Results of the Master’s thesis Program Learning Outcomes (PLOs) of the MCCD The thesis gave the measure strategies to adapt with the reduction of rice yield due to climate change such as PLO1: Mastering the fundamental, interdisciplinary knowledge changing in agricultural management (example: planting and methodologies to assess and address actual problems (fate date, fertilizer, etc..), changing in planting crop, do the early and features) related to CC mitigation, adaptation for warning system, seasonal forecasting system, changing the sustainable development at global, national and local levels variety (breeding new variety), developing the irrigation system… PLO2: Understanding and developing systematic thinking; necessary knowledge on science, technology, innovation and The thesis used the crop growth modeling which has been governance related to CC response for development; simulated for global scale. I calibrated the parameters to fit identifying, analyzing, assessing and forecasting the issues with small regional scale and to predict the trend of rice related to CC and CCR; predicting the developing trend of CC production under global warming scenario science PLO3: Applying knowledge to solve the problems in CC and CCR: planning and approaching the works in field of CC; 7 proposing the initiatives as well as the researches on CC; implementing the solutions on science, technology, mechanism, policy and finance for CCR and development PLO4: Having skills of cooperation with personal, agencies, To calibrate the model, I need to collect the rice yield data organizations domestically and internationally to solve the CC and crop management data, hence I need to cooperate with issues, communication in works, projects on CC; and Institute of Agricultural Environment to use the data of one organizing, managing and administrating advanced career project development The crop growth model is written by R programing and the PLO5: Accumulating soft skills to self-directed and adapt to user need to understand and practice some commands from competitive working environment such as English proficiency easy to difficult. Besides other computer skills are improved (at level 4/6 according to English competencies Framework for after the thesis course Vietnam), Japanese communication skills; having skills on time Working with Japanese professors requires student management; using the basic computer skills proficiently; complete deadline in time, time management and selfworking and researching independently; having skills of discipline in research research and development; and using technologies creatively in Besides using English in communicate and writing reports, thesis; knowing a little Japanese will make the friendly academic and professional fields environment between student and other Japanese professors 8 PLO6: Having social/community’s responsibility and professional morality, especially for the scientific research The thesis results show the effect of climate change to food results; being able to adapt to multicultural environment, ensure security and sustainable agriculture and especially strongly the harmony between the stakeholders, CCR and development; impact to the vulnerable people such as farmers and the having good social morality, assist the vulnerable people to poor. Therefore, giving measure adaptation strategies is one climate change; compliance with the law; discipline at work and of the social responsibilities. positive lifestyle; having good attitude to their career in climate change response for sustainable development 9 CHAPTER 2. METHODOLOGY 2.1. Framework of the study Figure 2.1 illustrates the framework to assess global warming impacts on rice production in local area using crop growth model MATCRO-Rice. This research used the phenological and biomass data of two sites in Dong Co commune, Tien Hai district, Thai Binh province and both sites applied three different amount of fertilizer application with low, medium and high nitrogen. To simulate the rice yield, we used the process-based crop growth model MATCRO-Rice. Based on these data, we made the parameterization for BT7 cultivar phenological and partitioning parameters. After the parameterization, we run the model and the model output is the simulated yield and then we validated by compared with the simulated yield with the observed yield. This process will be repeated if the simulated rice yields do not match the observation data. Finally, we simulated four global warming scenarios (rising 1.5 oC, 2 oC, 3 oC and 4.0 oC) impacts on rice yield which can support the policy makers in conducting the adaptation strategies for rice production in Vietnam. 10